Morning Mumble: Horse Hill antics...& the leak. + Slow news Friday...

It was denied there was a leak at the Horse Hill drill, I'd actually put it as a flood not leak, proven by the various twitter comments, amazingly the estimates were well off the pace. Ironic that some parties that expel the virtues of rules and regs were so noisy yesterday. Expect some significant disappointment on the news...most punters don't understand it (myself is one and the reason I sold muppets my capital holding for zero risk). I am sure parties will be able to read the 5 RNS's in 4M locations so I won't repeat the trend. 

Back to the realities of the market, with Gold coming off as risk is on again and losing its shine a little (I know). For some reason the market needs more noise to sustain a correction than its given credit for. Those in denial will be 'bargain' basement shopping rather than positioning themselves with a more realistic cash holding. 

It was interesting yesterday discussing the Chinese real estate situation and the alleged over-subscription of Country Garden, with the Rights Issue (the press need to look at whom subscribed and supported the subscription as it does not suggest what the noise does). They have the first mover advantages and I suspect the next few will struggle to get full coverage. Promises of monies and over subscription are not always a good measure of the viability of a company. After all it takes many sheep to create a bull/bear market rather than a valued market. 

The next set of retail property will be very interesting for China, the revenues we know are significantly down in terms of taxation. Commercial property is saturated currently, so don't expect too much improvement there. Save for the Saviour Our Lord Mr Stimulus coming to their rescue with development funding...yes something that is something the newspapers should also look in to in terms of development loans. Solar was a prime example...

It was surprising to see Vale come in well-ahead of consensus yesterday, I've not had time to go through all the facts, but it doesn't bode well for the Iron Ore pricing. There's limited costs expanded on in Vale's Q3 which leaves parties guessing on the savings. 3Q14 Production Report (pdf). 

Yesterday, I was trying to think through the situations for supermarkets and my gut is saying that Sainsbury's and Morrison's have no choice re: Rights Issues now. Will this happen? I suspect so, but it will be a case of whom pulls the gun first! For the former, SBRY will no doubt have to wait until yet another plane has landed from Hamad Airport. We'll leave the lease issues that came up on Tesco for another day...

Little time today due to commitments and packing. I'm off to West Sussex for debauchery and alcohol, long those spirit stocks folks! My detox has yielded a weight loss of 2.5stone so it's time for a little let up before going again till Christmas! Hoping to make FTML but pending whether I have done my chores, for the first time in a long time I am doing the packing! 

Atb Fraser