SuperGroup Plc Q2Trading Update, now there's a surprise...so in essence the entire industry cannot leverage off warmer weather. We'll ignore the fact that credit is psychologically tightening for the consumer and the fact debt has peaked again. Never mind the fact the consumers are spreading the monies wider..but lets ignore the realities, blame merely the weather.
So with SuperGroup's product mix being focused on outerwear as they call it. They're kindly giving a heads up their guidance is to pot, uncertainty in future sales, so expect a few nervous holders. We'll leave it to SuperGroup to summarise very kindly, "This has resulted in a high degree of uncertainty around the future performance of the autumn/winter range, particularly outerwear which is a significant part of the Superdry product mix." So the long's risks are now with "a high degree of uncertainty.." where's ASOS when you need something to kick? ASOS may just be thankful for their new shareholder. Expect some heavier discounting for Christmas to clear the shelves.
Yesterday, save for taking profits I did manage to get quite a few catch up calls in before I was considered missing in action. One theme seemed to be the need keep an eye on Merlin Entertainment (MERL) (read as go long). So as everyone is going long, it would be rude not to disagree, the most recent company holdings are inclined to agree with me as well. Quite why the chatter would be for MERL with what most believe is 10-15% upside is concerning...come on chaps look for better returns.
The gold buyers categorically disappeared overnight, unsurprisingly really with welfare off, and some perception of normality. With most producers incapable of producer at $1100 expect supply contractions and demand to stay the same. Gold/Silver are at a critical level again, which is support is not found 1045 could be next stop. Those with wisdom and no hindsight will have ditched their positions as soon as silver tanked yesterday, locking in profit or reducing losses. Save for one young trader being put over his boss's knee there are limited positions in the market, read that as the market is undecided on the benefits of gold. A significant change from all but 8 weeks ago with volumes and prices increasing.
Hochschild (HOC) might need a loan from the bank of mum and dad if the prices keep deteriorating. Silver shot through vital support levels with no resistance whatsoever so the squeeze is on. Can HOC keep its head above a psychologically important £1? Give over, if you were long, get in front of the mirror and ask why based on the silver price, their production costs and the outlook we'll ignore the fact parties could have read their accounts!? There's no sympathy for those that have the information in front of them. One company will be realising how cheap I was in comparison to what their losses would have been as of today! I should double my prices!
Afren (AFR) tanked yesterday on price and miss on guidance. Unsurprising really, with knife catchers in, with a buyer in the background the price movement suggested SAPETRO was absent and another party was without conviction and timing their purchases better. AFR outlook for 2015 is positive, sentiment cannot be ignored nor should trends. Trade at your leisure!
Pendragon PLC Interim Management Statement enabled the cheeky trade post Lookers Interim Management Statement on Tuesday, with a solid price movement to validate the long position it was only polite to take the monies on the news.
Sadly no time to cover First Quantum Mining (FQM) but validate the shorts party that is going on their. If your neighbours dog barks "I shorted FQM" do not be surprised....ironically the short disclosures don't match what % is likely to be piled in there. It would be wise for parties to read the Vale update.
Atb Fraser
Fraser- Hi- Re Supergroup- you can trust NXT, it is the weather that is the issue, go on trust them... the real nasty will be MKS, mark my words, my NXT contacts giggle when I mention their old rivals... a scary MKS update to follow, quite appropriate for today. My only short MKS. Perhaps they will rebrand all their clothes areas as Outlet after Xmas... :-))
ReplyDeleteRe Silver- yes, at $16/oz now, I cant think of a producer that will be making much at that level, same goes for platinum producers at $1,237/oz- this will take out capacity if the prices stay the same for say 3 months, and then we should get a rebalancing re the price, albeit its a long game for anyone betting on upwards movements here. Especially given the QE related drops in gold. Not the turning point yet for these metals.
Re TPL- some profit taking today, a normal Friday in that respect, but I did seem to get in at the bottom (which wasn't my real intention) with my 13.2p entry point at the start of the week. The expensive board may need to make real cuts or get lined up against the wall. EMED are also facing a similar shareholder move, but that appears unjustified given the new guys have only had a few months and the endless number of Spanish permits and approvals. If David R at TPL is getting $1.3mpa for his roadshows, Im in the wrong job and so are you Fraser ;-)) Both have nice assets and different problems but both seem cheap on various levels.
Cheers. The Leggie
F i give in. I took my loss on HOC & the saving was near 30%. Shame those that charge 5 a month cannot be accurate. Your ML commentary read with this really does become legendary. Are you being paid my FTML now? You should be. Thanks *performer
ReplyDelete