Very interesting news from Japan, something which will
assist with the recovery of the Uranium Price. The difference being, it's going
to only assist with volumes for the forseeable future with a little price
recovery. Obviously this depends on the speculators that may rush in but with
most being torched as they speculated at $40/lb then $35, do they have it in
them again? One would do well to avoid positions until there is greater support
in the market!
Its nice to see the gloves being taken off and certain
actions being made public: Mediterranean Oil & Gas Plc Litigation Update: Receipt of
Initial £600,000 of Costs from LGO. Shareholders would be wise to get hold
of the transcripts in readiness for the LGO AGM or EGM if parties are likely to
take issue with the matter. £1.5M is not a paltry amount and cost the company
significantly. There would have been wisdom to ask for disclosure before
running to tort/legal actions especially that were so significant in the
allegation. This however, I do believe is not the first time either.
I see Baobab Resources have pushed the positives forward...BAO’s CSIRO Pyrometallurgical Testwork Update. Looks like
there is quality in the asset now and with sufficient funds to complete the
Definitive Feasibility Study. With by products (credits) it looks a goer, the
question for most will be 'longer term funding for development.' On the flip
side, having held Ironveld (IRON) BAO are certainly offering better prospects
including being closer to development.
Yesterday it was surprising there was not more coverage of
the potential delisting of Russian Miners such as Polyus Gold, Polymetal
and steelmaker Evraz. Evraz won't be missed in my view but sadly with its
results and determination to pay a 6c dividend it'll be with us for longer than
the former Co's. With a number of companies including in the FTSE Gold Mining
Index, the future doesn't look to chirpy! Apart from the gossip surrounding a
number of companies considering a delisting/relisting elsewhere, including
oilers there's certainly now a risk.
Roger Bade's commentary suggests that Chelyabinsk Zinc
(CHZN), Magnitogorsk (MMK), Norilsk Nickel (MNOD), Phos Agro
(PHOR), Polymetal International (POLY) and Uralkali
(URKA) are obvious ones to follow, although Polymetal is a UK
PLC. Highland Gold (HGM), Nord Gold
(NORD) and Petropavlovsk (POG). Personally, having had my fill
(short) none of them will be missed, a wide berth would save some investors the
pain!
The diamond market appears to be stronger than most thought, Diamond Banks Rein in Lending as Gem Speculation Drives Prices. Will the prices continue into the next sales? Time will tell but perhaps investors would be wise not to consider too much headwind in the sector as a result of "the fuel being reduced."
With the weekend upon us, I shall be working...
Leggie, are you recovered? Atb Fraser
Morning Fraser,
ReplyDeleteThought you may be interested in my thoughts on tech at the moment.
I think Nasdaq is looking a good short over the next year, although currently no position its very tempting.
Loads of stuff out there suggesting a possible bubble.
In no order whatsoever (infact random):
- King Entertainment- fail
- Google price target cut by DB from $1,310.00 to $665.00 (how much?!!): http://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Google+%28GOOG%29+is+Best+in+Class,+Says+Deutsche+Bank+%28Earlier%29/9370993.html
- Asos, many a bear burnt on this but off its high and continuing downwards.
- Citi numbers on "Internet of Things" not exactly exciting: http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2014/04/11/1825322/of-things-and-thingamies-connected/
- General market seems toppy - so perhaps some speculative stuff on Nasdaq will be smashed if this starts coming down
- Mobile phones, Galaxy S5, as far as I can tell, isn't that much better than S4. The jump in tech isn't worth it compared to say S2 to S3 was.
- More competition for things like Netflix. e.g. NowTV, Amazon Prime. (Personally wouldn't want to watch TV on an iPad and most still don't have Internet capable TV).
- Amazon talking about delivering packages by drone, is, whilst a fun idea, total hype I think, which is surely indicative of a frothy market. Reminds me of companies planning to mine the seabed (why not the moon while they are at it?). I hope the farmer near me doesn't shoot my Amazon order out of the sky by mistake.
- "Big Data", whilst important, and useful, isn't that much of a new thing (my view, depsite what marketing types will tell you). People have been crunching "business intel" out of "data" for years. OK, it is a bit easier with certain technologies and faster storage now.
I've been thinking about this for a while now, so was surprised to find out I was late:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/10/us-markets-stocks-idUSBREA360QI20140410
... But its not too late is it? (I imagine Nasdaq was also impacted by the Heartbleed OpenSSL vulnerability press coverage).
Obviously much harder to find a company-specific target, so scattergun (i.e. Nasdaq might be preferable and cheaper in terms of spreads) but in general I cannot help but wonder if there a penny yet to drop.
Interested if this is something you had any thoughts on. No doubt you will have a contrarian viewpoint!
Hope you had a decent trip back.
T/C
D
Good work D, all very logical & costs aren't necessarily cheaper if one goes for a fully 50 fold leveraged product. One would be wise to consider the costs per trade and have sensible rules attached.
ReplyDeleteThe Big Data margins, as others enter the sector (or evolve in sector) will become lower. This also includes those spread betting companies that make massive amounts out of punters. there's only so long till a punter either wises up or learns to make money.
My wife has 'conveniently' opened an a/c with such a company and the service offered despite significant games has been contrary to my thought process. Its amazing how well "she's" done on Ocado and ASOS. It shall be interesting to see how such companies proceed with a consistent run of decent traders opening a/c's.
Would that be market disclosure? As in traders attempting to make monies from the company via trades and shorting the stock based on the impending bad results...would certainly make a good 'fiction' novel or film.
I liked the realism of the post D...makes for some common-sense appraisal and strangely similar to a discuss I had with a fund chap the other day.
TC F
Fraser- Hi- Yes- NASDAQ top slicing has spreading across the Atlantic and some valuations are heading towards the real world, albeit I can see this being limited in its scope and not quite a meltdown. Crazy valuations cant last forever so this event is welcome by most, even us longs. A bit of sector rotation involved, with cheap sectors being lined up for the resultant cash.
ReplyDeleteRe BAO- I think they have been smart to look at the pig iron market rather than just iron ore, given the coal in the area that miners are reburying, and the local carbonate too plus the likely than they can get the titanium out in an efficient manner and the vanadium is valuable too. Power and rail lnks seem to have boxes ticked and the deposit is very mineable imo anyway. Im sure the major steel producers have Tete as a viable project, so the valuation seems too cheap, especially given the completed BFS is due by the end of the year. Im long, by the way :-))
Cheers. The Leggie