Morning Mumble: Perhaps AIM/FCA could learn something from Tesco. With more cheery items to follow!

The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has notified Tesco that it has commenced a full investigation. What about AIM? I am led to believe that the FCA's investigation comes about as a result of a referral by a larger shareholder. If this is accurate, it is a true shame it takes a few more digits to take the matter of accounting seriously on the markets. I will leave it there for now, but please see my question regarding Tesco. Perhaps the FCA will ask the same questions? Was the only reason for the misstatement (overstatement as Tesco calls it) due to a change at the top? 

Sainsbury's yet again paying for Christmas. Some very interesting statements in Sainsbury's which are showing the significance of the larger grocer. SBRY's Trading Statement suggests confusion in the sector by the punters, which comes as no surprise. In essence the discounters may find themselves coming under pressure with pricing perception becoming less defined (i.e. Change happening and shoppers looking for overall value.) I shall continue playing the trend on the supermarkets, currently short but will focus on trend changes. So far every change in trade has set lower highs and lower lows, the basics required for any shorter/intra-long as witnessed on MRW's most recent up-tick. 

Associated British Food's (ABF) broker push suggest some desperation to motivate a decline. Having been short, and Christmas going to be very competitive. The savvy analysts have realised how overcooked the valuations and realities are on the market specifically retail. Await the January trading updates...

One would be forgiven for thinking what the purpose of the update by GKP (Gulf Keystone) was today, with a Petrol Shaikan Production and Sales Update. Yes, they've received some monies for the oil they've produced (I'm avoiding using the term sold as that infers a transaction or sale of a good or service with payment.) Well production is within guidance, but based on their sales today and CAPEX, one wonders how long before the current a/c's need topping up for CAPEX. One envisages a formal sales process or strategic review if pushed on the likely outcome of GKP. The company has to do something to monetise the asset/pay debts and belated payments do not do this. The local market, where one would assume a prompt method of payment as it bypasses the MNR (Kurdistan Regional Government's Ministry of Natural Resources) is not being monetised either, with US$9.4 million in gross revenues but only $5.9 in cash receipts as of Thursday (30th Sept). Almost a buy one barrel get one free...So as the muppet contingent hold the most stock, go long until the news/sp fizzles out!

Today is a sad day, I've enjoyed shorting Graphene Nano (GRPH) after the bullishness post listing, but the price appears to have now settled, with finance and a small amount of cash the company should be able to progress. The results yesterday were dire when measured against expectations and guidance and most had expected a profit. This should be considered the first miss, one will be monitoring for delays in orders/contracts to take another position. The company currently has available finance, whether this is drawn instead of a placing is another matter. (Expect an up-tick as positions close).

With trading in Precious Metals on the increase Gold eased $1206/oz. and Platinum tanked to sub $1275 (currently). Quite what the silver producers will do, as the support of $17/oz. is under significant pressure with a visit to $16.50/oz. overnight. For those wise enough to short the producer there should be some significant profits to bank. The volume increases in physical and physical ETF's imply a non-definitive answer to direction i.e. greater risks in long or short. So with that in mind, I'm taking 300pts Fresnillo (FRES) and 33 larger points on Hochschild (HOC). Both are likely to continue their trends in the short term, but banking is essential! With the majority of producers struggling, and the like of apparent demand and trades recently, the recent volumes will give an indication of the longer term direction. (Read as patience required). Albeit I'm leaving some shorts open on HOC :-)...

Central Asia Metals (CAML): Due to the significance of the Mr Robert Cathery's (a non-executive Director) sale of near 1/2 his holding (circa 1.5M shares). I have closed the spread bet contingent of my holding. The company is viable but this contradicts my earlier views (see earlier commentary in comments section.)

Alexander *(Edited as pointed out by Leggie & shut it Dave/Ian it's not evidence of proof reading requirements) Anglesey Mining (AYM) buyers made it onto my Christmas list, the company was impossible to short until 7 pence, what more could mugs want than an Iron Ore development requiring "loads of money" (Harry Enfield) in higher cost Sweden? With a rumour of a placing on-going, the SP is unlikely to perform as some suggest, anyone got a spare million or so? Iron Ore? 'Nuff said'?

Yesterday's announcement by Iofina  (IOF) did not go unoticed, the Interim Results. Its best to leave it up to the reader / investor to decide which position to take, however this is another miss, for those new to the stock it would be wise to count the number of misses. 

So over to Lance Baller, Co-founder and Non-Executive Chairman Commenting on yesterday's results via RNS:

"It is pleasing to report record revenues and record iodine production for the Period. However, we are disappointed not to have met previously stated iodine production expectations. With Tom Becker now in place as CEO and Mike Coddington returning as Finance Director, Iofina once again has a strong management team focused on increasing production at our current plants. On completing IO#6, we continue to learn from the construction and operation of these to ensure future IOsorb® plants will have reduced costs, increased efficiencies, better overall design and an improved construction timeline."

"With the design completion of our mobile IOsorb® technology and the successful production of IOprillTM iodine, the Board is excited about Iofina's future and is dedicated to progressing towards becoming the global leader in iodine and iodine derivatives. We look forward to updating shareholders on our continued growth, expansion of iodine production facilities and maximising shareholder value."

My final thought goes to BLNX's trading update. Enough said? I doubt it, so one would be wise to follow the learning curve. For myself having bought into the company and traded it significantly and now having the luxury of hindsight; had the news Ben Edelman (Darker Side of Blinkx) come earlier I would have lost significant profits. Good fortune? Luck? Or timing? Take your pick, but a learning curve not for making a profit but because I was lucky to avoid a significant loss/less profit. Lesson: Do not invest in things you do not fully understand or do not acknowledge the risks of...

With Hugo back soon, one will be able to type uninterrupted for a few minutes! The transfer of mobiles to Vodafone has not gone well, leaving myself without comms for potentially 2 weeks, albeit I've bought a SIM card. Vodafone should be ashamed of the offering, with a number of a/c's coming over from EE under one roof, they have managed to muck up on virtually everything from customer service to simple porting. So if one has no reply to messages left, I am not being rude, merely unobtainable due to the fault only of Vodafone. Apologises to Hugo for myself being sceptical and thinking "his new phone did not have internet or phone service as an excuse for avoiding work items!"

Atb Fraser