Tuesday 16 December 2014

The PM edition: Pressure Technology + retreat or defeat.

EMC Pressure Technology & 1 December 2014 at 21:47 commentary appears to have upset a few of the longs. The market is re-correcting and so are the pricing expectations for engineering services, parts and the suppliers all of them coming under pressure (bad pun). Today was the day to close fully on Pressure Technology, not because of the abuse of the "long only contingent" but because its about the money now. What next, being blamed for the rouble crash and oil oversupply. 

The Russian debacle has left Putin with two possible denial options, the first is give in and retreat east from the Ukraine, the other being to not give in and retreat financially (the defeat). Not many options are left for Putin and Chums. With Russia heavily weighted on oil et al, one would be wise to avoid those leveraged plays. More so, Putin's position is now untenable, with cuts more than likely across the board but this is not going to be popular.

Evraz, as a prime example of a leveraged U$D dominated debt is a company is running out of options and at what point do the writedowns occur? Evraz have shelved their infrastructure IPO (Evraz Said to Delay North American Unit’s IPO on Falling Oil) as margins are likely to come under further pressure and a premium valuation becomes unlikely. In the absence of the first of two denial options, Evraz are set for near 50 pence; just to break a few rules.

Atb Fraser

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