Morning Mumble (Via Email): Victoria Oil & Gas (VOG) for once positive...

Victoria Oil & Gas Sales Agreement Signed. I've taken out the "major part" on the basis its wise for parties to not get carried away. 

The Highlights (Copy & Paste):

• · Major gas sales agreement signed with ENEO

• · Gas to be supplied to Logbaba(30MW) and Bassa (20MW) power stations under a two year contract at a fixed price of US$9/mmbtu 

• · Gas consumption to generate 50MW is 10.1mmscf/d of which minimum take or pay component is 90% in dry season and 30% in wet season

• · ENEO's schedule requires 50MW of power to be online by end Q1 2015 

• · Total GDC gas production for 2015 expected to average 10.4 mmscf/d.

Amusingly, it was only suggested the other day that VOG's now ripe for a low ball take out now 99% of the pain has been suffered, oh the irony. The valuation would allow for circa £1 after today's news, albeit one would be wise to discount management yet again. 

Atb Fraser

Morning Mumble (Via Email): Morning Mumble: Ramp-Tastic...Afren.

Unscheduled due to the amount of ramped messages.

Afren Plc (AFR) are being suited by quite a few companies and ramped by many. The short list is ever expanding including ENOC (DXB Government) and Heritage Oil (Qatari). In addition to SePlat there's allegedly ADDAX Petroleum (owned by SinoPec) and Nexen (CNOOC) are weighing up a bids (some allegedly submitted). 

So without breaking down the balance sheets of every single listed entity operating in Nigeria the short list goes to SePlat (1:0.85 AFR) probable because of the longer-term upside in shares, ENOC (less likely) and Nexen's (£1) owners CNOOC Ltd and Sinopec (£1.09), the latter being able to afford a decent cash offer to entice those grappling with significant losses. 

Without shaming people, whether their view is Afren Plc are worth 165-190 pence a share or not, perhaps they need to turn on a monitor and look at the current oil price. If they can find a value of 170 pence per share be suspicious there was more than brandy in the mince pies. 

Contrary to some press speculation of being unable to defend a bid, are hedged to accommodate their capital expenditure for circa 12+ months, have had a good result in Madagascar (Block 1101) and some good shareholder support. It's easy to assume if one doesn't know the larger shareholders that the company is distressed because of the recent BoD issues; lack of permanent CEO, in fact lack of a lot of directors. The company, save for the BoD issues have good assets, albeit without opening a computer, Afren's estimated profit margin would be nil at current prices without a hedge. and barely 10% with. 

The risks (common-sense) will be a sustained drop in oil prices (likely) and a bid not going ahead (unlikely) shareholders are limited in their choices in the current market so may feel compelled. Disappointing for a company with such good prospects and overly punished because of the corporate governance debacle that occurred. 

Afren have allegedly had a few speculative approaches and this is the first to come to light, perhaps it would be wise to formalise an auction process to obtain the best for the shareholders. 

Merry Christmas Fraser

Disc: Long.

P.S. Merry Christmas Atlas Iron Holders...whom informed me the share price has not dropped for a few days! (Christmas drink anyone?)

Merry Christmas & the Years Finale + Cheese.

With the festivities upon us whether you celebrate Christmas or not, have a great break or holiday season. The last one from me until 2015 (*Subject to change and significant announcements). Merry Christmas, Fraser

The bolt on: Afren Gossip

There's gossip that Afren will be offered 0.85 Seplat shares for every 1 Afren circa 102 pence currently. That would be significantly above my value in the current market but perhaps reflecting the discovery? Atb Fraser

It would be wise to add a caveat of investing purely on gossip isn't a bright idea! Or should the term be gamblin on gossip!

Morning Mumble: The Year's Round Up...+ some sundry

Good Morning, I'm not sure what I have done to the layout/settings or should I say what my daughter has done. Having been sat on my lap in the office whilst I took a call it appears as though she elected to change something. 

It's been hard to summarise the year where negativity crept in to the markets and sell-side was on the increase, only at the last minute to be FED fuelled (read as crack) by their commentary on interest rates. It should be noted that up until more recently there was a lack of speculation amongst commodities save for the more recent run (up and down) on gold and the big boys positions in copper. Its wholeheartedly absent, almost as though funds/investors are unwilling to commit. 

The reasoning for the contraction in speculation has been multifaceted and doing damage from all angles. It has been exacerbated by the likes of Citigroup (WSJ article: Citigroup Was Wary of Metals-Backed Loans. Bank Forged Ahead in a China Commodities Market Now Roiled by Fraud Allegations), BNP Paribas SA, UBS AG and Deutsche Bank AG looking at what lending (repos) they have and whether the metal is actually there. 

The saga continues in court:UK court reserves judgement in Citi, Mercuria's Chinese metals dispute. One would be wise to follow the case as pending on the outcome, could prompt the most radical changes in commodity financing for near 100 years. 

In addition, investors wrongfully overexposed themselves in 2013 to all commodities causing further contraction in 2014 including the bet on equities. Prime examples being gold, silver, iron ore and copper as they brought forward monies/leverage to take advantage of the "almost guaranteed appreciation." Most people then believed that prices would slip moderately but did not realise that demand was and is slipping as the realities of global economies become known. So the rush to the door in-conjunction with reducing demand has caused the slump. The longer-term consensus and speculators will no doubt be starting to take a view and grasp opportunity. 

More recently companies have been predicting demand or expectations of demand with surplus and/or oversupply expectations being reviewed downwards. Glencore are forecasting a copper deficit (FT) that not only contradicts the swelling in supply and better managed inventory levels by the Chinese but the reality of the housing market in China (key growth driver). They would perhaps be wise to look at realities of better stock management and a decline speculation. 

So with the Dollar gaining strength, Russia formally going tits up via their own making (read as sanctions) and their lack of investment in their economy preferring instead to spend everything (and more), miners are set to have their best opportunity to make a profit. Those marginal companies whom operate around the world should be able to make a profit if they can't its time to get shot of the management! In addition, those more remote miners reliant on diesel generators should be able to reduce their OPEX per lb/oz or tonne near 20-25%, expect some crap to get funded as well! 

Its wise to reserve judgement on the longer term outlook until its fully formalised, what is being evidenced in a consolidation across markets at a lower level, this includes in China where expectations are being slowly repositioned (downwards). With the likely risks of default in developing countries whom are reliant on oil there's going to be more conflict locally and volatility on the market as a result. 

Reading across, with costs reduction globally, especially utilities the M&A scene is set to be one of the most active we've had for a long-time. Expect action in utilities and mid-cap miners whom are able to produce at a profit. Services and Engineering within O&G (if the oil price continues to average down over the longer-term) may have a double hit. The recent fall and levelling in Weir Group et Al is is insufficient. One would be wise to wait for the oil companies final thoughts before catching that knife. Its likely at these prices CAPEX will have to be further reduced below the 15-20% consensus. 

Will leave the specific equity commentary for another time, save for Premier Oil (PMO) getting some cash in by selling two assets for Circa $147.5 million and Rare Earth Minerals (Scoping Study) which has a few assumptions based on demand; one just needs circa $500M to get the earth moving. Today's cheeky Christmas trade goes to TINCI HOLDINGS LIMITED Proposed Cancellation of Admission of Ordinary Shares to trading on AIM & 20 pence offer and Tesco...+ people would be wise to look at FXPO (Ferrexpo Plc)'s power issues. Its not likely to convince the shorts to close out from the obvious. 

Some Christmas cheer for Circle Oil (COP) in Morocco. Rumours still going round of a take out for COP. No prizes for guessing who...on the Moroccan results it might just convince me to become a buyer in the New Year. 

Atb Fraser

Morning Mumble: Equities overcooking...Supply...and energy. Plus New Year's resolution: Fitbug? MirLand...(Yes MirLand)

Good Morning, the blurry eyes of a fab night! The hotel will be restocking the bar for awhile and it was such a pleasure to get a brilliant mix or as my dictionary states eclectic mix even an Atlas holder that could afford a flight!

We're reminded of the oversupply looming in almost every area from Oil to Tungsten (see price declines left) and coffee as eluded to yesterday. Apologises for the link however I'm not at home/in the office so having to rely on good old Google/sponsored entities for which I have no known connection with. With prices down near 30% its no wonder the Chinese are dictating the tungsten price with the rest of Europe following. Its apparent with the FED moves and promises of low interest rates that the market is growing in its disconnect from the risks.

Just yesterday that Mosman Oil & Gas (MSMN) announced the long awaited Corporate and NZ Resource Update. Amazingly enough, it was with no surprise to those with enough intelligence to tie their shoelaces what the probability / outcome would be. It would be wise if parties would not use the term Petroleum Creek in conjunction with MSMN, perhaps omitting the word petroleum and adding "up the." This is a stock I was advised time and time to buy by various people including some sort of campaign . It would be wise if people re-read the history here. ...How the all-share-takeover's go by the end of the month is anyone's guess. 

There's plenty of analysis required on today's capacity announcements for energy companies. One would be wise to look at SSE's lack of wins and the issues it creates for capacity read with electricity price control for the eight years from 1 April 2015. For those looking for a home for Circa £17 billion its back to SVT (Severn Trent) in light of the price controls for the initial buy!

Could Fitbug be the Christmas trade...having been there once it would be rude not to at least consider their announcement fully...New Retail and Marketing deals agreed with Amazon, Best Buy.com and Target.

  If ever there was a statement of impending doom it was MirLand's reading of their third quarter Results....but worse to flag the announcement Mirland Dev Corp PLC Retraction - The economic situation in Russia. Then today to MirLand, the Company is providing further commentary now following recent developments in the economic situation in Russia. Combined with...a 'negative' view of the Credit Rating for Bonds. With Inventories of buildings for sale now needing a little adjustment expect some news shortly. Amazingly a significant contraction of stock available for the borrow this morning!

Back later...Atb Fraser

Morning Mumble: Shed for sale & CU (any surprises with Russian's)

Good Morning, Afternoon (forgot to click publish)

Since Anglo American Platinum Stock Rises on Bokoni Mine Sale Report my shed is up for sale circa $100M it has zero IRR, zero risks of write-downs likely in the short-term, zero strike risks and best of all, save for changes in the council tax system it'll be fairly cheap for care and maintenance. If one still isn't sure, you can pay my salary as well just to make you feel like you're getting a really good deal! Still tempted...

Tonight is a gathering of the unfamous and disliked for the Christmas cheer of the informal works do. We felt as though we were missing out on the festivities being locked up in rooms shorting stocks it was unfair! As such, contrary to people's belief that we don’t do positives, tonight will challenge that. With some bigwigs volunteering themselves to come along, they must be in good spirits, they’re in for a shocker! Will they admit to dining with yours truly...not likely!

Saying that with the FED news and witching upon us tomorrow a higher proportion of rollovers after the FED move and traders getting more than they expected in bonuses! The Christmas rally...what's left of it post the carnage of Oil and Russia. One just needs Venezuela's default risks to be realised and a default on debt now looking likely. All those income / interest hungry folk best have adequate protection. If you rate junk as low risk you get what you deserve. 

Quite how Petroleos de Venezuela SA got debt away at 5.25% circa is staggering; when's the next payment? Not to worry the internal defaults are just as likely. So its over to Venezuela to decide when to default. Contagion is unlikely in the short-term but one would be wise to view the situation as the indicator of all developing countries (loose term) whom are reliant on Oil Revenues...and Russia.

With copper prices being under stress one's reliably informed that Russian commodity traders are slopping the stuff out on the market (including off market deals) to get the cash in the coffers. Copper's supply appears to be stacking up, unless this is a short-term trend expect CU to follow others with significant drops,

Short one today (I know), as plenty to do to close down for Christmas. It's hoped there can be a catch up on a few items that should be covered if not, put it just behind Ian's LGO Vs MOG promises! 

Atb Fraser

Morning Mumble: Severn Trent (SVT), over-egg-ski (Russia) & Dixons Carphone (DC.) + Sweetener (TATE).

Good morning, its been a manic week with the market being very demanding on all fronts. 

With SVT's average pricing suggesting it's the lowest cost provider of water in the UK it's no wonder an offer is on its way for 2015. SVT's higher net debt weakened SVT's position of demanding a premium at various price tags up to 2530 (circa 2350 being the money) that have been suggested. In contrast the 14% profit margin will be appealing in light of the risks now being subscribed to the emerging markets. 

More significance should be placed upon SVT's CAPEX and costs with supplier margins under pressure (P+ve for SVT) and that the area of supply is more favourable in capex than Thames Water (higher costs etc..). This is since Liz Garfield's arrival from BT (will need to double check), but a SVT's area of supply shows the population is growing with more resilience economically than other parts of the country (agricultural bias). 

There's area for improvement in terms of SVT's bad debts for all water companies, whom appear to have the collection ability of the lottery commission. SVT's bad debt is running circa 2.2% of customers, compared to Thames Water whose problem caused an application to increase the bad debt levy in 2013. What more does a consortium of investors want? Over to Canada. 

The BRIC forecasts are being amended in light of the massive changes in oil impacting all, with positive implications for China and India although Brazil and Russia being left out in the cold (add Venezuela on to that list as well). 

Russia have kindly had another kick from America FT (further sanctions). One hopes that Russia doesn't knowingly find themselves in a corner. Russia is not one to tolerate being placed in the corner and if history is an indicator of the future will lead to an escalation. Had America waited the psychology of a dire economy, foreign exchange and capital flight would have pressured the Russian administration (read as Putin) to yield without too much egg on his face. As it stands the US sanctions have given a perfect headwind for propaganda. Over to Putin for the next shot, one has to wonder whether he's asked someone to turn the taps off, as American sanctions against Russia appear to be just a tad "over-egg-ski."

Dixons Carphone (DC.)  have come out with the obvious interim results and benefaction from Phones 4 U (P4U) , with expansion aided obviously by the acquisition of P4U stores. Any of the long only contingent that did not have this in their portfolio should be asking why. A sure fire long, but there's a risk growing as a result of BT.A firing the first shot. 

One hopes DC.'s model is able to survive not only the quad play offerings (BT.A) but those of the networks putting pressure on the market. DC. have a unique position where the networks (and change) may put significant pressure on the DC. With events unfolding with BT.A be prepared for some change in the Mobile Virtual Network Operators, something EE has a monopoly on. 

All networks are intent or gaining customers directly dropping the middle man (improved margins), but with the main alternative being DC. they have plenty of dry powder in the event of strong-arming. If all networks decide to go direct only or limited offerings outside of their own subsidaries...EE were known to be considering this in July (2014), but under BT.A with their brand power, it would be wise to price in some risks to DC. .

Commodities unsurprisingly dropped again overnight with the speculation still categorically absent. The knife-catchers need more enticement, what say you $2.75/lb to bring out the post Christmas temptation across the board but using copper as the indicator. Gold had a lovely rally with the rouble yesterday only for the market to realise the cost of gold and uncertainties in Russia making any speculation short-lived. 

Limited time for TATE (Tate & Lyle) but on reading could the tide be turning? Expect a change in tone from the sell side, but its not something to be rushing in to buy in the coming market. Perhaps one for later if I have time. 

Atb Fraser

The PM edition: Pressure Technology + retreat or defeat.

EMC Pressure Technology & 1 December 2014 at 21:47 commentary appears to have upset a few of the longs. The market is re-correcting and so are the pricing expectations for engineering services, parts and the suppliers all of them coming under pressure (bad pun). Today was the day to close fully on Pressure Technology, not because of the abuse of the "long only contingent" but because its about the money now. What next, being blamed for the rouble crash and oil oversupply. 

The Russian debacle has left Putin with two possible denial options, the first is give in and retreat east from the Ukraine, the other being to not give in and retreat financially (the defeat). Not many options are left for Putin and Chums. With Russia heavily weighted on oil et al, one would be wise to avoid those leveraged plays. More so, Putin's position is now untenable, with cuts more than likely across the board but this is not going to be popular.

Evraz, as a prime example of a leveraged U$D dominated debt is a company is running out of options and at what point do the writedowns occur? Evraz have shelved their infrastructure IPO (Evraz Said to Delay North American Unit’s IPO on Falling Oil) as margins are likely to come under further pressure and a premium valuation becomes unlikely. In the absence of the first of two denial options, Evraz are set for near 50 pence; just to break a few rules.

Atb Fraser

Morning Mumble: China Data yet again contradicting those overly bullish analysts & shorters heaven! Certainly the Christmas Cheer!

Oil prices fall, stumbling emerging markets dent outlook and growth likely to be at the lower end near 7.1%, its rosy just not as rosy as someone would have you believe. China are dealing with deflation across the board and with so much weighted against property which is in a dire slump, the bets are increasing for stimulus. 

With Russia and emerging markets set for a kicking in the proverbial expect some more volatility in the global markets. Asia and India are likely to suffer more woes as a result of the risks being placed on their economies, commodities obviously are reacting accordingly. The Super Cycle is clearly in contraction the positive being for AISC (all-in-sustaining-costs) which should develop a positive cycle for shareholders assuming the management of companies get competitive. 

The irony being the contraction will have caused the markets to stay lower for longer where they cut costs/spending significantly. Oil (Brent) has to drop below $51.05 before it becomes oversold. The measure being that 75% of the market cannot be profitable at that level. Basic economics shows the market cannot be oversold until the majority are unable to produce at the price aka survival of the fittest. America could potentially weather circa 48.15$/bl. 

Copper has been the silent short with demand per day since mid-November dropping suggesting the the economics of lower demand are playing out compared to a steady level of supply and demand and potential deficit (GLEN's views). One to watch...and just to assist the supplies of copper and BLT's iron ore stance on copper, US Senate Approval Paves the Way for Copper Projects. Keep on pushing the copper supply boys! We'll need Kleenex for a certain copper trader if the price continues to drop (perhaps some hedging would be wise).

The woes of the U$D and Oil are playing out predictably (link to 9th December 2014 ECM) on gold, with drops overnight in Asia consistent with the theme of NY, the gauntlet for Europe to keep it's head above $1200/oz. With costs dropping in terms of production and the key AISCs one would be wise to consider $915/oz a real risk if oil maintains its path. Yes $915/oz, there's some negative cheer to keep the Petropavlovsk (POG) contingent that are still holding happy. You know what's coming, a mirror and a chat! POG are worth no more than 5.25 pence as it stands and that's assuming a gold price of $1200/oz, yet again too predictable only a week ago, year ago etc...Nevermind the implications for Randgold et al (RRS).

Staying with today's overly positive theme, a favourite of mine recently (not for the long either), Zanaga Iron Ore (ZIOC) project update has announced their plans. We'll leave ZIOC to summarise why the project isn't progressing that much and rather sums up GLEN's (Glencore's) need to be patient to take it cheaply approach. From the RNS: During the Funding Round initiative conducted jointly by ZIOC and Glencore, a number of entities expressed an interest in discussing an investment in the Project alongside the joint venture partners. Engagement with interested entities is expected to continue, however, we believe that current iron ore market conditions need to stabilise before formal discussions can resume.

And Clifford Elphick, the Non-Executive Chairman of ZIOC commented: "Following the recent drop in iron ore prices, we are cognisant of the need to reduce the annual cash costs of the Project. Fortunately, the most costly work programmes required for the assessment of the Zanaga Project have already concluded alongside the completion of the Feasibility Study, and the Project's key value-adding activities will now be conducted off a much lower cost base.". Read as: in other words not much is likely to happen for the foreseeable future. 

If one is to believe the Zanaga Iron Ore Project Feasibility Study Results then surely there's a contradiction between expressions of interest and viability of the project. At the suggested figures (and costs) and GLEN's desire for iron ore there remains only one possible outcome, a lovely cheap take out? This months top performers (short) save for Pathfinder in the longs, are Rio Tinto (RIO) racing BLT (BHP Billiton), GLEN yet to have a further kicking, but with greater illiquidity in the stock it'll take a little longer for the rot. 

Perhaps certain parties at a recent mining get-together want to reappraise there 3000-3300 targets on RIO and discreetly tippex out the buy recommendation, along with many others. Why any analysts in a declining and shifting market goes bullish on a stock where earnings are being eroded is something I've yet to learn? Fees anyone? Knife catching!

What more does the AIM market want that Sula Iron & Gold (SULA)'s Maiden JORC Compliant Mineral Resource Estimate at its 100% owned Ferensola iron ore project in Sierra Leone. There will be many that wish to thank Kibo Mining (KIBO) for making sure the market understands the Imweru Gold Project, with limited figures to work out a rate of return, the assumed gold price doesn't bode well for financing, 90% recoveries, 0.40g/t cut off...its time for myself to start thinking about mining behind the garden shed! We'll await the full operational update from KIBO "before year end an operational and strategic overview for the Company covering and summarising all areas of operations, current status and forward looking plans." Placing anyone?

Limited time for Afren's (AFR) drilling result which will no doubt be lost in the seas of red for oilers currently. If one found refined oil  it would still be negative in the current market. Better yet, Antrim Energy (AEY) response to the offer from Sound Oil is odd. Could someone just slip a copy of today's oil and gas prices under their noses and if AEY already have said prices, could someone turn it the right way round! In a backwards sense for shareholders, Bowleven (BLVN) directors should be congratulated for not coming out with a repriced LTIP (Long-term incentive plan) with the Lapse of December 2011 LTIP awards.

The departure of Iofina's (IOF) Director is being rightly priced in today, one wonders what other focus Mr. Jeffery Ploen has? Perhaps its just not being part of Iofina? 

On a very cheery note for a Tuesday, Atb Fraser

Evening Ramble: BT exclusivity with EE &...the implications

BT Holding Talks to Acquire British Mobile Carrier EE for $19.6 Billion (Bloomberg). For those that have been following BT including when they acquired the 4G licences. It was with delight to have spotted the potential of BT.A's licences for 2x15MHz of FDD and 20MHz of TDD 2.6GHz spectrum and how savvy the buy was yet pooh-poohed by most as it being akin to a conspiracy. The start of the pure-quad-play...

The problem that BT.A have at the price tag suggested is the amount of shares to be issued, today saw 400 pence support breached. Its rare for me to believe in companies of this size. The offering is significant for BT.A but its wise to sideline (money off the table) until events unfold. With the risks associated with Sky having to overpay to maintain share, BT.A's auction price in the event it wins, and Vodafone's lack of UK strategy, its wise to consider the risks. BT could have some potential tax savings in the deal as well...with various elements provided by Irish Companies. 

Any deal with EE should be considered in how gunned up BT.A want to stay to bid in the PL (Premier League) auction. The % cash element for the deal will give an indication of how aggressive it wants to be in the auction process. Its still maintained the above licenses plus EE's (or O2's as this could be a clever play) will change the offering. Personally, watching something on a mobile weather sports or a video longer than 30s is just one step away from never leaving the house. We'll need park assist for our bodies as we'll never look up! 

Sky's biggest problem is how much they can pay without overpaying. With the total bids set to be near £4 billion in total Sky's cost per user is likely to be well ahead of BT.A's unless a decent JV can be organised with Vodafone sharpish. Can Sky afford to pay £3 billion for 126 games in a various mix, the favoured and potentially more expensive being the Friday games package of 10+4 others. BT.A's EE deal plus ambitions means they're not going in with a view to acquiring just 28 games. Fair play to the premier league...(I know). This auction is guaranteed to do the most damage to Sky in the event of failure, conservative estimates of 650 pence, 25% drop would be a best case scenario. BT's potential and pricing have just increased with this mobile deal that in its current form Sky don't have the luxury of. 

Over to Sky to a) acquire O2 b) be acquired or c) be a significant also ran, the risks to Sky without a shadow of a doubt mean there's materially more downside than warrants holding long, even if they won 50% of the PL auction, due to the absolute overpayment they must make. Expect some news from Sky very soon on strategy, they're running out of choices. 

Speaking today, it was interesting that Vodafone was suggested as a wild card bidder today for PL rights...? Stranger things have happened. 

Atb Fraser

Morning Mumble: Pathfinder Minerals (PFP), Fox Marble (FOX), Greggs (would be rude not too) & WRES (tide turning)

Good morning, a hectic weekend and myself finding myself in the Christmas spirit, yes I'm officially long Christmas. 

Pathfinder Minerals Update Re. Mozambique Court Proceedings brought some Christmas cheer to the holders of the litigation fuelled PFP. The market has rightly ascribed a value to PFP's claims and the outlook is better after today than had previously been priced in. Over to General Veloso and Diogo Cavaco to decide the next move. One assumes now that ownership is not in dispute the remedy is closer than most parties envisaged. Obviously there's more to do it in terms of legal representations. The supreme court paperwork based on the information in the public domain makes for a common-sense outcome, this does not mean that shall happen but its certainly looking more than likely. 

Fox Marble Holdings Sales Agency Agreement came out today, with sales agency agreement with Zhong Shengdestone Co, ("ZSC") headquartered in Beijing, China. It bodes well for Fox Marble, but an exclusivity agreement does not for Fox, this should have been a regional agreement over any Country licence. We'll ignore the fact should a customer become the agent as there's pros and cons to this type of agreement but exclusivity like certain issues Baxi faced with British Gas a few years back, did not turn out as planned. This is something to consider if/when INSP (Inspirit Energy) if the gossip is to be believed. 

We'll await further sales agreement updates before going negative, but suffice to say the company's positives are being limited by this type of agreement. Upside yes, but now being limited, exclusivity with the quality of stone should have been with some form of financial payment to FOX to motivate the partner. The minimum order of 10K tonnes is...erm...paltry.  

Gregg's (GRG) came out today with yet again better than expected results in their trading update today. Expect some reviews and upgrades, the comparison year should not be read as like for like based on the previous years figures being below par. Its not wise to attempt to go negative with the company performing better than market expectations, so yet again the patient are waiting for the turn (negative). The GRG model appears to be well received by their customers including the face lifts and product offerings. Was I wrong to call the results in September a fluke? My view not, but the market and the company have clearly told me otherwise today. With my eye more so on the weather and retail, its under review  with this type of model / business likely to benefit from falling oil prices (more money in the customers profit). 

Johnson Matthey sold its Gold and Silver Refining Business for £118 million to Asahi Holdings Inc. JMAT has yet to suffer on the same scale as the likes of most refiners / commodity operators due to the value the market is placing on its chemical and technological applications. Why JMAT are flogging the refining business with returns of Circa 25% which is above what JMAT's other parts of the business provide gives an indication on the outlook for Gold. It's a good return in the current climate for gold. Being valued at Circa £6.8B JMATs above its money, expect it to give up some of the recent gains, in light of commodities and pricing including some pressure on JMAT's margins. JMAT's previous half year results for the six months gives an indication of the pressure they're under until the cycle in commodities (and commodity based tech) improves.  

Today's no news award goes to Kefi Minerals (KEFI) as they announce that the total Mineral Resource at Jibal Qutman is approximately 30% greater than previous estimates (whoopee?). With the current gold price and recovery of around 80% on this low grade project its really a question of why they're bothering with it (at the moment). The focus is on the ex-Nyota Minerals Tulu Kapi, perhaps Kefi should reduce the number of spinning plates post honouring the new 4 license commitments to minimal exploration. The noise will be about Tulu Kapi through to June/July 2015. Should I be turning bullish, unlikely...

W Resources Plc (WRES) turns the Power On at La Parrilla Mine Connects to Spanish Grid. This might go some way to stop the rot in the SP. Investors seem to be blind to the declining tungsten prices, led 4 weeks ahead by China (yes it has got that predictable). The funding arrangement with Bergen Global Opportunity Fund, LP did not help matters but now with a further reduction in costs, assuming this doesn't make its way to boardroom remuneration the company is starting to tick a few boxes. 

The punt is on the ramp up in production and the utilisation of funding to scale the ops, currently targeting around 25t/pm looks more than likely with Production rates at La Parrilla increased significantly. WRES state they're achieving target rates of around 1 tonne per day on a number of days during the second half of November following the installation and successful commissioning of new feed systems in early November. Strong interest has been expressed from a number of customers for 2015 supply contracts and deliveries continue to our European customers. 

Limited time, Atb Fraser

Morning Mumble: Friday is here...Oil will be grateful & Copper.

Good Morning, 

Its somewhat late that the FT runs with US oil price below $60 a barrel. Oil echoes the pains of all commodities. The simple explanation is companies (even Chinese) are better at managing supplies. More so, everything about the pricing contradicts those Chinese bulls with excessive forecasts, the demand from China simply isn't matching the forecasts no matter what the end figure (GDP%) is stated as (link) for the next 12 months at least.

So the economics of oversupply come in to play with what should be seen as a repricing or price correction in Oil, same forall commodities and just to be contrarian of Glencore (GLEN), copper is included. GLEN's mix of assets meant is was a short from the summer like most commodities save for Uranium. The distraction being the Rio/GLEN debacle which meant they had to be closed out. One simply cannot bet on the irrational actions of the Market. GLEN should perhaps tell Codelco who reduced their Chinese copper premium by circa 4% and potentially more for next year but amazingly price in higher default assumptions.

GLEN's asset mix, isn't great, they need some top assets (Rio was attempted). With the damage already done in their asset mix, Nickel down near 40% in 5 years), Copper (down 10% in 5 years but 25% in 4 years) and Zinc (down near 15-20% in 5 years) its no surprise that base metals are assumed as a safer bet if one assumes they've stabilised. Albeit they are a lot of assumptions in those prices. For example, the amount of second-hand deals (fire sales) coming to market for Copper its indicating a lower demand and leverage. 

There's also contradiction in the reporting of copper stocks both on the London Metal Exchange, Shanghai Copper Futures (CU) and within China, Standard Charter (STAN) can perhaps tell us a few things about copper not being in demand as much never mind their "copper loans." The press are suggesting stocks have dropped whereas the positions on the market imply otherwise including the views of GLEN being misinterpreted with more supply coming to market up to 2016 support any demand increases. Yes there's some restocking occurring but with most strategic purchases by the Chinese being conducted appropriately in the market, the stability is there. The caveat being any stimulus could drive copper.

If China are forced down the stimulus route rural areas are likely to benefit more so. If so this could push demand near 500k/t's higher in Asia assuming Asian countries follow suit (Thailand/Indonesia). Any surplus is going to be near 1m't for copper going through to 2016 January save for common-sense caveats. Admittedly this is near 500kt's above consensus. However this is completely justified in light of the BHP’s Growing Focus on Copper. Yet again the market needs to start paying attention!

The lack of leverage across ASIA has removed the majority of speculation (save for the big boys) in most commodities and this doesn't assist the consensus either. The just-in-time (JIT) market with limited stockpiles is set to stay and beneficially will give obvious signals to the traders looking for indicators of the health of the global or regional economies. The JIT is being misinterpreted as higher demand when in fact its  better prediction of cycles and management of stocks. This is where Kenmare (KMR) have suffered in their expectations including their over production carrying near one entire quarter in stock.

Zinc would be more favoured, with lesser downside and potentially some nice upside with supply interruptions in-conjunction with mines closing potentially pushing the price to $2.7k/t (a positive for GLEN). Fundamentally one would be wise to keep an eye on the all important $1/lb ($2.204k/t) support level; there's a little more to it than that but with that being 85% of the indicator being the pricing support at least one can assess the positives/negatives in an amateurs way. 

Zinc's performed well this year 10% (circa), demand isn't too throffy but more importantly there's mine closures coming which take around 1/2mt off the global table that is going to be harder to replace. So expect to hear of new projects enticing the finance soon. Over to Minco (MIO) et al on that one for those scratching their heads about AIM plays.

It was so nice of United Utilities to give the link for the Ofwat Final Determination due to time constraints due to its absence I won't have time to tuck in to it. Assuming nothing has gone seriously wrong with the process the draft is likely to be copied and pasted. 

We note the Chinese data but due to commitments more time is required. The data released yesterday shows a slowing of Chinese industrial production. The bulls will pin their hopes on factory closures for air quality measures as the main reasoning. Perhaps they would like to revisit the figures in $ terms for this assertion and come back to with some revisions.  Surprisingly for myself fixed asset and retail figures weren't as weak! 

Off to court goes PCI (Petroceltic) and Worldview, quite what Worldview want to achieve they might like to consider the realities of the market. Legal Proceedings Issued by Worldview without knowing much about this, PCI sum it all up with by stating they wish to avoid such actions etc...but more importantly they will "seek to recover from Worldview, to the maximum extent possible, all costs incurred by the Company in so doing." Group hug?

The final thought goes to Atlas Iron...no change, they can sleep well this Friday!

Atb Fraser 

Morning Mumble: Juridica (whoops)...Victoria Oil & Gas, SXX, uranium, iron ore + your Christmas Cheese (it would be rude not too!)

Good morning, the dogs are drenched today with a walk round the lake early doors and the driving rain wasn't assisting, the dogs enjoyed it.

With the focus of trading on certain elements (short) its easy to forget about those longer-term investments, especially those long. Today, in reading about Oracle Coal (ORCP) I glanced across at the screen and whoops Juridica Investments Limited (JIL) had tanked. JIL, like Burford Capital (BUR) are the preferred litigation plays. Not enough attention was paid to the dividend announcement for those on the register tomorrow. For those whom punted/invested in Rurelec they'll be aware of third party litigation funding. 

Rurelec (RUR) has not been covered much since the award and settlement with Bolivia. The reduction in share capital more recently and the completion of the Canchayllo Run-of-River Hydro Project have done little for the stock. With the Santiago listing in the past any longs will be hoping for a some news of Termonor and Central Illapa projects. Save for anything exceptional happening nothing is likely to happen before the end of January 2015 at the earliest. 

Today, Victoria Oil and Gas (VOG) announce Deloitte Development Cost Report & $10.1m Cash Call Issued. It's not a bad result for VOG but yet again its items outside the BoD with Deloitte doing the assessing and final report. With $6,433,306 of the $10.1 due to be paid on January 5, 2015 its hoped the matter is put to bed. It does evidenced the fractured nature between the two companies. 

VOG would have been wise to wait until these events to consolidate that share (Proposed Capital Reorganisation & Notice of AGM), however you won't find me complaining! The companies illiquid and holders hugging the share with a categorical belief they'll be in the money, the stock was a stocking short! This view has changed...now matters are being put to bed, its with delight the haters will know I've joined the muppets to hold only long (for the time being). When a company is thinking about a share consolidation they should perhaps ask the advice of a decent trader rather than those paid to advise them. Yet another victory for common-sense here. 

It is "hoped" that VOG can now get on with doing what they've stated and complete gas sales, receive payment (something of a risk) and more importantly improve returns for the stale shareholder base. With Christmas upon us, if VOG holders were on the cheese board the nose pegs would certainly be out! If there's any longer-term holders of VOG reading it would be wise to treat yourself to some Epoisses cheese just to remind you of when to sell. For those wiser to this, it would be advised to store it in a sealed container. For those with a little more class I can recommend Affine au Chablis, Epoisses cultured cousin. 

Before this event turns in to the lesser qualified version of some cheese critic, after the departure of Rachel Rhodes (now Ex-Chief Financial Officer) at Sirius Minerals (SXX) with the appointment of Thomas Staley today we're informed of the status of the approvals process. One would have thought it was the application or planning process whereas approvals implies the outcome. Thomas, may or may not be the man for the job, it rather contradicts the need to appoint Rachel in the first place. 

The departure in my experience (having had two) smacks of an NDA (read as a disagreement) but willing to be wrong there as this stage this is 'somewhat' immaterial to the status or development of the project. There could be the perfectly reasonable explanation that Rachel is off somewhere else? SXX reacting on the basis the company's time-scales have been put back, albeit it cannot be much surely and the market need educating in these processes. (Idiotic to say the least). 

As a side thought, if over production of oil / iron ore is causing a knock on issue within the sector, how would the uranium producers (price) be feeling in light of the oil and gas prices. Could Japan be motivated to change their tune? Unlikely, the same as China but it does give them leverage to hold the producers to ransom same as Iron Ore. With that in mind, all profits have been taken...

My final thoughts go the Atlas Iron (ASX: AGO) holders whom must surely be thankful that their share price didn't drop any further yesterday, the pause must enable one to top up? Surely with such conviction they'll be betting more of next Christmas on the gamble? Likewise, quite why PGIL (Polyus Gold) are paying a dividend is bordering on irrational. The dividend of US 16.49 cents per ordinary share will enable certain parties to perhaps buy a few more shares. The all-in-cash-costs (AISC) would be improving in rouble terms to such a level to pay this dividend. Not to be confused with Polymetal International's US$80 million facility agreement with EDB (Eurasian Development Bank), they must have an endless pot of money! Back to school for me.

Atb Fraser

Morning Mumble: Oil, the well is far from dry & a casaulty of sanctions (OAO Mechel (MTL)) + FX predictability.

Good Morning, the shorts should close their positions on my health the recovery is on! Despite a lack of sleep I feel a lot better! 

Today's significant story that is lacking from the front pages...Mechel Quarterly Loss Widens Ninefold on Ruble, Coal Prices; how many more to come?! Mechel are an obvious candidate as they are in an unfortunate position with their two main commodities in dire straits and further impacted by their currency. With the issues unresolved in the Ukraine the Ruble (or Rouble pending preference) is unlikely to improve until Putin yields. Without knowing much about Putin its easy to assume he's a stubborn chap who's unlikely to give-in in a way most would expect. The economy and investment is drying up no matter how much he hugs China. This could have significant issues for BP.

Mwana Africa's (MWA) Christmas party isn't set to be a barrel of laughs. Group hug anyone? If MWA cannot manage this situation its likely to go the way of other stocks Range Resources (RRL); admittedly without as many issues as RRL. Not something shareholders or employees need. With the recent positives of Prescribed Asset status ("PA status") MWA are set for some troubled times that does not bode well for a company wanting to raise finance. 

Oil is certainly the new black in terms of shorting, its amazing how many analysts do not know what is going on. Perhaps some basic lessons in economics would assist a few if you have more supply than demand. The denial was a few months ago, EMC commentary on China stopping strategic purchases. China have been cunning in this respect, the drop in oil could just reduce the probability of further stimulus. Over to be BP on the acquisition of some cheap high quality assets or perhaps a US Major to take the long view. On the small cap super major, there's gossip of an all share offer for Gulf Keystone brewing (please note all share offer). 

Staying in the O&G sector, BG Group (BG.) should be congratulated with BG Group agrees sale of Australian pipeline for US$5 billion with a profit of near 50% in this climate should bode very well for the balance sheet. 

In answer to the spam contingent, I was short FitBug and as it dropped quicker than expected I'm out. Apologies for not advertising trades, this is not a tip sheet nor a paid for provider. The muppets will be pleased to know that its at such a level there's not much stock on the borrow or available for borrow. They have made my Christmas list and as its extensive this year I will have to start writing them this weekend. 

The Australian Dollar really does not need much space or analysis as rightly pointed out by many, the appreciate of GBP Vs. AUD was a sure thing. My targets of two years ago, admittedly a bit premature are being met. Australia economy should to some degree benefit from the weakness. One should always pay attention to prime ministers or Governments wanting a weaker currency, they may just get what they wish for. 

Finally to gold that simply does not know what to do, with markets declining you have a rush to safety (gold), with oil tanking you have a rush to retail. Personally, one has had to side line gold until there is sufficient / consistent volume to avoid the gamble (higher risk) trades. With a dire % net return on gold trades over a month it's best to wait for better indicators. With the gold silver ratio at such a high, silver is looking as though it will respond exponentially...No prizes for guessing what is going on at Nyota Minerals. 

Atb Fraser

Belatedly: The market woke up the realities of what Pressure Technologies did (PRES)

Pressure Technologies today finally informed the market they're in the oil sector being unfortunately punished (Disc: Short). Its unfortunate as the company is well managed and has been a significant long until more recently. Today's final results are positive but one would be wise to work on a 20% reduction in revenue for the year ahead as a conservative approach.

As a separate note, it was amusing to share my thoughts on Petropavlovsk (POG) today with a target price of circa 5.25 pence. Its amazing certain people are supporting the rights issue, would someone be kind enough to remind me if certain parties sold significantly higher so of course it would be rude not to support a rights issue at...5 pence. With the current state of oil likely to have implications (negative) for gold its not a placing without risk.

Atb Fraser

Addition: I had been asked today quite a few times what is happening with Kenmare. The only thing I can conclude is that Kemnare's likely to be an all share offer in the current climate which means any offer is materially lower because of the Iluka Resources share price, down near 30% and dropping since September. 

Amusingly it was some tittle tattle that stated that Rio had a few chaps walk out their offices the other day whom may suggest there's corporate activity going on. It shall be interesting as the market, like I, has removed any possibility of a corporate action on a number of levels. That is not even considering the regulatory approval needed. Perhaps once could have another crap co spin off for certain assets. 

The noise coming out of the investor day for Anglo American (AAL) isn't positive either. Currently with a lethal case of some lurgy no woman could survive its with regret I wasn't able to take the time. So here's a few items, including the webcast and presentation. AAL despite my views should be congratulated for taking this approach of transparency.

Morning mumble: Coal....Mitsui to participate in Vale's Moatize coal mine with the need for Rail and Port Infrastructure Business in Mozambique.

Mitsui to participate in the Moatize coal mine with the need for Rail and Port Infrastructure Business in Mozambique. Timely or overpriced? In light of recent deals in Australia as well! Atb Fraser

Morning Mumble: Potential Manflu but more operational than some miners!

Good Morning, 

There's a spate of potential manflu which I appear to have caught from my daughter! So having been up most of the night with her one doesn't expect much activity today bar essential items. Staying with the theme of manflu it appears we had yesterday’s South32 announcement from BLT (BHP Billiton). The reasoning for the name is not because it gives a good indication of which way the share price is expected to go but because most of the assets are in the southern hemisphere. No doubt contradicting those with common-sense for some time as people position themselves. 

Yesterday also saw the announcement of LMI's Number One Furnace leaking molten furnace matte. For the regular followers of Lonmin (LMI), one hopes this isn't chrome related for saying that LMI have historic grandfather rights to ConRoast (owned by JLP for 10 years) why didn't they make improvements last time? So with cash costs likely to shoot up and net borrowing to increase (anyone's guess on the final figure) will there be the requirement for another rights issue? One assumes they won't be asking the International Finance Corporation for $100M. Quite how LMI will come up with a resolution to mitigate these issues shall be interesting. 

Today's announcement came as no surprise for the FitBug placing the disappointment was I lost out on a bet by a mere 12 hours. The loan conversion looks to be creating an overhang as well with anything above 1.5 pence being in the money. 

Rambler Metals (RMM) inform us of a reoccurring theme that continues with a decline in grade and revenue. With these sort of returns the case for a management change are increasing. RMM's measurements of earnings per share are dire the drop in grades and absence of disclosure of the grades sums things up. The denial contingent will state things can only get better...

Tesco's (TSCO) came out today with some a material statement which pending on demands will come back to in due course. With no position either way, it's certainly an indicator of how competitive the market is currently. Make this year count, next year's Christmas could well be 25% more expensive, so get the elastic waist expander and utilise those cheap track suit bottoms. 

Gold and silver have lost all energy recently after some serious swings the trading implies no one wants to hold a position long, up in NY, down in Asia and back up in London. It would appear a few Australian's had a slap of common-sense and finally got out of Atlas Iron last night. Those knife catchers reading Bloomberg wished they'd ignored Atlas Iron Offers Cheapest Bet on Ore’s Rebound: Real M&A. It makes you wonder what the position of Baosteel Group Corp (Chinese Steel producer) is. Tony Poli must be thankful of the deal earlier in the year, perhaps one of the best deals of the year. 

With Chinese import data out on Sunday, China's Nov iron ore imports hit second lowest this year on Sunday it was no surprise where the bets were. The figures I'm reliably informed have lead (I known!) to a lot of late night work for a few analysts to review their opinion of Rio/BLT. One hopes their figures are better than mine save for a GLEN bid which would be madness and my view is unaffordable. Next stop for Rio is said to be 2600...

So much to cover and so little time, this morning it was the day to close my Afren shorts with a view (no specific timeframe) to buy the equity with the short profits. Afren, despite its positives, is a lesson on when to take a loss sell and short. For those learning the arts of the dark side (as one chap calls it) Afren is perfect example of when to change the shorter-term opinion and get in there.

Atb Fraser

Morning Mumble (Via Email): Indonesian Mining

This is worth a read for those considering the Indonesian issues etc...

Indonesia Mining 2014

Atb Fraser

(Hopefully this worked)

Morning Mumble: Stuffed &...blind hope (CRND)

The Ironveld placing today should be congratulated for getting a placing away anywhere near 7 pence. Having been short on the company there's potential for a good headwind on the company, it wasn't worth 20 pence a share and it the current form its not worth 7 pence in my view. 

The company's offtake agreement is key and rumour from South Africa (SA) is that its progressing well with two interested parties. Peter Cox is very experienced in mining to a significant degree, Having met the chap a few years back in a meeting and in the brief conversation knows his stuff. Time will tell, but its certainly under review, perhaps it should have been at 5 pence but I rarely review items when closing shorts . The brokers should be put on the naughty step for not showing the market the difference between Pig Iron and Iron Ore, perhaps that's harsh but not when the company has such a stale shareholder register. (Please note the term).

The NED's decisions to take their fees in shares is somewhat ironic, one would normally consider this to be a positive. There is also an exception that can be met whereby the fees are paid pro rate in arrears each month which would remove the issues relating to closed periods, that's one for the NOMAD/Brokers. So lets see if my thinking is correct that the shares will be issued at "low periods". Call me sceptical, but there is no reason why a monthly plan of allocation cannot be agreed which removes all the issues and makes the risks equal with share holders. 

Yesterday saw my email box ranting on about Central Rand (CRND) so it was wise to ignore it, apologies. Its wise when taking a view to try and find out what's going on. So after a couple of phone calls  there's a real risk I will be eating my words of a "no deal" for CRND. The  Memorandum of Understanding with the Third company Shengbang Jiabo (Beijing) Consulting Company Limited should be looked at more closely, in fact the associated parties with companies.

We'll leave it there for now, but having been told off for laughing when it was mentioned that there's a real possibility of a deal for circa $82M it might be wise to pay attention. For me CRND is an avoid, the risks of profiting long do not outweigh the material downside. Surely all parties could save money and have one due diligence and all chip in some small change. Wonders will never cease...

It was disappointing to see that the lead in FTFirst wasn't the Vale eyes $14bn base metals spin-off Samantha Pearson in São Paulo. There's been an obvious need for cash and either ramp up or mothballing of some Vale operations for some time in light of the tank. Vale also have another option that was not mentioned about a well-known company acquiring a 50% interest in the Nickel Assets...over to the Chinese on that one. If one wasn't so sceptical they'd assume the PR by Murilo Ferreira was not to force someones hand. The comedy being what does Vale want to use the Nickel Cash for? Iron Ore ramp up! Diversification or what!?!?

For  Just Eat (JE.) , one must feel truly stuffed having bought any stock at 320 pence. Perhaps they'll be dining out on the story for years to come! Sorry for the puns, but consider the sale with the utmost scepticism. Thankfully the sell side with have some rump to tuck into and a third course of shorts ordered. That's some multiple, for the trigger happy, it might be wise to wait a little longer.

Overnight it was delightfully pointed out that Atlas Iron has turned and the end is no longer with a certain contingent hoping I eat BEEP BEEP when the price hits BEEP BEEP $1 (AUS one assumes). Unless I'm mistaken Atlas Iron's share price is circa AU$0.17...that's a hell of a turnaround! Get in there you longs you've thrown the gauntlet down at $2, $1 but there might be hope for you at $0.17! There's always time for AGO.

With volumes coming back in to Gold & Silver it could just be what the market needed to stabilise it i.e. no vote, negative Chinese figures and the inflationary issues globally, or should I say, deflationary! Over to the EU for some QE. Gold has performed very will in light of the strength in the dollar and weakness in oil, surprisingly so. 

No time for FTML due to commitments...one would welcome a statement by Vodafone about a discussion with Sky. Rumour has it there's some more Chinese Property shares needing a home, get your lovely equity now or lower later! Gossip on Firestone Diamonds at the moment with a potential suitor but if I'm honest, its more than likely to be around 3-4 buy recommendations coming through over the past few days. My final thought goes to what does the oil price mean for a leveraged oil stock...

Where's that frock I must dash! Any emails will have to be delayed its been exceptionally busy so don't expect any immediate response. 

Atb Fraser

Morning Mumble: The Swiss gold no vote &...Any old iron punishment because of the Chinese PMI Figures another contradiction for the bulls (get pumping the cash in folks)

Good morning, what a brilliant start to the week!

There's quite a few items that weren't able to be covered last week due to time constraints and commitments, Rio Tinto Investor Seminar - media release update I will also be coming back to. Its hoped when I finish trading for the three ish weeks of Christmas time can be set aside to cover Rio, Severn Trent, + many more and  and the most obvious gold trade of this year. Citi's Willem Buiter informed us last week gold's been in a bubble for 6,000 years: Gold is a 6,000-year bubble - Citi. You'd be wise to consider history when investing, but six thousand years? Give over...

So the Swiss obviously voted no with Gold Tumbles After Swiss ‘No’ Vote as Silver Sinks to 5-Year Low By Glenys Sim for the acquisition of 1,500t's of gold. The market reacted with the predictability of selling down Asia (Currently $1159.46/oz.) with Silver tacking along for the ride at $15.03/oz. with gold now creating towards a the magic 80's:1 ratio (2009) compared to silver (its currently 77), there's a real risk of further slides for gold in addition silver being punished. 

The importance being silver is now at a level not seen for some time and with risks of dipping to the lows of 2008 that means one would be wise to give HOC (Hochschild Mining) another consideration for a short (save for any recovery in Silver). HOC's  operational update last week shows they won't be making a profit at today's prices even next year. With AISC (all-in sustaining costs) likely to be $15-16 an ounce it doesn't bode well. Having reviewed this company if they achieve $16, they should be congratulated, that's even allowing for the ramp up of production, if one was to factor no recover in oil for some time the $15-16 is possible, if oil rises more than 10%, no way josé.

With the dire straits of commodities, its somewhat amusing how positive certain analysts and attendees are this week for Mines & Money. Clearly the hospitality is overriding the need for sobriety. Yours truly is off there cordially invited and transported by a certain group whose taken leave of their senses, having disagreed with me on most items its going to certainly be far from a bore; perhaps I will end up being the court jester! 

In due course, if I'm not going home on foot I'll endeavour to update...we hope there will be plenty of employees from certain AIM companies attending the Yielding High Value Through Optimising Mining Excellence Workshop and Evaluating Risk Management in Mining Projects. Contrary to some warped individuals the diamond drinks is not a speed dating event. If I do find the diamond in the drink I will be sure to set it aside for Ian's (eventual engagement to someone/thing). Its quite handy they need to educate us with "Mining in a day", perhaps for certain individuals that have no idea, will there be a workshop of improving shareholder returns? I can't find it on the programme!  

It was with regret I misread the Beowulf Mining Plc (BEM) RNS assuming with some stupid belief it was the VOG Directorate change email that the board had resigned and there was change afoot. The Victoria Oil & Gas Directorate Change RNS today goes nowhere near what is required at VOG to change my view that parties would be wise only to value the asset. Over to VOG to appoint people with greater experience of Cameroon, albeit unlikely. For BEM it comes with no surprise with a need to spin their other plates, quite why they're focusing on Kallak; yet more higher cost Iron Ore in Sweden. 

Finally, China November PMIs show economy cooling, argue for more stimulus rather sums it up, more importantly people in the National Bureau of Statistics would be kind enough to leave certain stats there long enough for a copy and paste jobby it would be appreciated. So I'll hand the gauntlet over to someone with the time and the patience to find it here  http://www.stats.gov.cn

We'll leave parties to look at the tank on ASX over night...corr blimey!:-)

Atb Fraser