Morning Mumble: Christmas bargains. The Gold tank...& Silver's woes (The Bank of Mum & Dad may be needed for HOC).

SuperGroup Plc Q2Trading Update, now there's a surprise...so in essence the entire industry cannot leverage off warmer weather. We'll ignore the fact that credit is psychologically tightening for the consumer and the fact debt has peaked again. Never mind the fact the consumers are spreading the monies wider..but lets ignore the realities, blame merely the weather. 

So with SuperGroup's product mix being focused on outerwear as they call it. They're kindly giving a heads up their guidance is to pot, uncertainty in future sales, so expect a few nervous holders. We'll leave it to SuperGroup to summarise very kindly, "This has resulted in a high degree of uncertainty around the future performance of the autumn/winter range, particularly outerwear which is a significant part of the Superdry product mix." So the long's risks are now with "a high degree of uncertainty.." where's ASOS when you need something to kick? ASOS may just be thankful for their new shareholder. Expect some heavier discounting for Christmas to clear the shelves. 

Yesterday, save for taking profits I did manage to get quite a few catch up calls in before I was considered missing in action. One theme seemed to be the need keep an eye on Merlin Entertainment (MERL) (read as go long). So as everyone is going long, it would be rude not to disagree, the most recent company holdings are inclined to agree with me as well. Quite why the chatter would be for MERL with what most believe is 10-15% upside is concerning...come on chaps look for better returns.

The gold buyers categorically disappeared overnight, unsurprisingly really with welfare off, and some perception of normality. With most producers incapable of producer at $1100 expect supply contractions and demand to stay the same. Gold/Silver are at a critical level again, which is support is not found 1045 could be next stop. Those with wisdom and no hindsight will have ditched their positions as soon as silver tanked yesterday, locking in profit or reducing losses. Save for one young trader being put over his boss's knee there are limited positions in the market, read that as the market is undecided on the benefits of gold. A significant change from all but 8 weeks ago with volumes and prices increasing. 

Hochschild (HOC) might need a loan from the bank of mum and dad if the prices keep deteriorating. Silver shot through vital support levels with no resistance whatsoever so the squeeze is on. Can HOC keep its head above a psychologically important £1? Give over, if you were long, get in front of the mirror  and ask why based on the silver price, their production costs and the outlook we'll ignore the fact parties could have read their accounts!? There's no sympathy for those that have the information in front of them. One company will be realising how cheap I was in comparison to what their losses would have been as of today! I should double my prices! 

Afren (AFR) tanked yesterday on price and miss on guidance. Unsurprising really, with knife catchers in, with a buyer in the background the price movement suggested SAPETRO was absent and another party was without conviction and timing their purchases better. AFR outlook for 2015 is positive, sentiment cannot be ignored nor should trends. Trade at your leisure!

Pendragon PLC Interim Management Statement enabled the cheeky trade post Lookers Interim Management Statement on Tuesday, with a solid price movement to validate the long position it was only polite to take the monies on the news. 

Sadly no time to cover First Quantum Mining (FQM) but validate the shorts party that is going on their. If your neighbours dog barks "I shorted FQM" do not be surprised....ironically the short disclosures don't match what % is likely to be piled in there. It would be wise for parties to read the Vale update.

Atb Fraser

Morning Mumble: Churchill, a thorn in the side of Indonesia + Gold & Silver's kicking thanks to America coming off Welfare (for now).

Arbitration Update - ICSID Tribunal denies Indonesia's application for dismissal of Churchill's claims. Rather sums up Churchill Mining's (CHL) views and standing, I shall ignore the trigger happy keyboard operator whom assumed CHL's case had been dismissed. October 2015 appears to be the month but do not expect much news before July 2016. Over to Indonesia for the next set of antics. Perhaps the more recent appointments will assist the process and Indonesia in realising common-sense. With the current prices for coal, one would be wise to subscribe a sensible valuation to the arbitration claim or perhaps a compromise agreement for say $500M?

Silver was not helped by three traders dire positions, with gold being towed down on the back of silver and the end of QE. We allegedly have the Fed to blame for the absence of the Financial Welfare Model (QE) ending and the appreciation of gold being riskier (Short term view). Its so nice the FED has had leave of its senses and decided to ignore the realities of the economy and now praying for inflation.

The statements yesterday were akin to an undergraduate in Economics assessing commerce on the basis of whether beer was on or off the menu for breakfast. Hawkish was the word, disappointing for a global markets outlook would be the better phrase. So the focus is on inflation now, which won't at all be helped by the energy resource price declines and outlook. The wider consequences of low oil/gas prices will not bode well for the US if they stay low for a longer period. Its wise not to look at energy costs over a short-term comparison and realistic averages over the past 12-18 months would be best. The results and cashflow of BP (most recent Q3 results) would support this view. 

Strangely, not that my view is important to be BP, but I'm starting to turn more positive. Ian, along with his Gin, believe that what BP needs is an American Sugar Daddy, and word has it, Enron are tooled up. Ian does appreciate this has been said so many times before, but it's the first time he for some strange reason believes it. Perhaps it was the Gin...

As Roger Bade pointed out today, De Beer's are going down Nautilus Minerals route of sea bed mining, De Beers Awards Contract For Customized Diamond Exploration Ship. It had to come sooner or later...De Beers clearly thinks its viable rather than acquiring some very decent licenses privately owned by a consortium of two bit investors (Disc: Two Bit Investor).

A tangent for me, but something I've been following (no position currently) is Castleton Technology (CTP) and today it has acquisition and completed a placing. The company came to my attention due to its a share price movement announcement. Often a brilliant indicator for shorting, sadly nothing worthwhile was available to get stuck in. It has given me a kick to start researching the company properly as its apparent there's some savvy deals being completed. Expect more news from CTP as a little birdie says there's another good value acquisition potentially in the pipeline. 

My final thought goes to Mr TP from Berks, whose hopes of Hochschild (HOC) burning me to a sinder do not appear to be coming to fruition any time soon. Mr TP, you would be wise to look at the all in costs of such a company before planning my down fall; HOC is a prime example of why one shouldn't hold a leveraged play in a low/declining market. How many more lessons do people need? If Mr TP leaves his address, I'll be most obliging in sending him a mirror to have the chat with himself. Volumes are significantly up on silver, so is it a play or a longer term trend with limited demand for those whom have been holding off until they're blue in the face (sorry HSBC) to offload considerable positions. 

Limited time to look fully at Afren (AFR), with interim results coming in below guidance for various reasons, one assumes they had lunch with Next (NXT) yesterday, with the weather being blamed. First oil expected from the Okoro Further Field Development, Aje and Okwok in 2015, the month is anyone's guess! over to South Atlantic Petroleum (SAPETRO) and they know what they have to do! 

We shall ignore the commentary by Dan to look at Bradford & Bingley for an indicator of UK New Lending, as I am sure when Dan sobers up he'll remember they're closed to new lending. 

Atb Fraser

Morning Mumble: Next (lower end of guidance) & Sirius (SXX) the market needs to wake up.

Good Morning, we have the joys of an extended summer which ironically was already on the cards for Next (NXT) pre today's interim management statement that's rather thin on the ground (for us shorters). The trading update at the end of September had not helped now with the Winter (warmer) its not boding well, we'll ignore for now how competitive this Christmas will be. To save certain parties emailing me an apology, its now rather obvious my comments in a meeting are now validated re: NXT; weather, margins and competition. One thing to watch for the next results will be spending on account Vs. cash sales. 

Chilli Pepper and Celery Crop Study Results are out for SXX (Sirius Minerals). With a triple edged sword coming through for SXX, I'm beginning to think the market is backwards. Price (very competitive), crop improvements and surety of supply, why is SXX listed still? Perhaps those savvy UAE folks in the UK at the moment will take some wise advice and buy the thing before the value becomes categorical. Unlikely but one can hope...

Its been a busy week, flat out (scuse the pun) dealing with Estate Agents (they aren't all bad) and Auction Houses for flat purchases. Thanks to poor marketing its enabled a very savvy purchase of a 3 bed flat in Nottingham at 40% of the one next door! Albeit there's a buyers fee of 750 (a joke of a charge). 

This morning I thought a certain R was bragging about his nights conquests till I reread it and realised that the Victoria Oil & Gas (VOG) have  laid the pipes across the Wouri River to Bonaberi. Normally there would be a cheer, but a sense its more a sigh of relief that its finally complete. VOG are nearly at a point where there should be a significant rerating, this will be hard with the current management and issues with their partner, but all the same its cheap allowing for geopolitical and management risks, the benefits include their gas supply price compared to the wider market. Perhaps their broker knows more than I about share consolidations, with the current management and history it would have been wise to wait awhile longer. Then again....if they have buyers in the wings, who knows...

We should welcome Tybourne Capital Management to ASOS (ASC), it could be an interesting ride...buying 83,425,440 shares; I'm not sure ASC will be as welcoming. I am led to believe Tybourne is a long short fund, with Eashwar Krishnan being a shrewd investor it has led me to at least revisit ASOS for more opportunities. 

Atb Fraser

Morning Mumble: Churchill Mining (potential conflict)

Morning, thankfully Ian's been a useful tool today and phoned people in Jakarta to establish what the 'craic' is re: Mr. Rachmat Gobel becoming a minister. New ministers Susi, Rachmat to resign from companies. This does bode well for Churchill Mining showing his views indirectly via his holding in CHL however it creates a massive conflict. Shall be interesting to follow...(hold etc...). 

Brilliant weekend, so limited items of a pressing nature only! Wider on the market gold gained more strength shame about the pricing! Bowleven allowed for a good stuffing home of some stale positions early on...killing any momentum. 

Atb Fraser

Morning Mumble: Horse Hill antics...& the leak. + Slow news Friday...

It was denied there was a leak at the Horse Hill drill, I'd actually put it as a flood not leak, proven by the various twitter comments, amazingly the estimates were well off the pace. Ironic that some parties that expel the virtues of rules and regs were so noisy yesterday. Expect some significant disappointment on the news...most punters don't understand it (myself is one and the reason I sold muppets my capital holding for zero risk). I am sure parties will be able to read the 5 RNS's in 4M locations so I won't repeat the trend. 

Back to the realities of the market, with Gold coming off as risk is on again and losing its shine a little (I know). For some reason the market needs more noise to sustain a correction than its given credit for. Those in denial will be 'bargain' basement shopping rather than positioning themselves with a more realistic cash holding. 

It was interesting yesterday discussing the Chinese real estate situation and the alleged over-subscription of Country Garden, with the Rights Issue (the press need to look at whom subscribed and supported the subscription as it does not suggest what the noise does). They have the first mover advantages and I suspect the next few will struggle to get full coverage. Promises of monies and over subscription are not always a good measure of the viability of a company. After all it takes many sheep to create a bull/bear market rather than a valued market. 

The next set of retail property will be very interesting for China, the revenues we know are significantly down in terms of taxation. Commercial property is saturated currently, so don't expect too much improvement there. Save for the Saviour Our Lord Mr Stimulus coming to their rescue with development funding...yes something that is something the newspapers should also look in to in terms of development loans. Solar was a prime example...

It was surprising to see Vale come in well-ahead of consensus yesterday, I've not had time to go through all the facts, but it doesn't bode well for the Iron Ore pricing. There's limited costs expanded on in Vale's Q3 which leaves parties guessing on the savings. 3Q14 Production Report (pdf). 

Yesterday, I was trying to think through the situations for supermarkets and my gut is saying that Sainsbury's and Morrison's have no choice re: Rights Issues now. Will this happen? I suspect so, but it will be a case of whom pulls the gun first! For the former, SBRY will no doubt have to wait until yet another plane has landed from Hamad Airport. We'll leave the lease issues that came up on Tesco for another day...

Little time today due to commitments and packing. I'm off to West Sussex for debauchery and alcohol, long those spirit stocks folks! My detox has yielded a weight loss of 2.5stone so it's time for a little let up before going again till Christmas! Hoping to make FTML but pending whether I have done my chores, for the first time in a long time I am doing the packing! 

Atb Fraser

Morning Mumble: (Delayed due to trading) Tesco (TSCO) & Foxton's (FOXT), certainly foxed those in denial.

Good morning, today is a jolly of sorts I'm being shuttled off to Paris for the day to expel my knowledge to a savvy trader. I have to say that as a) he reads and b) he's paying yours truly. So whilst I await a flight, here goes...

Too many are quick to pooh-pooh the negatives of stocks, Foxtons was an overpriced IPO (My view) thus short. Likewise the London bubble as discussed here with Berkeley Property Group et al is "normalising." No surprises that at Foxtons' IMS today things are not as bull'ish as before with settling of markets and not so robust projections. The IMS today really shows the need for a reappraisal of the market, all the news in Foxton's was known, Mortgage applications down, market sales down, softening in the market you can call it. 

If you were holding long on Foxton's, you might need to share today's mirror to have a chat with yourself. JP, as noted in emails was very humbling in his "OK you like the simple style and it appears to have worked with Foxtons.' JP a good sport, knows I know he means he was wrong and its an apology and case of red wine to me! Perhaps I shall just redeliver to Leggie, as I have yet to post the one in the box for my Morrisons *(MRW) bet. 

Earnings will drop based on demand slowing/dropping (significant potential of stagnation at lower levels), property taxation, political issues for certain price bands, Russian/Chinese lending issues and that excludes the more realistic mortgage lending that should have been in place years ago. Expect rentals to come under pressure in due course as demand slows, supply increases and landlords desire a haircut on the rental commissions.

Tesco's, at least the investigation continues and the new man has kitchen sinked a significant part of the issues. Expect further to come and pricing models to adapt according to location rather than national pricing model (significant challenge there). The every day low price (EDLP) is likely to be more significant for Tesco's than other competitors with greater market share. 

Roger's views are validated in so much as previous years have not been impacted by the goings on and as such the market can breathe a sigh of relief to that. Do not expect too much positive coverage until post Christmas. As known shopping is going to be very competitive this year, how NEXT fairs is anyones guess. Premium brands I need to re-evaluate after the Apple figures which surpassed my expectations, these changes and dynamics I need to better grasp the market for...(read as under review). Once I've obtained Roger's permission to share, I'll post his thoughts on Tesco this morning. 

The savvy (me) closed my position on Premier Foods (PFD) as the market was pricing in better news than I thought, with today's Interim Management Statement the numbers will certainly do the talking again. (Time for a picture)...

Its not rocket science to consider why the SP has declined so significantly. Sales across the board down, more concerning are the non-branded items down double digits. Positively PFD is working with its suppliers/customers albeit with the structural changes in shopping, this will not stop the disappointment. 

The retail/grocery sector will improve post Christmas as Consumers get into routines again. The confusion as Morrisons correctly eluded to does not stay for long as buyers start to understand / have confidence in their choice. These will generally stay for significant periods of time. The last trends were 15 years, it takes awhile for the herd to adjust! Specifically for PFD's the relaunches were required some time ago, food on the go, and healthy 'sweet' options will be key. Isn't that a contradiction? Perhaps some leverage of associated products to do with Great British Bake-Off etc...would assist them. Pre-mixed items labelled with Mr Kiplings? Who knows, just some thoughts. Post the reorganisation and clarity on market PFD make have some sex appeal, until them leave it in the cupboard. 

No time for AAL (Anglo American) but nothing that would make anyone change there opinion. CAML (Central Asia Metals) Director Options & Share Sale really needs to be raised at an AGM or vote in respect of the non-alignment of interests. Especially in light of Robert Cathery (& Family)'s sale earlier in the month.

Sadly Ian is no doubt running around the wilds of Indonesia now and won't answer his phone for some ideas on Tullow's (TLW) announcement today. I read it as positive, but I'm not an oiler! Why Rio are not sticking to the plan of change I don't quite know....Rio Tinto extends the tenure of senior executive team. No time also for the Magnolia Petroleum Plc(`Magnolia' or `the Company') Excellent Initial Production at Six Devon Energy Operated Wells in Oklahoma (having promise). 

Now my question of the week as tomorrow I depart for a weekend at a stud for debauchery and drink (my first in near 12 weeks) is, when will Victoria Oil & Gas learn stock market values and rules? Would you be consolidating now? VOG share consolidation and  final results out today, the latter, nothing special bar the jam. I'm holding in VOG (again) on the basis of the asset performance, not management. I was tempted to inform the management why they should not consolidate yet, but then ...the management clearly haven't done the best for the SP over the years, so what's another issue?

Oil has held well strategically and the denial and ignorance have set in, long my  but ignore (edited 23/10/14) the production increase and the price, we'll just ignore the demand element. Not one party has noticed that the Chinese "national" (read as strategic purchases) are already declining already. Then again why mention the obvious, with the unwinding of a significant position in the red, it'll save them near 84$M. Keep going boys, that's near $4B lost of your nations monies on some dire trading. That's just what I'm aware of...because they'll just refuse to pay up, surely that's never happened!!!!!!

Today's a big day for Dave, he's moving house, only up the road but the saga has finally come to a head with the removals all being done as I type! Best of luck with it Dave and takeaway and beer tonight will assist plus a yellow room for the daughter! Finally, today is a shocker, my technical trading chap has got engaged, the sly dog after near 3 years of "nothing serious" popped the question last night in the company of Ian and Mrs Frenchie whom both of them have been on and off more than my boiler! Ian makes people do strange things but that's near the top of it! All the very best to both of them & Dave + family on the move. May Sarah cope with Hugo making his living in the company of Myself and Ian! Poor you!

Atb Fraser

Morning Mumble: Iron Ore (BLT) and ignorance is bliss....+Gold (see what I did there)

Good morning, I had a trip to the smoke yesterday and was wined and dined...they even paid god help them! I suspect it was because they realised I was still on the detox and hope the rematch would be at my expense! 

BLT (BHP Billiton)'s results actually surpassed my expectations overnight. The Operational Review Qtr End (30 Sep 14) has some negatives in it, which are worth considering. A US$361 million increase in the budget of Escondida (Organic Growth Project) to US$4.2 billion was approved during the period. The project remains on schedule for completion in the first half of the 2015 calendar year. I'm perplex by the definition of organic growth but one will avoid being too picky this morning. 

The production allegedly fell with anticipated grades being on track and that essential ingredient "power!" Perhaps Rurelec can get in there quick and sort something out with a security of supply deal? With Energy Coal on the decline due to droughts and "dust" restrictions, may aid the market with South Africa going on strike as well (see Glencore Thermal Coal Strikes). Expect some collateral damage in manganese production as well, it won't be long before the Aluminium sector in South Africa gets the 10% pay rise bug as well...can't be left out of the recent, yet damaging, pay deals in the PGM sector! Its considerate of the strikers to assist the market, perhaps they can have rotational strikes to keep the sport prices up!

Metallurgical coal had a stonking increase up near 25%, with an additional 4% gain guided for the year, one expects all operations (subject to weather and strikes) to be operating at capacity. These sort of results look good for any divestment along the way...(in the short-term)

The summary will save a lot of time...quite why the market ran away with itself and pushed iron ore stocks higher in Asia/ASX is beyond me, it merely means the big guy just got stronger. However, with the flood / glut of Iron Ore on the opposite side of the world in Atlas Ore (AGO) might just be a goner. It simply cannot compete and finally analysts have realised the error of their ways and recommended sell.

Its not rocket science why Atlas was a short, and after the downgrades (read as get out whilst you can), one would be very rude not to get in there and give it a kicking short. Even UBS might just have called it well on Atlas (for them), not that I'm one to criticise having a neutral rating on a stock whilst the obvious was happening! Iron ore flood leaves little wriggle room for minnow Atlas, it appears that Atlas are already on the bank, they just need putting out of their misery. (Caveat subject to no Indian Buyer). 

Irrespective of the casualty, it would appear BLT's scale up approach is working, I would take the operational savings as a positive in sustaining returns you'd be wise not to wager too much on the basis of increasing returns. It’s apparent between Rio and BLT there's going to be a tough few years (3-5 years), one would be wise to avoid such logos or business plans that state "iron ore + $50 all in costs.

Little time to cover Petropavlovsk Plc Q3 Production Report and IMS but a quick glance suggests they're well set for the appreciating gold price; they need 1300$ just to pay down $50m of debt a year. Leveraged plays have seen their true value (now), so don't get too carried away thinking £10+ again...It looks as though POG have benefited from FX gains against the Rouble in costs terms with costs of sub $900 (circa) compared to the guidance of $900-$950. With a paltry debt reduction its not going to be an easy tax but the management (contrary to my thoughts) have been able (or at least appear to) keep treading water until a recovery in the gold price. At the current price of gold and excluding the hedging programme it looks like break-even would have just occurred with zero debt repayments. 

With a swallow flying across Iron Ore and Oil again, expect some nervous advancement in their respective stocks...Gold spiked over $1255/oz. for a brief period overnight and with silver quickly following. The irony being silver seems to be looking for a twin, is it PGM or Gold? The market cannot decide, but Hochschild (HOC) need something and soon! Expect some news on a capital reduction/cash cost initiative over and above the current plans. With limited silver sellers (limited supply) silver looks about to jump on to a gold bandwagon of 60:1 ratio, currently circa 70:1.

Atb Fraser

Morning Mumble: My exclusive (with common-sense) BSkyB (BSY) but is partnership the best model.

BSkyB may make move into mobile phones (The Times). Its interesting that BSY is belatedly going into Mobile comms, what is not surprising is the discussions taking place albeit why is BSY having discussions with EE and O2; the surprise will be if it's not Vodafone. Lets exclude the other two on the basis on EE not having a partnership agreement with EE, O2's partnership with BT.A.

Vodafone already supplying Sky Go (or on the go) over their network and a logical marriage would benefit both parties. Quite why it's only a JV is beyond me, Vodafone and Sky would benefit massively with synergies that would enhance both companies and funding/leverage  that would steer the direction of both companies right into the homes jointly improving margins. Alas, this is common-sense talking the JV is likely to add little value above maintaining market share within the quad-play environment. Both companies need this but do they realise it yet? Can one company's (BSY) management give up some control? 

Both companies can certainly avoid a marriage, but whether shareholders wish to ignore the massive potential is another thing. 

Atb Fraser

Morning Mumble: Oil, the global stimuli the Arab wealth funds are hedged....are you?

It was an interesting day yesterday whilst viewing a house to buy, it got me thinking. The vendor was an oil worker and had not had his contract renewed (yet) by the company. He works in the North Sea and is looking to move to America where he's been offered a contract (his hedge I assume). Anyway, despite wishing him the best for his future, one has to wonder with the current oil swell in supply whether a hedge is essential. 

Oil to Saudi Arabia et al, is iron ore to Rio and BLT (BHP Billiton). I'll explain my belief very quickly...Saudi need the market share, they have financial commitments and leverage in the global play of economics if they maintain this. As such, with shale gas/oil at all time highs, Saudi like Rio/BLT are betting the higher cost producers will go out of business, suspend production at those prices. 

The best estimates are around $63pb all in costs for Shale O&G, Ian's savvy on this so lets give him some credit. Unlike Rio & BLT, Saudi's bet is unlikely to pay off, more so assisting the sanctions against Russia and forcing them to raise taxes and stall their economy. So we'll assume Ian's estimates of a decline in shale of around 2Mbopd is needed to support anything above $100pb. It doesn't bode well for the leveraged producers at all whose finance costs are eating into margins never mind the oil performance (or lack of). 

When considering the above, the largest importers are likely to benefit, China and India. One would be wise to consider some sort of exposure to Indian and Indonesian Oil refiners. Their markets are tightly controlled (exc. fraud haha), so with prices down there are likely to be limited/reduced under-recoveries and as such greater potential for profit. One would be wise to look at the longer-term average on oil, when this price drops below $90 expect a bounce, as the result will be the leverage producer has two options increase production (often not that easy) or scale back (easier). So with the longer term average of oil below $90 there should be more stability, as the short-term price will be sub $80. So plenty of trading opportunities! 

With global oil and gas prices being absolutely irrelevant to Victoria Oil & Gas (VOG) due to their supply prices, its positive that they are nearing an end with their RSM Settlement Update. With the decision being absolutely final, what tactics can certain parties use now. VOG has great potential, its a shame the management history shows a lack of understanding and "learning" at the expense of the shareholders. Having recently trading VOG, one is looking for another entry point. 

There's so much oil news I don't have time to cover here today, with Egdon Resources (EDR) Europa Oil & Gas (EOG) and Union Jack Oil plc UKOG coming up post their September announcement with further positives at Wressle. SLE  (San Leone) & Serica Energy (SQZ) may finally have some support with the SM-1 well in the Sidi Moussa coming in positively but the wisdom of Genel's RNS urges a little more caution. 

President Energy (PPC) having a very good oil discovery in Paraguayan Chaco. Expect great noise about the this...and no doubt some pushing on PPC. There's a significant number of shareholders underwater sub 32 pence (last placing in February). Could there be another? PPC is undervalued, and if it was not for certain management would out perform significantly, as such only higher risks monies are given exposure to this stock. For myself anything +30 pence will demand the capital is removed with the profit left to run. 

No time either for the impact on Wolf Minerals (WLFE) Tungsten prices uncertainty and slowing of demand...this stock is not to be confused with Woulfe Mining that was/is listed on the Chittagong Stock Exchange which has caused significant frustration for one company attempting to buy the stock. Perhaps utilising an EPIC & Name policy will save 5 months of anguish for a certain red faced trader last week! It beggars belief that it takes yours truly to point out the obvious issues, never mind why a certain individual is allowed to tie his own shoelaces! 

Closing positions on Premier Foods (PFD) today, as the market appears to know more than I...currently.

Atb Fraser

Numerous Questions: QPP (Get a life)

For clarity and to save people posting perpetually, this page will never be covering QPP on a separate note. For clarity, I am an investor, I'm not a gambler per se. With that in mind if someone can make sense of the mind field (excuse the pun) of contradictions and information that is out there, please do not educate me on it but give yourself a medal. 

Other than that, stop trying to spam the comments section with crap about the bottom, the best time to short and the like. If you feel the need to focus on one stock, give yourself the lesson I had a few years ago! Get out, learn your strengths and play off them. So for those thinking this site is schadenfreude for long only investors, get a life and do not read it either. 

Have a good weekend!

Atb Fraser (Via email from my phone!)

Morning Mumble: Kenmare (KMR) no surprises there...re: share offer. The man from the Pru will be pleased. No surprises with gold but base metals!?!?

Well what a surprise, Iluka Resources confirm a share based proposal. KMR are less specific about and refer to the matter as "on-going discussions." Following on from yesterday, its nice to have a high risk return almost "instantly" in market terms from yesterday's Morning Mumble: if one was knife catching KMR might just be worth a couple of extra pence, what say you at 17p. Speculative/High Risk punters need only apply. Don't get too excited with KMR, one would be wise to consider KMR's cash generation...this will clearly impact on any offer. If its too high, Iluka will be a nice short!

We'll leave it to a statement from Michael Carvill, Managing Director [to summarise]: 

"During the quarter we have continued to focus on previously stated plans of conserving cash and controlling costs against a background of market conditions that have adversely impacted cash generation. The upgrade of the non-magnetic circuits in Q2 2014 helped contribute in Q3 2014 to a substantial increase in primary zircon, a significant part of our revenues."

Leni Oil & Gas (LGO) has become a true traders fiddler, all the way down and all the way back up...a pleasure really. Many thanks muppets, you're too predictable...

Quickly, the story of the day should be the recovery in base metals. Significant support in late trading and over in to Asia. One could read this two ways as knife catchers or people exiting shorts for short-term gains. I suspect a mix, but with the supply and current prices, there's more volatility to come. Gold was doing as it should!

Rolls Royce (RR.) on the tank, with their guidance and medium-term outlook looking more like a thunder storm. Expect some recovery when the pen pushers can jump on a fence to infer everything isn't as bad as the market suggests with "buying opportunities" blah blah...

Very busy this morning, but the bounce, post DJI opening came with little surprise yesterday, denial and resilience will be the measure of the day. 

Atb Fraser

Morning Mumble: New Loans (yeah right)..Sky's the limit (boom boom) & the swallow cleared off!

New Loans, the Chinese announced that Sept new bank loans 857.2 bln yuan, beats forecast was something to celebrate. Despite these figures contradicting those that work in banks, its mystifying what is a new loan. China define new yuan loans as a measure of new lending minus loans repaid. Its still refinancing but the Chinese do not want us to acknowledge this nor the rolling up of debt. The banks, the direct measure I prefer, especially as Li has good contacts in China, suggests this new lending is the slowdown in new loans being process from previous months. Post PBC (People's Bank of China) ordering applications to be processed quicker etc...

China has significant growth and opportunity potential on the basis of sensible forecasts of growth expectations/actions. China Credit Growth Climbs as Targeted Easing Kicks In: Economy from Reuters shows the decline in growth on an assumed basis. When considering the "new loans" one would be wise to question why the PBC is tinkering with the property financing for "first homes." This was historically saved for those buying a first home for their family, however things have changed, even in the Chinese subsidised Housing schemes supporting a lot of the construction industry. One would be wise to read it, it's plain speaking but rather smacks of a little common-sense and please note PBC and CBRC on Further Improving Financial Services for Real Estate Sector

Its by far doom and gloom, on the flip side there's liquidity and the money markets are flowing in China. This will support growth and the sectors with significant cashflow issues (read as: Steel, Commodities, Housing and Manufacturing where wastage is included). 

This morning does not have the luxury of being able to assess Sky's 1st Quarter fully, with improvements across the board in customers and ARPU (Actual Revenue per Use) which historically Q1 is the lowest of the ARPU measures it bodes well for the full year. Without checking how the sale of a significant chunk of ITV impacted on the profit, they still look positive. You will note they're lacking in terms of quad-play, something BT are likely to start advertising. With price rises flowing through it questions whom is not being astute with their billing...the retentions department is well motivated to keep customers. For those not haggling for basic services you should be ashamed if you are not. Phone up, explain the costs are simply high and sort it out, even works with the FT:-). Quite why some "valued" people have to pay is beyond me! One might just be turning positive on BSY post any contagion and sell off!

Yet again South Atlantic Petroleum (SAPETRO) increase their holding in Afren (AFR) by another 15M shares. Their motivations are unknown currently but one suspect there will be a few board suggested appointments in due course. 

Base metals,+ Gold and Silver appreciating predictably, at the moment with moderate but not unwelcome increases to 1,238.57$/Oz & 17.42$/oz. BLT (BHP Billiton) progressing faster than I thought with standard listing being used to appease some FTSE/UK only investors. Quite why this was not thought of straight away is disappointing. With various analogies to the name, suggestions and commentary include RubbishCo, CrapCo and WasteYaFinMoneyCo, take your pick, it'll no doubt fly as it'll be priced to make people feel a little better!

For those following my "A Swallow of a Summer for Iron Ore" you'll note we're now back in Autumn approaching winter fast! See ASX: Price movements to clarify the sentiment. FMG (Fortescue Metals Group) gaining some common-sense (down) about any takeover (or lack of), Atlas Iron (AGO) left me closing my short on the company, aided in part by FMG's short. The Super Major's Rio and BLT suffering as well but to a smaller degree. Expect some bounce in rio/BLT on prices for today in the market. The Chinese borrowing / new yuan loans did nothing whatsoever to support the commodities prices in Asia/Australia, save for precious metals excluding the unloved and oversupplied PGM's. 

As promised from earlier in the week, Duncan's views on Tesco:

Tesco: Buy

Another day, more Directors asked to 'stand aside'. We can read this two ways, either Tesco has really been doing some very aggressive accounting for many years which will shock the market, or the new management wants to change the culture of how the business will be run and anyone that doesn't agree with that is being side-lined. We would be surprised if the Auditors would have signed off on the Accounts for so many years without mentioning the current accounting issue until the last accounts. Undoubtedly Tesco has been using the rules to there absolute maximum, but we doubt they have been fraudulent. So we assume that there is a bit of both in what is going on here, Dave Lewis will want a new culture at Tesco so he will want his team in place and can use the investigation as an excuse to exclude personnel that aren't signed up to the new culture. Thankfully we only have 6 more days of speculation before we get the Interim results, it will not be pretty, but we should start to get some answer to whether they need a rights issue, what level of discounting will happen for Christmas, and when/what the new strategy will be.

Bold is mine, its now only five days!

Sadly no time to cover Evraz , but for those with positions in Iluka Resources, Kenmare and APF (They own the Largo Resources 2% net smelter royalty) you would be wise to read them and strip out Pig Iron, Vanadium and consider the impact on steel! If you're still holding Ironveld, there might just be rumours of a saving grace but don't get too excited it's not a great uplift! More to the point, in Iluka's quarterly report KMR might just have some upside as.; expect some advancement today There appears to be some improvements in the market as Roger Bade noted, but more importantly, if one was knife catching KMR might just be worth a couple of extra pence, what say you at 17p. Speculative/High Risk punters need only apply!

For those following my BP. Short, I'm now no longer short, I've surprisingly hit my target price I thought was a little excessive. I'll sit on the sidelines for now and awaiting some news for Saudi/OPEC and the like which should support supply/prices. Contrary to what one mug put it OPEC/Saudi want it at $120 by Christmas, why he's employed raises significant questions. Yes there's a chance of anything, but really save for war and supply issues can you really see it with a massive swell in supply. 

Atb Fraser

Morning Mumble: Oil, woah, reality biting...South African ineptitude costing Aquarius Platinum (AQP)

Morning, its a strange day as over supply of yet another commodity causes a significant tank in the price (scuse the pun). This morning was an opportunity to remove any longer-term oil bets I had going but leave the equity and a significant level of shorts across the sector. Its a long time ago I was this high in cash even with shorts open across most of the oilers. The weight and lack of support in oil is important, as a trader I am short because I simply cannot call a bottom at the moment, the wiser traders will also consider the impact. Without a doubt, if there was any cheapness in the market for M&A it would be no on the basis of fear and fear alone. Expect some more movement for the leverage players in the market. 

CSR 900 pence by QualComm., well what can be said for the significant change. Whilst in dialogue with Roddy he pointed out that there would be a number of other suitors for the company if a bid/offer was withdrawn. Strategically that makes for a long...I certainly owe the chap some blue nun/black tower. 

AQP termination of sale with China National Arts & Crafts (Group) Corporation ("Consortium"). This rather sums up the situation in South Africa and for AQP, regrettably its at the cost of AQP shareholders. I've not like the company or costs for a long-time. Amazingly a low cost producer (Sylvania Platinum) decided to employ someone from AQP for which is questionable for saying how the both SP's have performed. In essence, AQP's lower cost $27 million (before tax) capital raising is scuppered and  is now a lost opportunity. With cash in the bank it's not the end for AQP, but its not looking great either with the price of PGM's and costs on the up. if they adopted a rand reporting style the FX issues would be removed. AQP should be able to make money...but not much for a shareholder!

Limited time today as on the hoof! Shire torching many an arb + longs, I have to question the sanity in anyone being long on Shire for what potential gain? Its categorical that the upside was so limited there was either no downside or massive, which fence would you have been on? I'll copy and paste Dan's email when I have permission/time allows whom followed some of my advice. Finally, the shorts smell the risk with BG. (BG Group) despite the markets globally...

Atb Fraser

Morning Mumble: Any Old Iron Ore - Has a bottom been found or have the Chinese stopped reselling back to market, merely a lack of supply for November?

It was interesting we had a swallow fly across the iron ore markets in Asia and Australia overnight calling the bottom to the Iron Ore prices. Marubeni expects iron ore prices to climb in 2015. Now it's agreed depending on your view of 2015 is that January or December. Perhaps this is being picky in terms of putting pricing expectations into play? 

What is absolute is at the current prices the surplus and discount producers are under significant strain, LOND (London Mining) and African Minerals (AMI) are prime examples. There's more hope for AMI, but all the same in the same corner as LOND.

Overnight we had a supply bottleneck which caused Iron Ore to appreciate, followed shortly after by most ASX listed producers. $83/t a is a cheer to be had, but remember there are not large Asian sellers in the market de-leveraging their balance sheets due to cashflow problems. The trend certainly does look to continue, save for greater supply coming to the market again, a bounce to $87 is possible, but one would be throwing darts in the dark currently. 

Investor confidence is contradicting the construction industry's supply and demand issues in China; more concerning is there's been little improvement despite liquidity coming to the market. It would be wise to monitor.

Atb Fraser

Morning Mumble: Afren (AFR) & Hargreaves Lansdown (HL.) & Tesco's to name but a few...

South Atlantic Petroleum (SAPETRO) Notifications of Major Interests in Shares in Afren comes with little surprise and enabled some significant trading on Afren. So thanks to the scaremongers that clearly were not reading the statements that were made by the company and ignoring the large buyer (SAPETRO)

There are some lessons here for traders and long-term investors with Afren. This should, without a doubt, be considered a warning in terms of news announcements but also when the company has been very specific in their wording that warning should be embraced (buying opportunities), mid-term in respect of longer term capital and long-term in whom replaces the now departed. Also acknowledge the risks in respect of how this occurred over so long including the geo-bribery issues that is the perception of operating in Nigeria (and Africa per se).

The investigation is very precise in its terminology and is a broadside against what is rumoured/alleged to be certain lawyer conflicts going on in the background. One would be wise not to price in too much of a recovery in any monies. We'll leave it for Afren to summarise the results of independent review and the dismissal of CEO, COO and Associate Directors

Ironically, on the flip side, parties will know I'm short on Hargreaves Lansdown (HL.) for obvious reasons, increased competition, lower margins and the general pension outlook. Never-mind that most SIPP investors reduce their pensions via poor investing (read as declining returns and charges...) People would be wise to get hold of Sanford Bernstein's assessment of HL. They have a target price of around 745 pence which could be argued as the top end of target prices. For those not in the know Sanford Bernstein are sell side and have had some very decent calls!

It would be wise to look at the costings (marketing & enticements) for these new customers in all companies in this sector. With share trading competition hotting up expect some M&A in this sector very soon. HL. is too big in my view to be acquired, but should/needs to acquire to reduce costs. You should be forgiven to think that the results are good, but they certainly do not justify (save for any change in trading) any market capitalisation above £3.5 billion (circa 740p a share). One the trading side, with 8 days until PLUS500 update on Q3 Trading active customers might not be the best measure of success!

Some hooray for Anglo Pacific (APF), with a Kestrel Royalty License Update which shows a more hope for the company. APF has not got the best spread of investments and the assertions of a big deal are slowly being put down to myth and legend. Their current asset base in a perfect world would encourage a sensible person to invest, but alas that's not happening any time soon unless one starts drinking in the mornings! The news is positive but it does not change the outlook for the company unless costs are reduced and returns are improved. With my view compared to the wider market expect some advancement in the stock (read as opportunity to get out/short-term trading).

Caledonia Mining (CMCL) have updated with more revisions, as such the company has not met this target either that they had the opportunity to set on the 15th July, which was heady anyway. My best estimate was around 43k/oz. this year now it's been guiding to 40K/oz. with lower grades. The valuation does not justify the risk now so today was the last position to go. Such high hopes, but with risks of looking more like a serial disappointer. 

With Tesco (TSCO) a few days away from their update expect some uncertainty and volatility in the SP. What is expected if a revision of guidance, some clarity on strategy and how TSCO will leverage off their market share to improve the situation/rewards. TSCO, with the monopoly on supermarkets/sector, have some leverage and position that has not been utilised fully yet. Expect a significant shot across the bow of the others in terms of price war, pricing and pricing perception. The key is the latter. 

Research is already suggesting the shopper is travelling less to buy their shop, with TSCO 's 25-28% (pending how you read it) market share, you should see some improvement. Less travel means the shopper will go to their nearest supermarket with 1:4(1:4.3) being a TSCO, it could certainly be one to now start buying; LIDL & ALDI's growth is likely to be weighted to the high end of new stores rather than acquiring customers because of price.

With recent IT and Phone issues, I'll gain Roger's view in due course if he hasn't already emailed, it is a shame parties send me reports/views/analysis without permissions to share. Its like having a chocolate fire-guard! 

With the shorts closing on Premier Food (PFD) ahead of their update, how bad will the news be? AO World finally finding some support in its share price...if you're a long holder from the highs, I have spare mirror for you to have a long hard look at yourself.

The final thought goes to Orogen Gold PLC Further drilling confirms continuity of gold zone, quite why anyone would hold this stock is beyond me...& congratulate yourself if you don't own Anglesey Mining (AYM).

It was a pleasure to be nearly having a mobile phone again, albeit EE for some strange reason sent 6 phones yesterday. This saga has gone on too long, no wonder Vodafone is performing how it is with their service at the dire end of the market. The CEO apparently does not have time to respond to "customer woes."...Porting allegedly takes place at 2pm today, so if I've not replied don't be too offended!

Atb Fraser

Morning Mumble: Chinese Property with wider implications (all of it was known but some things are missing).

Buy one, get free chickens – Chinese developers resort to gimmicks By Jamil Anderlini in Beijing

Showing the stress in the market; the figures were known, some of the news was recycled from previous months, but more importantly, there's discounts via Alibaba’s Taobao and associated sites including matching what you've spent over a certain period. Ignore the headline $325K potential as its unlikely 99% of the country will have spent anywhere near that on Baba. Albeit some savvy folk are advertising to process purchases for buyers to qualify for the maximum discount.

What the article misses is that banks are noticing a continued downturn in mortgage applications. Are the buyers not being motivated by the current prices? (Read as more discounts to come). Beijing has shown an increase in applications with a reduction in equity up front. Thanks to Li for contacting quite a few people in the banking sector to gain their views on the market. The liquidity may be available, but it looks like most are recycling more expensive loans for cheaper products (common-sense). 

Rental yields in 53 towns are under significant pressure (over supply) dropping to 3-4% which doesn't bode well for motivating the property investors. Li & friends have noticed that properties are dropping to around 3-4% yield. Property prices have to come down significantly to increase the potential yield to anything via. There's a $1m houses in Beijing for rent around $30K and they're far from rare...

A lovely cheery note for a Sunday, so with the dire impact and reduction in Sales, the belief China will have to create an overseas investment story (read as focus) to entice investors is becoming more likely. Go China Bulls!

When considering the impact on commodities if the Chinese construction industry is going to have to be excessively cost conscious all prices are going to come under pressure and mirror Iron Ore, Steel and Coking Coal and Oil, up next? Copper? Food ingredients including Palm Oil etc...?  Although Palm oil is under considerable pressure already but showing more value than the likes of sugar (sell).

Atb Fraser

Morning Mumble: Carnage & all is well in China no need for Stimulus & Tesco's Kitchen Sink.

Good Morning, the Peanut Butter Ninja Warrior has subdued to a cold, so yours truly has been up watching Peppa Pig (parties would be wise to read about Entertainment One (ETO) and feeding her warm milk on demand since 4am. She's now back to bed but my brain is active...

China sees no need for big stimulus for property, economy (Reuters)...I'm inclined to agree that China should consolidate their economy. China is slowly allowing the risks of their economy to be shown with defaults and some natural trends to appear. What China isn't doing is sitting on the sidelines and doing nothing! Its already evidenced they've pumped liquidity in, its evidenced they've increased their social housing agenda and brought forward stimuli planned for 2015/16 in terms of CAPEX and developmental loans. 

They are assisting the banks supporting the Chinese Steel mills. SinoSteel (one could be excused for swapping an e for an a) have yet to rectify its loans issue. The cashflow, despite the support of specific orders going to certain customers of SinoSteel whom are the most distressed, is poor to say the least. This came in from Li awhile back, which he kindly sent to me again as it appears I did not acknowledge the severity; Steel Group (not related to Liu the authot). What people will note is the iron ore liquidation, ironically the mills in China have caused their own problems selling on ore/positions to reduce the balance sheet leverage (or attempting to at least). Ironic the Chinese mills with the assistance of their suppliers have shorted the entire market...who'd have thought it!?!?!?!? Does it remind people of Solar? or piping? Steel? Oops its still happening!

China is willing to wait publicly, whilst meddling / stimulating on a local more discreet level, a complete contradiction to the overall state of the economy. When reading and viewing the Chinese economy, its far from lost and the end of the Chinese economy is far from nigh. What is important is reading that in comparison to the bulls of China in the perspective of a consolidation and slower country growth would be wise. (Mentioned many times here.) Ironically when looking at China without rose tinted glasses it is a stronger buy. China's build and sell model has significant risk, UK developers have begun to expand into more diversified models, in boom eras the returns are very good, but with prices under pressure and the mortgage approvals (+speed) allegedly on the increase, the demand clearly isn't there with prices under pressure. Expect the Chinese to make key deals abroad to hedge their exposure to a down-turning Chinese market. 

Long Only (LO) is riskier than people perceive...take for example Afren, there's potential but not without risks but there's little point sitting there and watching profit eroded without hedging the position. AFR (AFREN) has been a predictable trade, with profits banked as well as equity still held albeit 10% less in value since yesterday. 

When trends change, at what point does one sell? Do you have to sell? Not at all but you can hedge going short on stocks you have equity in. For example, Wolf Minerals (WLFE) despite buying on lower prices, there were 4 positions short, 3 of which have been banked (more than the equity holding). There's risks to every portfolio but with the availability of hedging for the average man, why not hedge in dire markets? Assuming ones' mindset leans that way, its having your cake and eating it.

Had darts been thrown at stocks this week and taken short positions with little knowledge you'd have no doubt made. Sentiment betting/spread betting is money for old rope. Gold was the surprise of the day with little volatility, one could read into it that investors do not perceive the risks as so significant to run to its safety, or are already exposed there...the latter is more than likely. 

We'll leave the rumours on GKP (Gulf Keystone) on the periphery now, risks to both short and long positions based on the gossip. 

The final thought goes to the post regarding Tesco's kitchen sink,Tesco’s new chief has a short shelf-life to find answers. Thinking back its clear Dave Lewis's best plan is to kitchen sink all the dirt, rebalancing expectations and getting it in whilst the news is dire. Transparency and forecasting is key to the survival of Tesco as a goliath stock for funds. Expect some dire news from Tesco (assuming there is any)...post any investigation and the next trading update, Tesco's woes will hopefully be known. 

Have a good weekend, Atb Fraser

Morning Mumble: Finsbury Food *(Duncan's view)

Finsbury Foods: NC

Today the Company has acquired the Fletchers Group for approximately £56m. Given that this deal is larger than the current market capitalisation of Finsbury the deal will be structured as a reverse take-over, and the deal is being paid for by cash with Finsbury placing a shy 60m new shares at 59p. This placing looks to be over-subscribed, sensible given the strategic sense of the deal. Finsbury have spent much of the last few years investing behind their Cake business in the UK so that they now have excellent facilities that can service the Retail market, it looks as though Fletchers has been investing behind their business of morning goods and bread for the Food Service industry. Now the combined business should be able to harness the potential of selling complimentary products to their existing clients, consequently you should see the s=combined sales rise faster than they could have achieved if they had both stayed independent. It looks as though there is one other nice issue in the deal, Fletchers has some tax losses which will be useful too. As a category, the baking, bread and cake industry has been suffering from a lack of investment, it feels as though Finsbury has now merged the two companies that were addressing this. With sales likely to approach £300m, you should start to see other investors look at the business, especially as there are not many well invested smaller capitalised companies within this space.

(Bold is mine).

Cheers Roger, whom we hope does not go to the excessive of the British Bake Off!

Atb Fraser

Morning Mumble: Today breakfast will be eaten, and the sun shall rise (LGO), Kicking a dog whilst its down (Coal) & not much more! Vedanta...was it surprising? Get real...

Continuing with the title: LGO is pleased to announce that yesterday it made the first sale from the newly commissioned sales tank at the Goudron Field. A total of 1,886 barrels of crude oil were shipped from the new sales tank to the Pointe-a-Pierre refinery. LGO, if the management were to change fully I could be positive on this stock. With an RNS like today's has one wondering how much time is spent on these RNS's compared to more purposeful items such as running the company.

Mothercare Rights Issue, they've raised £95M net of expenses so what is the price doing above 150? Perhaps I'm deluded, deranged and needing to purchase some Gulf Keystonee shares. Ironically that is coming about by selling my short...

For the international arbitration players, Venezuela failed to provide fair compensation for assets: Exxon. Staying with this theme, its alleged there's news due regarding Oxus Plc (OXS), this comes with a caveat that the gossip comes from a visitor to Uzbekistan. Although people will be well aware of how many times this has been suggested over the past 10 months. Perhaps this means there's light at the end of the tunnel not a train this time!

One would be wise to read the following announcement whilst sat down, no coffee in hand nor any sharp object. Yes, continuing the theme of share options from yesterday, today's award for unjustifiable allocation goes to...Yes the holders have benefited, but really 3% of the company? Circa 1.2M GBP? Obviously the Directors could argue the price is significantly up etc...but? 4 September 2013 Share Options? One would be wise to factor this into any evaluation of the company. It would be ironic this stock now got shorted...obviously their rewards would be justified? 

Can the Chinese do anything worse than reduce demand for most commodities then impose a tax on it? China to impose coal import duties (FT), quite why this was not headline I'll never know. As most on the ball have noted, Rio (Rio Tinto), BLT (BHP Billition) and GLEN (Glencore) have and will have some kicking as a result. 

In the gold watch, that's slowly becoming an irregular measure of the state of global capitalism, with declines in markets and earnings (read as fears) coming through including cars sales, retail and the like. What more does a precious metal/hedge need? Intelligence...?

Some decent news for FIF (Finsbury Foods) today the acquisition of the Fletchers Group. Due to the trading range of the stock, its almost impossible to get a decent short or long that pays well, its been on my avoid trading list for some time purely on the lack of trading. So will await some better analysis to put forward hopefully from Duncan.

On a cheery note: SE Asia Stocks - Most fall on oil price jitters, global economic woes. Could it be that with the decline in speculation (long) on commodities the realities are biting. Its clear there's a contraction in financing trading across all commodities. One example being the Philippines unprocessed ore story a few months back would have added near 30% to the price. The metal is balanced with limited over supply. The only deduction being there was limited capital available for speculation, which would be evidenced in the gold $ consolidation. 

With the significant fall of Gold, perhaps parties have been unable to buy and actually tied significant cash up (stale bulls). 2015 should enable further volumes. Safety can be had with lower cost producers, so one would be wise to make sure a Co can produce at 30% lower prices for most commodities. 

Arian Silver Corp Issue of Equity Hmmmm....a company I used to have high hopes for (4 years ago).

To leave Friday with some food for thought, Vedanta (VED) Q2 and H1 Production Release was dire. If one's toast is made for the jam I'd recommend you dry it thoroughly as it could be some time in coming or perhaps feed it to the birds! More to come on VED...One would find it hard to justify closing any shorts until, some glimmers of hope.

Atb Fraser

PM Ramble: COP (Circle Oil), IRON & SLP...the odd healthier option aka Greggs

In discussions people were surprised at the potential of Circle Oil (COP) compared to its lack of share price performance. As such, one would be wise to reread my comments on Circle Oil in the comments section. Morning Mumble: Why I'm long Dixons Carphone (DC.) in the short-term & Oxus Plc (OXS), Gregg's & FML. This in addition to, the oil price and swelling of supply has not aided the company.

With hilarity, a Pig Iron (potential) producer  (read as developer) (Ironveld) is mystified (Dr P Cox (twitter as below) why their price is tanking. They are not a victim of a misunderstanding but a tightly held stale bull stock that was ripe for shorting and selling down. 

When Directors start to understand the market fully, they'll understand their share price performances. Ironveld is suffering by a double whammy, of sellers in SLP (Sylvania Platinum) and IRON. For those that know my views on SLP, and the board costs which are in my opinion unjustified in the present market and would enable the payment of a dividend, people have tired of the tomorrow. So with some promise to the stock now a lot of the shorts are closing (IRON), one awaits the news Re: Funding and Development. Perhaps the stale bulls can breathe a sigh of relief now.

It was positive for the Greggs (GRG) traders to embrace the common-sense approach to the last news and take some off the table, with a good level of consolidation. What will the run to Christmas bring?...Will my fluke commentary be validated? One certainly to watch / trade pending on your views of course. 

Atb Fraser

Morning Mumble: The REAL version...LOND, Gold, PGM's and Palm Oil! + some Share options!

Good Morning, I had made notes to copy and pastes when this blog is returned, however it's on another computer and my 'cloud' appears to have some thunder so it'll have to wait. 

Yesterday was the start of waving goodbye to London Mining (LOND), who’d have thought a few years ago they paid a £1 divi, sold stock at 400+, 250. Now, due to various issues the shareholders will get little if anything for their paper. A darling, that once was strategically placed to do well. Looking at my previous thoughts, LOND had great potential, but is a true example of why you should be careful of changing markets. Read as: the blind holding of shares never works when the market deteriorates. 

We also had Dicks Phone (Dixons Carphone / DC.) presenting their strategy for the Group, followed by a store tour including a new Carphone Warehouse store-within-a-store. I’m averse to this type of model (read as PR) as those that are at risk of salesmen and PR may actually be swayed by the day rather than the facts. I’ve met a few of Directors of AIM companies in my time, two of which have become good friends, post any investment, but I will not be meeting any others nor will I cover, invest or change my position in those companies I drink a beer with employees. It has enabled me to gain a lot of insight into AIM though, so apologies in advance if sometimes they feel used!

Centamin Egypt (CEY), despite having a small position from August, have come in very strong with their production.Q3 preliminary production results show improvement across the board. One could be forgiven for thinking that a company (CEY) will surpass their production forecasts and leaves one post any euphoria to consider risking more capital. Just what the market needed to stop the rot...expect some other news out of Centamin in due course if the rumours are true. Josef El-Raghy is hungry for expansion and some decent acquisitions, the time is upon the market.

The Central Asia Metals Employee Share Plan 2011 allocations today are a tad overly rewarding in my view. I fail to see the justifications, as a supporter of the company it makes one reappraise their views. With the most recent share sale as well, one would be wise to review the risks. 

With the volatility in precious metals and not-so-precious such as Silver. The Chinese and Asia markets are certainly tucking in gold, not so impressively with PGM's (Platinum Group Metals) and Silver. The switch trade is suggesting from Platinum to Palladium, time will see on that. 

As readers will be aware I have been acquiring Gold ETF's Physical and spreadbet in gold based on the trades today. Yesterday's considerable swing (for Gold) was an opportunity to bank some quick gains. Gold sitting at 1225,80$/Oz, something that won't change in % terms until the volumes increase; which they are doing. Indian demand, will assist...the Indian Festival and Wedding Season is upon us, so expect some support. With limited sellers at the current price the supply could need a enticement to get the sellers in the market. 

Now if one was to consider the read across to the market for Sime Darby makes £1.1bn bid for New Britain Palm Oil (FT Article), expect some price action on REA Holdings...Notification regarding shareholdings of directors and of connected persons and company transactions in own preference shares following capitalisation issue, although is one of them technically a buy? With MPE's interim accounts (just recent September) showing the industry has had a kicking with a decline in price, is Sime Darby calling the bottom? I suspect so, 

MPE's accounts show significant improvement in the industry it's a lofty valuation but if one gets their telescope out its clear there's significant potential for Palm. Reading the FT Article, they are of the view palm is strategic, expect further consolidation / acquisitions in this sector. MP Evans (MPE) is more diverse and has Australian Cattle holdings, which should show some improvements as well, albeit quite why one has Palm Oil and Cattle in the same company raises an eyebrow!?Subsistence fertiliser?!

Plenty going on in the oilers section...sadly not the time to cover. 

Atb Fraser