Morning Mumble: Churchill, a thorn in the side of Indonesia + Gold & Silver's kicking thanks to America coming off Welfare (for now).

Arbitration Update - ICSID Tribunal denies Indonesia's application for dismissal of Churchill's claims. Rather sums up Churchill Mining's (CHL) views and standing, I shall ignore the trigger happy keyboard operator whom assumed CHL's case had been dismissed. October 2015 appears to be the month but do not expect much news before July 2016. Over to Indonesia for the next set of antics. Perhaps the more recent appointments will assist the process and Indonesia in realising common-sense. With the current prices for coal, one would be wise to subscribe a sensible valuation to the arbitration claim or perhaps a compromise agreement for say $500M?

Silver was not helped by three traders dire positions, with gold being towed down on the back of silver and the end of QE. We allegedly have the Fed to blame for the absence of the Financial Welfare Model (QE) ending and the appreciation of gold being riskier (Short term view). Its so nice the FED has had leave of its senses and decided to ignore the realities of the economy and now praying for inflation.

The statements yesterday were akin to an undergraduate in Economics assessing commerce on the basis of whether beer was on or off the menu for breakfast. Hawkish was the word, disappointing for a global markets outlook would be the better phrase. So the focus is on inflation now, which won't at all be helped by the energy resource price declines and outlook. The wider consequences of low oil/gas prices will not bode well for the US if they stay low for a longer period. Its wise not to look at energy costs over a short-term comparison and realistic averages over the past 12-18 months would be best. The results and cashflow of BP (most recent Q3 results) would support this view. 

Strangely, not that my view is important to be BP, but I'm starting to turn more positive. Ian, along with his Gin, believe that what BP needs is an American Sugar Daddy, and word has it, Enron are tooled up. Ian does appreciate this has been said so many times before, but it's the first time he for some strange reason believes it. Perhaps it was the Gin...

As Roger Bade pointed out today, De Beer's are going down Nautilus Minerals route of sea bed mining, De Beers Awards Contract For Customized Diamond Exploration Ship. It had to come sooner or later...De Beers clearly thinks its viable rather than acquiring some very decent licenses privately owned by a consortium of two bit investors (Disc: Two Bit Investor).

A tangent for me, but something I've been following (no position currently) is Castleton Technology (CTP) and today it has acquisition and completed a placing. The company came to my attention due to its a share price movement announcement. Often a brilliant indicator for shorting, sadly nothing worthwhile was available to get stuck in. It has given me a kick to start researching the company properly as its apparent there's some savvy deals being completed. Expect more news from CTP as a little birdie says there's another good value acquisition potentially in the pipeline. 

My final thought goes to Mr TP from Berks, whose hopes of Hochschild (HOC) burning me to a sinder do not appear to be coming to fruition any time soon. Mr TP, you would be wise to look at the all in costs of such a company before planning my down fall; HOC is a prime example of why one shouldn't hold a leveraged play in a low/declining market. How many more lessons do people need? If Mr TP leaves his address, I'll be most obliging in sending him a mirror to have the chat with himself. Volumes are significantly up on silver, so is it a play or a longer term trend with limited demand for those whom have been holding off until they're blue in the face (sorry HSBC) to offload considerable positions. 

Limited time to look fully at Afren (AFR), with interim results coming in below guidance for various reasons, one assumes they had lunch with Next (NXT) yesterday, with the weather being blamed. First oil expected from the Okoro Further Field Development, Aje and Okwok in 2015, the month is anyone's guess! over to South Atlantic Petroleum (SAPETRO) and they know what they have to do! 

We shall ignore the commentary by Dan to look at Bradford & Bingley for an indicator of UK New Lending, as I am sure when Dan sobers up he'll remember they're closed to new lending. 

Atb Fraser