Friday 10 October 2014

Morning Mumble: Today breakfast will be eaten, and the sun shall rise (LGO), Kicking a dog whilst its down (Coal) & not much more! Vedanta...was it surprising? Get real...

Continuing with the title: LGO is pleased to announce that yesterday it made the first sale from the newly commissioned sales tank at the Goudron Field. A total of 1,886 barrels of crude oil were shipped from the new sales tank to the Pointe-a-Pierre refinery. LGO, if the management were to change fully I could be positive on this stock. With an RNS like today's has one wondering how much time is spent on these RNS's compared to more purposeful items such as running the company.

Mothercare Rights Issue, they've raised £95M net of expenses so what is the price doing above 150? Perhaps I'm deluded, deranged and needing to purchase some Gulf Keystonee shares. Ironically that is coming about by selling my short...

For the international arbitration players, Venezuela failed to provide fair compensation for assets: Exxon. Staying with this theme, its alleged there's news due regarding Oxus Plc (OXS), this comes with a caveat that the gossip comes from a visitor to Uzbekistan. Although people will be well aware of how many times this has been suggested over the past 10 months. Perhaps this means there's light at the end of the tunnel not a train this time!

One would be wise to read the following announcement whilst sat down, no coffee in hand nor any sharp object. Yes, continuing the theme of share options from yesterday, today's award for unjustifiable allocation goes to...Yes the holders have benefited, but really 3% of the company? Circa 1.2M GBP? Obviously the Directors could argue the price is significantly up etc...but? 4 September 2013 Share Options? One would be wise to factor this into any evaluation of the company. It would be ironic this stock now got shorted...obviously their rewards would be justified? 

Can the Chinese do anything worse than reduce demand for most commodities then impose a tax on it? China to impose coal import duties (FT), quite why this was not headline I'll never know. As most on the ball have noted, Rio (Rio Tinto), BLT (BHP Billition) and GLEN (Glencore) have and will have some kicking as a result. 

In the gold watch, that's slowly becoming an irregular measure of the state of global capitalism, with declines in markets and earnings (read as fears) coming through including cars sales, retail and the like. What more does a precious metal/hedge need? Intelligence...?

Some decent news for FIF (Finsbury Foods) today the acquisition of the Fletchers Group. Due to the trading range of the stock, its almost impossible to get a decent short or long that pays well, its been on my avoid trading list for some time purely on the lack of trading. So will await some better analysis to put forward hopefully from Duncan.

On a cheery note: SE Asia Stocks - Most fall on oil price jitters, global economic woes. Could it be that with the decline in speculation (long) on commodities the realities are biting. Its clear there's a contraction in financing trading across all commodities. One example being the Philippines unprocessed ore story a few months back would have added near 30% to the price. The metal is balanced with limited over supply. The only deduction being there was limited capital available for speculation, which would be evidenced in the gold $ consolidation. 

With the significant fall of Gold, perhaps parties have been unable to buy and actually tied significant cash up (stale bulls). 2015 should enable further volumes. Safety can be had with lower cost producers, so one would be wise to make sure a Co can produce at 30% lower prices for most commodities. 

Arian Silver Corp Issue of Equity Hmmmm....a company I used to have high hopes for (4 years ago).

To leave Friday with some food for thought, Vedanta (VEDQ2 and H1 Production Release was dire. If one's toast is made for the jam I'd recommend you dry it thoroughly as it could be some time in coming or perhaps feed it to the birds! More to come on VED...One would find it hard to justify closing any shorts until, some glimmers of hope.

Atb Fraser

3 comments:

  1. Fraser the VED July ML summary justifies the price for today. The +ve being VED are not producing iron ore currently. Keep up the work quite why you are not in house for a shrewd firm is mystifying. Mother Scare about covered it sheer brilliance. Enjoy the weekend JP

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  2. Fraser- Hi- just back in and markets better than I suspected, with NY blue so far, albeit tentative.

    Re VED- yes- quite right- that was a horrific quarter- perhaps it will enable our friend to add to his 69% stake at the lower price today, but they didn't get much right at all and not a great day to chuck out a kitchen sink type RNS.

    Re OXS- I guess we are all positioned here now. I hope your Uzbek visitor hasn't got any knowledge that isn't in the public domain-- surely the Uzbek authorities are watertight in that respect :-))) The End Is Nigh placard has been printed at this end and Im ready to get down to the Uzbek embassy with it when that OXS RNS is issued ;-))

    Re TLW- hehe- perhaps they need to get in touch with a builders merchants and start selling these high quality sandstones they invariably hit. I haven't done the costings but they may be able to sell it for more than GKP will be getting from their Iraqi customers for their mucky oil. And they may even get paid one day. Is there any truth in the rumour that GKP have found an ex military Yank they know to go debt collecting for them- I can just imagine Todd dressed up like Terminator and screaming "I'll be back" as he gets fobbed off by Iraqi debtors.

    Have a great weekend. Cheers. The Leggie

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  3. Fraser- The statutory RNS from LOND but who was buying them today?????

    Crazy world. No idea re the assets, these tiny prices attract idiots with no analysis.

    Weird isn't it.

    Cheers again. The Leggie

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