Good Morning, I had made notes to copy and pastes when this blog is returned, however it's on another computer and my 'cloud' appears to have some thunder so it'll have to wait.
Yesterday was the start of waving goodbye to London Mining (LOND),
who’d have thought a few years ago they paid a £1 divi, sold stock at 400+,
250. Now, due to various issues the
shareholders will get little
if anything for their paper. A darling, that once was strategically placed
to do well. Looking at my previous thoughts, LOND had great potential, but is a
true example of why you should be careful of changing markets. Read as: the
blind holding of shares never works when the market deteriorates.
We also had Dicks Phone (Dixons Carphone / DC.) presenting their strategy for the Group, followed by a store tour including a new
Carphone Warehouse store-within-a-store. I’m averse to this type of model (read as PR) as those that are at risk of salesmen and PR may actually be swayed by the day
rather than the facts. I’ve met a few of Directors of AIM companies in my time,
two of which have become good friends, post any investment, but I will not be
meeting any others nor will I cover, invest or change my position in those
companies I drink a beer with employees. It has enabled me to gain a lot of insight into AIM though, so apologies in advance if sometimes they feel used!
Centamin Egypt (CEY), despite having a small position from August, have come in very strong with their production.Q3 preliminary production results show improvement across the board. One could be forgiven for thinking that a company (CEY) will surpass their production forecasts and leaves one post any euphoria to consider risking more capital. Just what the market needed to stop the rot...expect some other news out of Centamin in due course if the rumours are true. Josef El-Raghy is hungry for expansion and some decent acquisitions, the time is upon the market.
The Central Asia Metals Employee Share Plan 2011 allocations today are a tad overly rewarding in my view. I fail to see the justifications, as a supporter of the company it makes one reappraise their views. With the most recent share sale as well, one would be wise to review the risks.
With the volatility in precious metals and not-so-precious such as Silver. The Chinese and Asia markets are certainly tucking in gold, not so impressively with PGM's (Platinum Group Metals) and Silver. The switch trade is suggesting from Platinum to Palladium, time will see on that.
As readers will be aware I have been acquiring Gold ETF's Physical and spreadbet in gold based on the trades today. Yesterday's considerable swing (for Gold) was an opportunity to bank some quick gains. Gold sitting at 1225,80$/Oz, something that won't change in % terms until the volumes increase; which they are doing. Indian demand, will assist...the Indian Festival and Wedding Season is upon us, so expect some support. With limited sellers at the current price the supply could need a enticement to get the sellers in the market.
Now if one was to consider the read across to the market for Sime Darby makes £1.1bn bid for New Britain Palm Oil (FT Article), expect some price action on REA Holdings...Notification regarding shareholdings of directors and of connected persons and company transactions in own preference shares following capitalisation issue, although is one of them technically a buy? With MPE's interim accounts (just recent September) showing the industry has had a kicking with a decline in price, is Sime Darby calling the bottom? I suspect so,
MPE's accounts show significant improvement in the industry it's a lofty valuation but if one gets their telescope out its clear there's significant potential for Palm. Reading the FT Article, they are of the view palm is strategic, expect further consolidation / acquisitions in this sector. MP Evans (MPE) is more diverse and has Australian Cattle holdings, which should show some improvements as well, albeit quite why one has Palm Oil and Cattle in the same company raises an eyebrow!?Subsistence fertiliser?!
Plenty going on in the oilers section...sadly not the time to cover.
Atb Fraser
I would be grateful if you published this in the hope people learn from y mistakes. I was angry because i had high hopes for for london mining. i bought london with my pension £1900 worth as a play on iron ore changing. i had not researched the company properly not realising the reduction in $ to market and freight costs. Its not all my pension just all my sipp. Once again I am sorry for the emails i cannot apologise enough for my actions and behaviour. i hope people forgive me as I could only see my losses. i need to take a long hard look at myself and my investing. Carl H I emailed this to you just so you know its me & wont again sorry
ReplyDeleteFraser- Re LOND- you are quite right re holding long blindly- not sensible, you need to be sure the reason you bought in is still valid and intact and LOND is a perfect example- if iron ore was $120/t, they would be fine and funding would be simple, but they were too slow to react and are now in the hands of the debt holders-- ditto BZM and AMI aren't looking healthy, plus that ZIOC asset wont work at current iron ore prices. Lots of others caught in the crossfire here too.
ReplyDeleteRe CAML- yes- these reflect their bonuses I guess, paid in shares as its more tax efficient but that hasn't been well communicated and so the mkt cap drops £10m on the news. This hasn't been well handled, so say the least, but I feel that the Copper Bay news in the next month or two will be worth waiting for so I will stay long here.
Re CEY- looks like they need 171koz in the final qtr to reach 420koz- that's some increase from the current 93.6koz- and an annualized 684koz, so I don't see how they can reach their 2014 target but perhaps they will blame the gov re the AN increase delay they have mentioned again here. Still overall they are making great progress in one of the best gold mines in the world and they are still worth supporting. Another simple long for me and a good play on the gold market too.
Cheers. The Leggie
Carl, I hope you see the humour in buying London for £1900, prices have gone up a tad more:-)....
ReplyDeleteLeggie, I think CEY has something up its sleeve!