This morning has been odd, my brain has been over-clocking since 2am so I was up, in the office and at it. There were a few pressing matters due for Monday deadlines so they're done and dust, mainly retail related but when giving an opinion its wise to not rush it. SuperGroup Part 2, the discounting of the brand (risks) November 2014 is now complete, with Part 1, SuperGroup The disgusting over-valuation May 2014, now being validated. Albeit my comments of putting the house on the short was perhaps irresponsible!
It mystifying how you can get to a position of yeah the stock or brand is not going to plan, without acknowledging the realities before yesterday. Most people will know I've disliked the thought of SuperGroup as a long, not because of the brand but the over valuation, the expectations and more so because mugs have a belief its going to £40/£20 a la ASOS. So without averting the need for people to pay for decent research, the summary is, when there's a warning out well in advance by many a company, its unwise to go long or even knife catch.
Last night I had pizza (homemade), for those that know me, it's a weakness of mine being forced to eat such quantities I fear I may be at risk of being the next hog roast! So, having had sufficient pizza over 4hrs to feed the average family, my body was not content. So whilst in the larder this morning, it spoke to me. So the Pizza Thief has stuck again as predicted by the wife. It did get me thinking about Greggs and Dominoes Pizza.
Dominoes Pizza (DOM) beat expectations, forget Gregg's fluke *(I may have to review that) but more so done a blinder with their October 2014 IMS. The IMS early last month was blindingly good save for Germany, which the model was ill-conceived and has missed how the German market operates. For the first time I have heard the phrase "mothballing" in the context of stores.
We will leave it for DOM's David Wild, Chief Executive Officer to summarise his expectations for the final quarter (from the IMS) "We face more challenging comparatives for the final quarter, but we remain confident of a satisfactory outcome for the year and are planning to build on this success in 2015." DOM could just be the viable model to some savvy PE chaps, save for that, they're now near the top of the any valuations I can ascertain. So watching closely for momentum to change...(negatively if you couldn't guess!).
Gold has not been disappointing but having been trading and the indicator of silver I had to shift to being on the fence, there's little support for gold currently the hedge of a low cost producer is wiser than the physical at the moment. So for those cheering at losses, as shorters are satan, my longs 1205-1208 were shut at a loss (small) but a loss. With gold steady at $1172.49/oz and Hochschild (HOC) passing that vital support, those in denial will be citing certain common sentences of it cannot go much lower and the longer term outlook looks better.
The Saturday morning final thought goes to the weather, if retailers are suffering, one assumes all those shoppers have turned their heating down? How will the profits fair? Hmmm historically important months, with October down as "warm" with November here and every window open in the house it doesn't bode well for the Energy Companies. If I do get stuck, I could shut the house down, stock up on some SuperDry from eBay and dress like an "18-30 Teenager" as Ian delightfully calls them.
As a side note, Leggie, your wine has made it to the car! Its getting there...
Have a good weekend.
Atb Fraser
Fraser- Hi- we had friends around last night so not an earlier start this am, but helping re the village Bonfire Night catering tonight, so all hands to the pumps from 5pm with 2k hungry and thirsty revellers in a v long queue no doubt. Im with the better half on hot drinks-- I just hope the marshmallows and squirty cream run out early as we have too much variety to cope... and then 2 hours washing up... its a good cause tho ;-))
ReplyDeleteRe The Weather- as I suggested on FTML, the clothes retailers need to think outside the box and 1. get the shopping centres to turn off heating and open windows (even get the air con on) to help here and/or 2. get icebergs shipped down from the Arctic to surround the UK coast... The forecast for 11/14 looks milder than normal, so some cheap winter coats all round. NXT wont go on sale until after Xmas mark my words, but MKS has already slashed their prices, according to the only person I know who would still be seen alive in their clothes sections. A very brave lady :-))
Cheers. The Leggie
Ps- perhaps the wine will arrive before the PVR farmout, which has been imminent since the summer?? Tony O Reilly has promised it this year, so 31/12/14 is my bet... My wife thinks she sighted a brown rat at the end of the garden yesterday-- perhaps Blue Nun will be an effective poison...
Leggie / Fraser - I observe that according to Wikipedia Blue Nun is the tipple of choice of Alan Partridge.
DeleteEven better is the Wikipedia mention of carbonating Blue Nun with a Sodastream!!!
Roddy
Roddy, you've unknowingly cut Leggie's wine costs significantly haha! I shall purchase him the sodastream (whose results were dire & read as cost savings are reducing for households). TC F
DeleteRoddy/Fraser- Haha- Sodastream, what a horrible infusion of gases into those "favoured syrups"- just the thought of the "drinks" we had in the good old days makes be feel rather queasy. Perhaps the idea present for a gin drinker tho... I bet Mrs P has Xmas all wrapped up there :-)) Then again it might make Blue Nun a better wine...
DeleteCheers. The Leggie
Don't be knocking Greggs, amusingly enough, I have a Saturday ritual which involves a visit to Greggs for pepperoni pizza...One of the best pizzas I've had so one to watch out for.
ReplyDeleteI had as brief look at PDGs statement the other day and whilst inline with the current market, I was actually sadly not to impressed with used car GP and same went for service gp. The also don't appear to be advertising as they should, perhaps saving money on a global advertising base doesn't get local penetration.