Morning, its a strange day as over supply of yet another commodity causes a significant tank in the price (scuse the pun). This morning was an opportunity to remove any longer-term oil bets I had going but leave the equity and a significant level of shorts across the sector. Its a long time ago I was this high in cash even with shorts open across most of the oilers. The weight and lack of support in oil is important, as a trader I am short because I simply cannot call a bottom at the moment, the wiser traders will also consider the impact. Without a doubt, if there was any cheapness in the market for M&A it would be no on the basis of fear and fear alone. Expect some more movement for the leverage players in the market.
CSR 900 pence by QualComm., well what can be said for the significant change. Whilst in dialogue with Roddy he pointed out that there would be a number of other suitors for the company if a bid/offer was withdrawn. Strategically that makes for a long...I certainly owe the chap some blue nun/black tower.
AQP termination of sale with China National Arts & Crafts (Group) Corporation ("Consortium"). This rather sums up the situation in South Africa and for AQP, regrettably its at the cost of AQP shareholders. I've not like the company or costs for a long-time. Amazingly a low cost producer (Sylvania Platinum) decided to employ someone from AQP for which is questionable for saying how the both SP's have performed. In essence, AQP's lower cost $27 million (before tax) capital raising is scuppered and is now a lost opportunity. With cash in the bank it's not the end for AQP, but its not looking great either with the price of PGM's and costs on the up. if they adopted a rand reporting style the FX issues would be removed. AQP should be able to make money...but not much for a shareholder!
Limited time today as on the hoof! Shire torching many an arb + longs, I have to question the sanity in anyone being long on Shire for what potential gain? Its categorical that the upside was so limited there was either no downside or massive, which fence would you have been on? I'll copy and paste Dan's email when I have permission/time allows whom followed some of my advice. Finally, the shorts smell the risk with BG. (BG Group) despite the markets globally...
Atb Fraser
Ok confessions of a trader he was right i was wrong: Copy & paste re: Shire as request. Nice call Fraser
ReplyDelete-----Original Message-----
From: ME
Sent: 03 October 2014 07:58
To: FJP73
Subject: RE: Shire
Thanks Fraser still see there being upside on shire because of the arbs and potential but have closed if you are wrong I shoot you ha!
From: FJP73
Sent: 03 October 2014 07:50
To: ME
Subject: RE: Shire
Quite why you're long and exposed in such a way is beyond me, shire has had the money for the traders the time is now to get out before any further risks or US taxation comes to light. Having spoken with a few no one has any sense of what the US Gov+ will do with these tax deals. Please check but I think the US operates a retrospective taxation style as well. As you know, having been long, I'm now short on the basis this deal has gone on too long for binding complete. Short is likely to only cost me limited monies but if the deal is off there are massive gains. Better to be negative than positive here. F
From: ME
Sent: 03 October 2014 07:38
To: FJP73
Subject: Shire
Morning F your phone is shagged so will have to wait till the meeting monday or can you advise. Largest long is Shire at the mo: we are starting to feel there’s something not quite right having been in pharmas. Whats your vies. Cheers DT
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Fraser- I hope you made a packet on Shire that today. Only the v greedy have come a cropper on them-- the smart money was that 22/9 US pronouncement being a v v red flag for the longs. It looks like Duncan owes you a beer or two if that was their largest holding.
ReplyDeleteCheers. The Leggie
Dan not Duncan, this past month has been exceptional for negativity. Shire could well be a long now with the "meeting" perhaps mere due diligence. Not much blue and pleasing to make on LGO on the way up and down! Perhaps they can blame shorter like their other companies.
DeleteRumour: unite group potential t/o no position for me!
I've been out in the garden killing plants!!!!
Tc F
Fraser- sorry to Dan- DT means a Duncan to me. Yes a red day- poor old plants, not too short if you are pruning please- I bagged a few leaves earlier but not much news after 7am so a pleasant day reading for me- glad I took some money off the PVR/LOGP/SEA tables last week. Too many plays on one asset- Barryroe even if it is imminent (whatever that means in Ireland- I must get one of their dictionaries one day, perhaps imminently :-)) Perhaps it is defined as "eventually" for them.
DeleteCheers. The Leggie
DT if you saw potential why did you close:-) Contradictory haha Atb F
ReplyDelete