Tuesday 8 April 2014

Morning Mumble: Caledonian Mining Corporation (CMCL) & common sense.

Caledonia Declares Second Quarterly Dividend which is exactly what it said it would do...this does not mean it removes the risks presented with the Gold Sales agreement to a Government smelter as one day one assumes they can delay payment in Zimbabwean style whenever they feel like it. The plus is, they're generating cash and making a profit...nearly unheard of on AIM!

Its rather amusing ready the suitors for the worst leveraged gold play Albemarle & Bond's. Its almost like they knew what was happening with the company and they're following the story through to its conclusion. Not one analyst or journalist looked at the structure of the company and realised it should have been the largest value short of 2014. This type of reactive journalist does not bode well for the independent investors or shows that the analysts are willing to take a negative view rather than a mere 'sell.' Perhaps there's an etiquette in "sell means crap" but I doubt it.

Aquarius Platinum's Tender Offer & Proposed Rights Issue makes me think that the knife catchers will be hoping for a recovery in sector. One cannot help but wonder with the previous managements fundraisers "for exapnsion" and to reduce costs, which ironically ended up being mainly CAPEX whether it's good money after bad...

The final thought of the day goes to a delay in IPO's and the coke fuelled frenzy that has happened...IT companies being rerated, one assumes after they've taken their own monies off the table but call me sceptical on that. The Market is becoming very logical but for some reason the market ignores the common-sense. With the Longs on GKP significantly increasing will there be an opportunity to short it again? One assumes the "market" knows more of the terms than the gossip I have heard of 7% coupon and 45M warrants at a £1 being thrown in?

Atb Fraser

5 comments:

  1. Fraser- Hi- Ive been wearing one of my other caps today- Down at Trent Bridge freezing my ar.. off but Notts are winning so it was worth a grimace :-))

    Re GKP- 7% would be a real coup of they pull that off- I would see a rally in the shares if they can persuade (fool?) some mugs into that rate for $250m- perhaps it would be secured against some assets?? I would be surprised at anything less than 10% but perhaps the same guys who have been buying into the IPOs have some cash left to burn... :-))

    Cheers. The Leggie

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  2. Hope you had a good day Leggie, I've been invited to some 20/20 matches by a chap that is intrigued by my shorting! I hope he doesn't want extras!!! haha...I say old bean he'll pick me up in his "heli"

    it has to be 10% with my maths, you can still pick the debt "up cheap" haha...

    Hope you've warmed up and enjoyed the day!!?

    Atb Fraser

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  3. Fraser- Not a helicopter- I wont go in one again after the last one I flew in seemed to be held together with gaffer tape- it was all over the place- rotors, doors, seat- and didn't inspire any confidence in surviving the trip :-) Good luck on your flight.

    Re TRP- noticed they kept their 30% stake in the pivotal drill and placed at 3.5p. They have explained the case v. a 10% farmout fairly well in the RNS and I think they have got it right this time. They also added some further deals to broaden the company's risk profile. I've not got serious money on the table with them now, as they spiked too high for me to ignore recently, but as a red/black bet, with Repsol tech involved, and the likelihood of a nought being added to the back of the share price if they are successful I might buy a few more back in the next 2 weeks if they approach 3.5p (the placing level). Worth a look imo, if you want some helicopter ride type adventure.

    I'm hoping Notts finish off Lancs in a few hours today but will miss FTML again and have added some whisky to my coffee flask too :-)

    Cheers. The Leggie

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    Replies
    1. Yes it was a good placing for those that sold Leggie, the risk reward at 6pence+ didn't meet the likely returns.

      Jake Ball did well on his debut I see (BBC News), depends on a meeting I'm on my way to whether ML will benefit or not (pending on viewpoint) from my company. At 7-1 you should hand in your absence note now!: -)

      Atb Fraser

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    2. Fraser- have a great day today. Sick note on the way to FTML from mum already. "Leggie has frostbite" could be the one I use after yesterdays play. :-)) Cheers. The Leggie

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