The bulls (Glencore) are no doubt celebrating with the $5.8 billion valuation (GLEN Announcement PDF) . More fool the parties when the 450K tonnes per annum comes on stream. For some strange reason it reminded me of a dire film I watched in Cuba awhile back called La Bamba. So GLEN are going to create some cheer with an alleged return to shareholders...personally with what they need to get into production/improve, the shareholders should come in second place to the cash.
The GLEN Oil deal, albeit positive is towards the top end of premiumds, Glencore to buy Chad oil firm Caracal for 800 million pounds. No one Caracal paid a break fee to end the proposed merger with Canada's TransGlobe Energy Corporation. There won't be much left in the kitty for shareholders, so envisage a near $350M special dividend for GLEN holders to keep them happy (which they need).
So yesterday, I was sat down working out the metrics of the Las Bambas deal and got side tracked with a trip to a theme park, so never ended it. Thankfully my time was prudently spent and lo and behold, this morning, Mines Online came forward with the metrics and comparisons in an email today. It's significant ahead of large scale mining prices, just look at what Rio achieved with Palabora!
Leggie, you mention Providence Resources and the speculation about a Farm In/Out deal, there's been rumblings for some time of a very "positive" news item coming forward, perhaps even with the interested parties acquisition of Lansdowne Oil & Gas Plc? Who knows, but time will tell! It would appear the chatter in the market is very similar to yours as well Leggie! All betting on the big buxs:-)
EMED is being hammered at the moment and I suspect the company and advisors have missed the point for why. The news items that they anticipated as drivers were immaterial to the share price. The company caused this with their willingness to place at lower prices etc...Yes, as a trader, its something I look for, in terms of the psychology in the stock. Remember you have to "buy" to short and sell to long...I hope that makes sense. There is no other reason for this, the placees now being locked in with the market and buyers unwilling to take stock at much of a premium to the placing. One could argue the news meant the market has no faith now in the risks of placings...a lesson for many a company.
Its nice to see Ocado coming to a real 'value' in the market and I suspect will be my best trade of 2014 and we're only 4 months in. ASC (ASOS) being pushed as value by every man and his dog. Really in a risk off (myopic) view, it's not likely to have a staggering run based on fundamentals.
I need to refresh my views on Rio Tinto delivery of "strong first quarter
production", One assumes they knew the comparison to the previous
quarter would not look good? Nor will it look that good for Kenmare
as Titanium dioxide feedstock had softer market demand. They don't wish to
rebuild one of their furnaces until the market improves. If
tenders have been completed for the Rio Tinto Fer et Titane (RTFT) furnaces, one hopes
the companies involved have other works on and may have to revisit their pricing
as it'll be some time away as they're waiting for an improvement in the market. Albeit Anglo Pacific can sit there happy in the knowledge there was nothing unscheduled in the rainfall etc...
A thought for companies...one would be wise not to utilise the term "pleased to draw down funds" (Tertiary Minerals RNS).
Atb Fraser
Fraser- Thx for the PVR comment- LOGP with 20% of Barryroe could well be the correct play here as their mkt cap is £26m so that could be benchmark for Barryroe to be valued at around £200m, with LOGP being knocked out for around 30p. Then again SEA own 21.5% of LOGP so perhaps they are the correct play.... who owns SEA... this could go on and on :-)))
ReplyDeleteRe EMED- Some talk of the final finance terms re the capex needed here so that appears to have also spooked the mkt. I agree that the permits were in the price already so they weren't a catalyst for a share price push. Why else would it be valued at over £100m? Im not sure if the obvious candidates for a copper project are as keen on expanding in this area as they were say 3 or 6 months ago. The Chinese holder should keep the price over 7p - in the meantime Im in for the production stage as my figures look quite cash generative even after the cu drop.
Re Tertiary Mins- shall be start a campaign for the word "pleased" to be banned from RNSs. No doubt someone will use it to announce the appointment of liquidators the way things are going :-)) Perhaps "shamed" is the word Tertiary should have been made to use.
Cheers. The Leggie