There's only so much one can bare in terms of HFT. Yes I am
involved with it for trading Forex mainly the dollar but believe it or not, its
not as profitable as physically trading. Computers are great as long as their
variables are right. Admittedly they can trade faster than humans etc...but
when it comes to common-sense a computer may predict a trend but having used
such software its not for me. I prefer my gut and actions, perhaps I'm a
control freak. Anyway, what's likely to happen is "until such time as
the invesigation means its regulated" we're going to be bombarded
with the negatives how it creates false markets. A market is false when there is only one offering? Did the world miss that offering from my GCSE class of 1987?
One thing I have noticed is the RNS list is the UK Investor Show RNS's. From
a trading perspective I won't be going, I do not need personalities involved
with a sales process/promotion to make decisions. I acknowledge that the Investor Show multifaceted and is also about learning and its a positive to have events within the event comprising for discussions and the like (read as caveat emptor warnings) about the risks and also the dogs of the market. Something most would be prudent to take advantage of. The opportunity to meet companies was something I used to relish, but sadly I'm easy to be sold to face to face, so don't do it often. I'm now a Hermit of Traders, I no longer help lost causes save for Ian, but mainly refrain from meeting company because it means there's an Agenda a) for me to make money b) them to make money or be funded or c) Me not make money and them pay their bills. For myself it's a weekend I'm permitted 1hr stocks coverage as I don't work weekends much and am allowed the Weekender to read. I say allowed it's my own rules! That excludes the shorters meet-ups/booze ups, it is afterall a legitimate event where the negatives can exchange views.
Yes its good to promote your
wares as such, but the last thing I read is often the company presentation.
There's a lot to get to before that and perhaps this is what investors and
funds are missing. Those funds got caught wrong footed on ABM, GKP, TALV...and
shall we say it, Connaught, Mouchel, Serco? G4S...to cover some in the FTSE.
The logical items one needs to cover are being missed by the analysis, which
has got so far away from bottom line and the like that the dross is even
rising. Its an issue of mine, having had to take over my own pension due to the
incompetence of a company whom had been told by me I wanted high risk, but when
put to strict proof would not present the information. Long story, but suffice
to say said company decide it was "in their interests" to pay up
rather than deal with the logical consequences.
So we have a market, with Just Eat et al on forward earnings
that are just stupid (for the moment). The reality is that utilising one platform may be well and
good till companies click on "after exposure" that they will be
known and can go it alone. Really, does one need to know what takeaway is available further than
what they already do? Perhaps in the short-term when you can a half kicked
around pizza from another merchandiser instead of Dominoes. What Dominoes is
acknowledging though is the rapid expansion of it's E-business. Yes this in
part validates Just Eat, Delivery Hero, there's actually more than you realise,
with "onlinepizza" and HungryHorse. My concern is, in the e-cash
society we are becoming is one not getting so far away from the actions that who's
going to tip the delivery guy? Will he start taking contactless payments for
his 5-20% prompt delivery.
The positives are well known, and I concur that Just Eat
will be akin to RightMove.Co.uk and is quite possibly going to be more
successful than rightmove on the basis that there are no sufficiently large
enough takeaway groups to start their own network. Something a lot of Real
Estate and Lettings Agents are concerned with regarding RightMove & Zoopla
they're doing their own networks. Will it work, I suspect not as individuals
now think of their 'search agent' over the estate agent. Likewise, selling your
own property with the web is not that hard either, do parties, save for the
high end $60M residences (Leggie's) specifically use one agency/broker? No most either
search via Zoopla, Rightmove, Primelocation (the very poor sister), and one I
haven't often used is Nuroa.
So Cars have had the "nationalisation of pricing", Property,
Food, Energy, the next step is children's kit. Something where there is a significant lack of a leader. The Savvy minded will be taking Kiddicare off Morrison's hands whilst its cheap and reorganising it. There's a number of changes needed at Morrisons that the current management clearly have missed in promoting brand awareness and 'the everyday essential demand' that is required nowadays. Such as Rightmove, OnlinePizza, Autotrader, webuyanycar.com/any house...There's massive opportunity for Kiddicare, perhaps being with Morrisons has limited that as their e-offering has been notably week. Will cover the news in due course!
Atb Fraser (needing a proof-reader)
Fraser- HFT- yes, it gets the blame every time there are wobbles on the global mkts, I can see the use with forex given the minimal movements that are targeted here, but I wouldn't use HFT, as I like to blame myself and learn from it if I get a trade wrong and it would be so easy to repeat errors time and time again if an algorithm was involved. Forex isn't for me- finding a stock trading at say half or a quarter of fair value and then giving it the necessary time for the mkt to wake up is my main plan.
ReplyDeleteRe KMK- it was always going to be lumpy contracts and so the 50% drop was a buy signal for me- todays RNS will see analysts typexing their notes from last week and that's the way KMK will be- you either trust the tech (I do, having done some research) and the niche mkts it is aimed at or steer clear. KMK will end up as a division of one of the bigger players within a few years imo- it just makes sense on a number of grounds. The UK doesn't really value tech in the same way as the US and whilst some of their PEs are much too high (Amazon over 100 at last view) we prefer to punish ours on a regular basis. We will never have a tech giant in the UK- they either cant transfer the ideas into sales (many examples here- great ideas but no sales skills) or they get gobbled up by the US players.
I wont be around for FTML today, so someone else has a chance to win the NFP award :-))
Cheers. The Leggie