Morning Mumble: New Loans (yeah right)..Sky's the limit (boom boom) & the swallow cleared off!

New Loans, the Chinese announced that Sept new bank loans 857.2 bln yuan, beats forecast was something to celebrate. Despite these figures contradicting those that work in banks, its mystifying what is a new loan. China define new yuan loans as a measure of new lending minus loans repaid. Its still refinancing but the Chinese do not want us to acknowledge this nor the rolling up of debt. The banks, the direct measure I prefer, especially as Li has good contacts in China, suggests this new lending is the slowdown in new loans being process from previous months. Post PBC (People's Bank of China) ordering applications to be processed quicker etc...

China has significant growth and opportunity potential on the basis of sensible forecasts of growth expectations/actions. China Credit Growth Climbs as Targeted Easing Kicks In: Economy from Reuters shows the decline in growth on an assumed basis. When considering the "new loans" one would be wise to question why the PBC is tinkering with the property financing for "first homes." This was historically saved for those buying a first home for their family, however things have changed, even in the Chinese subsidised Housing schemes supporting a lot of the construction industry. One would be wise to read it, it's plain speaking but rather smacks of a little common-sense and please note PBC and CBRC on Further Improving Financial Services for Real Estate Sector

Its by far doom and gloom, on the flip side there's liquidity and the money markets are flowing in China. This will support growth and the sectors with significant cashflow issues (read as: Steel, Commodities, Housing and Manufacturing where wastage is included). 

This morning does not have the luxury of being able to assess Sky's 1st Quarter fully, with improvements across the board in customers and ARPU (Actual Revenue per Use) which historically Q1 is the lowest of the ARPU measures it bodes well for the full year. Without checking how the sale of a significant chunk of ITV impacted on the profit, they still look positive. You will note they're lacking in terms of quad-play, something BT are likely to start advertising. With price rises flowing through it questions whom is not being astute with their billing...the retentions department is well motivated to keep customers. For those not haggling for basic services you should be ashamed if you are not. Phone up, explain the costs are simply high and sort it out, even works with the FT:-). Quite why some "valued" people have to pay is beyond me! One might just be turning positive on BSY post any contagion and sell off!

Yet again South Atlantic Petroleum (SAPETRO) increase their holding in Afren (AFR) by another 15M shares. Their motivations are unknown currently but one suspect there will be a few board suggested appointments in due course. 

Base metals,+ Gold and Silver appreciating predictably, at the moment with moderate but not unwelcome increases to 1,238.57$/Oz & 17.42$/oz. BLT (BHP Billiton) progressing faster than I thought with standard listing being used to appease some FTSE/UK only investors. Quite why this was not thought of straight away is disappointing. With various analogies to the name, suggestions and commentary include RubbishCo, CrapCo and WasteYaFinMoneyCo, take your pick, it'll no doubt fly as it'll be priced to make people feel a little better!

For those following my "A Swallow of a Summer for Iron Ore" you'll note we're now back in Autumn approaching winter fast! See ASX: Price movements to clarify the sentiment. FMG (Fortescue Metals Group) gaining some common-sense (down) about any takeover (or lack of), Atlas Iron (AGO) left me closing my short on the company, aided in part by FMG's short. The Super Major's Rio and BLT suffering as well but to a smaller degree. Expect some bounce in rio/BLT on prices for today in the market. The Chinese borrowing / new yuan loans did nothing whatsoever to support the commodities prices in Asia/Australia, save for precious metals excluding the unloved and oversupplied PGM's. 

As promised from earlier in the week, Duncan's views on Tesco:

Tesco: Buy

Another day, more Directors asked to 'stand aside'. We can read this two ways, either Tesco has really been doing some very aggressive accounting for many years which will shock the market, or the new management wants to change the culture of how the business will be run and anyone that doesn't agree with that is being side-lined. We would be surprised if the Auditors would have signed off on the Accounts for so many years without mentioning the current accounting issue until the last accounts. Undoubtedly Tesco has been using the rules to there absolute maximum, but we doubt they have been fraudulent. So we assume that there is a bit of both in what is going on here, Dave Lewis will want a new culture at Tesco so he will want his team in place and can use the investigation as an excuse to exclude personnel that aren't signed up to the new culture. Thankfully we only have 6 more days of speculation before we get the Interim results, it will not be pretty, but we should start to get some answer to whether they need a rights issue, what level of discounting will happen for Christmas, and when/what the new strategy will be.

Bold is mine, its now only five days!

Sadly no time to cover Evraz , but for those with positions in Iluka Resources, Kenmare and APF (They own the Largo Resources 2% net smelter royalty) you would be wise to read them and strip out Pig Iron, Vanadium and consider the impact on steel! If you're still holding Ironveld, there might just be rumours of a saving grace but don't get too excited it's not a great uplift! More to the point, in Iluka's quarterly report KMR might just have some upside as.; expect some advancement today There appears to be some improvements in the market as Roger Bade noted, but more importantly, if one was knife catching KMR might just be worth a couple of extra pence, what say you at 17p. Speculative/High Risk punters need only apply!

For those following my BP. Short, I'm now no longer short, I've surprisingly hit my target price I thought was a little excessive. I'll sit on the sidelines for now and awaiting some news for Saudi/OPEC and the like which should support supply/prices. Contrary to what one mug put it OPEC/Saudi want it at $120 by Christmas, why he's employed raises significant questions. Yes there's a chance of anything, but really save for war and supply issues can you really see it with a massive swell in supply. 

Atb Fraser