Good morning, the dogs are drenched today with a walk round the lake early doors and the driving rain wasn't assisting, the dogs enjoyed it.
With the focus of trading on certain elements (short) its easy to forget about those longer-term investments, especially those long. Today, in reading about Oracle Coal (ORCP) I glanced across at the screen and whoops Juridica Investments Limited (JIL) had tanked. JIL, like Burford Capital (BUR) are the preferred litigation plays. Not enough attention was paid to the dividend announcement for those on the register tomorrow. For those whom punted/invested in Rurelec they'll be aware of third party litigation funding.
Rurelec (RUR) has not been covered much since the award and settlement with Bolivia. The reduction in share capital more recently and the completion of the Canchayllo Run-of-River Hydro Project have done little for the stock. With the Santiago listing in the past any longs will be hoping for a some news of Termonor and Central Illapa projects. Save for anything exceptional happening nothing is likely to happen before the end of January 2015 at the earliest.
Today, Victoria Oil and Gas (VOG) announce Deloitte Development Cost Report & $10.1m Cash Call Issued. It's not a bad result for VOG but yet again its items outside the BoD with Deloitte doing the assessing and final report. With $6,433,306 of the $10.1 due to be paid on January 5, 2015 its hoped the matter is put to bed. It does evidenced the fractured nature between the two companies.
VOG would have been wise to wait until these events to consolidate that share (Proposed Capital Reorganisation & Notice of AGM), however you won't find me complaining! The companies illiquid and holders hugging the share with a categorical belief they'll be in the money, the stock was a stocking short! This view has changed...now matters are being put to bed, its with delight the haters will know I've joined the muppets to hold only long (for the time being). When a company is thinking about a share consolidation they should perhaps ask the advice of a decent trader rather than those paid to advise them. Yet another victory for common-sense here.
It is "hoped" that VOG can now get on with doing what they've stated and complete gas sales, receive payment (something of a risk) and more importantly improve returns for the stale shareholder base. With Christmas upon us, if VOG holders were on the cheese board the nose pegs would certainly be out! If there's any longer-term holders of VOG reading it would be wise to treat yourself to some Epoisses cheese just to remind you of when to sell. For those wiser to this, it would be advised to store it in a sealed container. For those with a little more class I can recommend Affine au Chablis, Epoisses cultured cousin.
Before this event turns in to the lesser qualified version of some cheese critic, after the departure of Rachel Rhodes (now Ex-Chief Financial Officer) at Sirius Minerals (SXX) with the appointment of Thomas Staley today we're informed of the status of the approvals process. One would have thought it was the application or planning process whereas approvals implies the outcome. Thomas, may or may not be the man for the job, it rather contradicts the need to appoint Rachel in the first place.
The departure in my experience (having had two) smacks of an NDA (read as a disagreement) but willing to be wrong there as this stage this is 'somewhat' immaterial to the status or development of the project. There could be the perfectly reasonable explanation that Rachel is off somewhere else? SXX reacting on the basis the company's time-scales have been put back, albeit it cannot be much surely and the market need educating in these processes. (Idiotic to say the least).
As a side thought, if over production of oil / iron ore is causing a knock on issue within the sector, how would the uranium producers (price) be feeling in light of the oil and gas prices. Could Japan be motivated to change their tune? Unlikely, the same as China but it does give them leverage to hold the producers to ransom same as Iron Ore. With that in mind, all profits have been taken...
My final thoughts go the Atlas Iron (ASX: AGO) holders whom must surely be thankful that their share price didn't drop any further yesterday, the pause must enable one to top up? Surely with such conviction they'll be betting more of next Christmas on the gamble? Likewise, quite why PGIL (Polyus Gold) are paying a dividend is bordering on irrational. The dividend of US 16.49 cents per ordinary share will enable certain parties to perhaps buy a few more shares. The all-in-cash-costs (AISC) would be improving in rouble terms to such a level to pay this dividend. Not to be confused with Polymetal International's US$80 million facility agreement with EDB (Eurasian Development Bank), they must have an endless pot of money! Back to school for me.
Atb Fraser
Fraser- Hi- just back from lunch out (not again....) as The Boss is off and Xmas shopping is never done (apparently). Glad to escape from the masses back from the shopping markets to important markets etc.
ReplyDeleteRe JIL- yes, a 20p divi there so no real change, I hope your posh coffee wasn't spluttered across the room :-)) Good business model there and one of the safest longs around (that will put a curse on JIL for sure- sorry)
Re VOG- yes, the consolidation must look like a good idea but often works out like one of Baldricks cunning plans (I hope you follow Blackadder). In fact I would like to see the name of one smaller company that has consolidated AND improved the share price in the following months. VOG is a bet on the power deal, pretty simple really and given the change of ownership to ACTIS and the competition for the locals to rename it, which gave it the name ENEO, there have been a few hints given by the new owners that they will move from the heavy fuel oil model to gas over the coming period, being years, not months, albeit some initial scheme is likely in Q1 2015. This is in the public domain but ACTIS are private so they don't have to RNS stuff. The RSM litigation is now well in the past and the v v early settlement of the full $10.1m is as good as they could have expected. The issue seems to be with the mgmt. and their mobile goalposts approach over the years in tenure. Im long and have added in the last 2 days based on my numbers and the overall picture here.
Re SXX- personality clash, pure and simple and neither side will admit to this as it looks a bit childish so it may not be an NDA, just silence to preserve each sides business reputations. I see the extra info requirement as positive as it suggests the state of cooperation between SXX and the NYMPA is still intact. NYMPA have pointed out the process doesn't need to be adversarial so a small positive for me. The most likely No scenario would have seen no requests during this period and then a big list of deficiencies at the end. Just my view here.
Cheers. The Leggie