Good Morning, we have the joys of an extended summer which ironically was already on the cards for Next (NXT) pre today's interim management statement that's rather thin on the ground (for us shorters). The trading update at the end of September had not helped now with the Winter (warmer) its not boding well, we'll ignore for now how competitive this Christmas will be. To save certain parties emailing me an apology, its now rather obvious my comments in a meeting are now validated re: NXT; weather, margins and competition. One thing to watch for the next results will be spending on account Vs. cash sales.
Chilli Pepper and Celery Crop Study Results are out for SXX (Sirius Minerals). With a triple edged sword coming through for SXX, I'm beginning to think the market is backwards. Price (very competitive), crop improvements and surety of supply, why is SXX listed still? Perhaps those savvy UAE folks in the UK at the moment will take some wise advice and buy the thing before the value becomes categorical. Unlikely but one can hope...
Its been a busy week, flat out (scuse the pun) dealing with Estate Agents (they aren't all bad) and Auction Houses for flat purchases. Thanks to poor marketing its enabled a very savvy purchase of a 3 bed flat in Nottingham at 40% of the one next door! Albeit there's a buyers fee of 750 (a joke of a charge).
This morning I thought a certain R was bragging about his nights conquests till I reread it and realised that the Victoria Oil & Gas (VOG) have laid the pipes across the Wouri River to Bonaberi. Normally there would be a cheer, but a sense its more a sigh of relief that its finally complete. VOG are nearly at a point where there should be a significant rerating, this will be hard with the current management and issues with their partner, but all the same its cheap allowing for geopolitical and management risks, the benefits include their gas supply price compared to the wider market. Perhaps their broker knows more than I about share consolidations, with the current management and history it would have been wise to wait awhile longer. Then again....if they have buyers in the wings, who knows...
We should welcome Tybourne Capital Management to ASOS (ASC), it could be an interesting ride...buying 83,425,440 shares; I'm not sure ASC will be as welcoming. I am led to believe Tybourne is a long short fund, with Eashwar Krishnan being a shrewd investor it has led me to at least revisit ASOS for more opportunities.
Atb Fraser
Fraser- Hi again- Still happy to hold NXT and it will be interesting to see how many shares they have bought back today when the dust settles. It has certainly helped them today, with the 4.6% forward yield also supportive. The last time I sold NXT they were well over fair value for me at £25....I did have to make some adjustments to my fair value calcs over the following years... Overall, my thoughts are that if they are warning, what will MKS be saying shortly... far worse I guess. Can I smell burning M&S knickers...
ReplyDeleteRe SXX- yes, range bound now in run up to planning decisions (Q1 2015) and then financing will hold them back too, albeit they have several corporate bankers in their midst so this should be in pencil by now, I assume. 12p looks cheap, but they could drop below 3p if they get a No, even given the appeal to the Secretary of State option. They will probably draw in the hot money in the month prior to the planning decisions. Spikes expected in 12/14.
Re VOG- a marvellous engineering feat, akin to building a bridge to the Moon if you read their RNS today :-))) Again cheap, but I agree that the mgmt. here have a fair share of dunce caps and detentions to serve. The pivotal RNS involves the power company link up, which should be simple as the numbers are transformative for the power co as well as VOG, albeit they may need to drill again to make the supply more secure. Next year likely for this deal imo.
Cheers. The Leggie