Friday, 24 January 2014

Victoria Oil & Gas (LSE: VOG) & a small discussion on Rurelec...


Now, its positive for shareholders that some change in the attitude of all parties concerned is being evidenced/displayed. Why was this not put forward as a resolution by VOG in the first place? Perhaps it was, but it was clear in their RNS that this was absent at the time, so if they had put this as an offer it should have been notified within the RNS as it was material to the Company. 

Its my view there is some contempt being shown for shareholders and who that is is difficult to identify but I am beginning to wonder if it's more than one party. What there is in my view is a need for a change, its clear that the current parties are limited with a fractured relationship and not forgetting their RNS which showed they had some culpability when they released the RNS. 

Now if I had a share price performance similar to this, would I be thinking its time to let someone else move the company forward? I would like to know how much the International Arbitration cost VOG seeing as only a limited amount of monies were/are recoverable due to culpability. 

I shall maintain my holding, not for the benefits of any of the management as I class them as a risk in the company and to my profits, but for the assets which surely cannot be impacted further.

Now what would make me laugh about this RNS from Tower Resources Operational Update and Issue of Equity. Answers...

Finally Rurelec. It was pleasing to see parties take some profit and the price consolidate in the process yesterday. For the message relating to "why the %&%* would I be selling now unless I know something he/she doesn't." My answer is simple and perhaps difficult for those that would struggle to be an amoeba at scrabble. I was derisking a position as I had been acquiring the stock over a significant period of time, I would be stupid not to take/close positions that made me a profit. Did I sell all? No, but irrespective of what happens next I will have made a healthy profit. 

6 comments:

  1. Fraser- TRP answer- the spud date is moving back again- 18/4 now, not the latest promise of before the end of March 2014. It was Feb in the middle of last year, if my memory still operates. Plus (for a bonus point :-)) the number of shares is flying now, in a confetti type manner. I guess they would state that cash preservation is the no 1 priority at present, but you would have thought that the well design would have been agreed months ago. Plus they are using the word "pleased" when "sorry" would probably be more appropriate- that does wind me up.

    Re RUR- who are these punters who think they can identify the top and sell everything at the very top of the market- have they ever heard of top slicing- perhaps you cant top slice halfway though a goat race :-))

    Re VOG- good to see some limited cooperation but I too have concerns re the mgmt. and there need to get the operational side delivered to bring back some confidence in their abilities.

    Cheers. The Leggie

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  2. Howdy Leggie (too many Americans recently), The liquidity issue was also of concern for me re: Tower Resources. I am not disputing that they may have 'been advised of this by people' however I know of two individuals that were able to purchase and sell significant amounts of stock without much trouble at all. What Tower have done in essence it put a hat on any share price movements and that is my reasoning to look to start shorting. I have to wait for a few other 'signals' but its now on my list.

    Off topic, I ran into a chap whom was long ABM (Albermarle & Bond) and was discussing that he "should have listened to FJP73 on Markets Live whom did an excellent analysis of the company in three paragraphs." When he realised that I was the same person he didn't look too pleased...alas that the market. More importantly, having got over the issue, he's agreed to do some oil analysis here whilst he's on 'garden' leave. All being well, after a few issues I hope he can start end of February, but no promises yet as I suspect his living comes first! More importantly I wish him a speedy recovery!!

    Back to the markets, I wonder if the FTSE can maintain its momentum or level due to earnings being impacted. This to me suggests there will be a move from markets (equity) to assets in the mid-term. Thanks to Markets Live, I have been able to review the UBS Macro Problems Micro Solutions and am coming up with a strategy based on my thoughts and their opinion, I'll cover in a separate blog creation so people may appraise it.

    VOG I sold some this morning and am now capital free, I shall endeavour to review in due course.

    Atb Fraser

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  3. Fraser- Yes- the TRP farmout is vital for them to fund their part of the Namibia drill and its clear that their known cash shortage wont help their bargaining position, despite the above average prospects for the well in question. I sold 1/4 at 4.07p and 1/4 at 4.65p but my average was below 1.5p so I will probably wait until farmout news and spud before looking again.

    These macro calls are interesting at present, as we have UK, Europe and the US growing so some degree and China showing various signs of weakness, albeit the data from China is massaged, as we all know. They have however announced plans to double the size of their high speed rail network in 2014, spending £60bn in the process-
    http://news.sky.com/story/1194709/china-high-speed-rail-network-to-be-doubled

    Im not sure how much iron ore and other metals will be needed here, or if this is stockpiled or built into current prices, but it looks significant to me.

    I could be late for FTML as Englands men may be winning a cricket game :-))


    Cheers for now. The Leggie

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  4. As is always the case, a profit is only a profit when its been banked so RE:RUR and banking, , its always a good call. People often forget that their are holders in stocks long before they arrive in them, but often get abit "muddled" when sales start to go through.

    I still don't understand the need for today's slight issue of equity. other than RUR have a fondness for issuing 2million shares every 6 weeks for cash flow purposes.

    On a longer picture, should it take months for RUR to receive any level of compensation from Bolivia, then are we going to drip feed 2mill shares at a time for working capital purposes as and when required !

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  5. Spac3y, I was surprised by the Issue of Equity Yesterday under the guise of "unbudgeted expenditure." I wrote to the company to that affect as well yesterday and do not envisage a response this side of the award.

    From my analysis the company had near £1.5M in cash based on their results and approximate revenues based on the June 2013 Interim A/c's. http://www.investegate.co.uk/rurelec-plc--rur-/rns/interim-results/201309270700190587P/

    What I have issue with is the cash flow for the company cannot be that tight for cash that there was an urgency for £265K. This after all, in terms of the award is nominal.

    Having had time yesterday to phone the NOMAD, whom seemed to think this did not fall under his responsibility. I put it to him, that the statement specifically covered "a NOMAD's duty either under Rule 11 & 17 in regarding to Financial Position.”

    Either way, I found it disappointing that despite assurances otherwise there would be no further issue of shares, 'another' excuse was found.Specifically, the company is not in my view in such desperation for £265K that there was no other choice but to issue yet more equity below NAV (yet again).

    There is no need for the issue of any equity due to the revenues coming in and the financing that will be available for plants. However time will tell.

    Atb Fraser

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  6. That`s what got me Fraser.

    I could have understood the need for a couple of mill to tide them over awaiting award and then when funds arise...but £265K !!
    Hell it probably cost them £20K to raise that with all the paperwork so I guess Ill never know why they did that.

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