Saturday, 26 April 2014

Morning Mumble: Extraordinarily suspicious...Par Deux The LGO Funding

Its a rarity for me to be able to research and plan on Saturdays , however gin does improve this. My daughter is currently running around singing "dum dum dum deee blum blum dum dum dub dub dub." Whether she means me or not is another matter! 

When looking at Leni Oil & Gas (LGO) it was with no surprise whatsoever that a placing was afoot and lo and behold, Friday at 18:19GMT what came out. The RNS announcing the Funding and New Trinidad producing fields review. Now I know there's many ways to skin a cat, but shareholders have finally paid for the legal action via dilution, fund raising or whatever you want to call it. Of course it could be viewed:

"These funds will be used to assess a number of potentially attractive producing oil fields in Trinidad, which have recently been made available to the Company, and to ensure sufficient working capital is available as we embark on the next expansion phase at Goudron. LGO intends to spud the first of 30 new development wells on the Goudron Field in Trinidad in the next few days."

Neil Ritson goes on to state..."As we embark on the largest development drilling campaign in the Company's history management are keen to ensure that the Company is well funded, and the right balance is struck with existing short term borrowing arrangements."

So LGO had costs likely to be nearer £2M for the legal action and I am being conservative there. So with a further £1.3M post expenses (my estimates), £900K of that will be shortly on its way to Mediterranean Oil & Gas. MOG your cheque will be shortly in the post, assuming there are not likely to be damages in addition to the costs. 

LGO Shareholders should take note, yes I'm long, but this has cost every shareholder a minimum of 10% of the market capitalisation in cash terms based on my estimates. The question is, whether it should have been brought in the first place. This will come to light, but its noted that certain parties have no interest in "making public the action" for reasons, it would appear only they know. So in reality the likely upside for shareholders was far outweighed by the downside...

This RNS should have in my opinion been entitled "placing to pay for [failed] legal action." In essence, had LGO not brought the case, the items this is "now going to pay for would have been funded? Perhaps someone has a different view? The timing of the RNS is duly noted...

Apologies, it's something of a small interest financially for me, but a major interest in terms of drama! So sorry for wasting the 3 mins it took you to read this...

Its quite surprising that my Partnership (PA.) and Just Retirement Group (JRG) have been so profitable. The recovery is already in progress and for those knife catchers reduction would be wise. Apols for not responding to an email D Gin took priority. 

Have a good weekend, Atb Fraser

2 comments:

  1. Spotted you in JRG & PA some good coverage immediately after the news from you F. Was good to catch up in London been awhile. PVR.L news due soon!??? Cheers KP

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  2. Fraser- Re LGO- Nice spot re that sneaky late RNS- I not at all sure how the statement above fits with their 3/4/14 RNS, as below-

    "The potential cost liability (re the legals) had already been provided for by the Company in its cash flow forecasts and will not have any material impact on LGO's ongoing oil production programs in either Trinidad or Spain. The Company's oil operations are profitable and LGO has access, as previously announced, to the necessary working capital for the commencement the 30 well development program planned for its 100% owned Goudron Field in Trinidad".

    One day they say they have cash to fund ops, and then they need cash to fund ops- one of these statements was at best misleading. Im not long or short here but I agree that the £1.4m placing should have probably been honestly described as being to cover the legal costs of the MOG pursuit, its clear that this is the gap they are trying to fill in now. They would have gained more respect by being brutally honest here imo.

    Ive been caught up in the Nautilus Minerals developments re the new agreement with PNG, which is both positive from a cashflow point of view and also from a legal standpoint, given the vocal local nimbies who have an interest in trying to block the Solwara development. I would however not count on the 31/7/14 deadline being met by PNG to come up with the extra $113m- that's the crucial point for me (Im long and with NUS long is long :-)))

    Cheers. The Leggie

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