When I'm told about a stock, I go away and look for the negatives. I am totally negative in terms of trades now, not for short or long, but I find my mindset works better for my trades. I've been reviewing Pathfinder Minerals (LSE: PFP) with thanks to Pathfinder Minerals – a tale of intrigue BY Doc Holiday.
The judgement of Pathfinder Minerals obtained via Doc Holiday's article: Pathfinder Minerals Plc Judgement 19th October 2012 and the appeal of Pathfinder Minerals Plc Court of Appeal Document (via Pathfinder Minerals) 21st April 2013 RNS'd 13th May 2013).
I'm not going to rewrite what's been well written by others on this, what hasn't been discussed at any level is the what has one of two likely outcomes in my view:
1) Pathfinder are successful in getting their licenses back, succinctly covered in the background summary by Pathfinder Minerals then there should be an uplift in the value.
2) In the unlikely event the proceedings are not honoured within the Mozambique Judicial System then in essence Pathfinder will have unlawfully had their assets expropriated with the assistance of the Mozambique’s Ministry of Mineral Resources. This will have breached their rights under the Foreign Direct Investments Bilateral Trade Agreement (2004 for Mozambique) and as such be liable for any compensation as a result of their actions in failing to protect the investment of the UK investor. This is covered by Bilateral Investment Treaties (BITS): The Case of Mozambique
The legal document here: Agreement between the Government of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the Government of the Republic of Mozambique for the Promotion & Protection of Investments
As such, I have been taken positions in PFP; it shall be interesting to see developments, at a very different stage to others, and different risk stages as well.
Atb Fraser
Atb Fraser
Fraser
ReplyDeleteNice to see you cover this one here- for anyone interested, PFP have a tearsheet in pdf form available if you click here at the end of the Welcome paragraph that can get people up to speed re PFPs history and current position. They paid £35m for IMM in 12/10 and had an assessment of the NPV of the two deposits carried out in 2011 at $529m, since which time the price of most of the minerals has increased. The entire company is valued at circa £5m, including todays 25% hike, and they have circa £2.5m in cash to pursue the reinstatement of their assets, which is their sole purpose at present. To make matters more interesting, the two individuals they are in main pursuit of own 19.1% of PFP !! I guess they don't attend board meetings at present :-))
Their major assets at present are the English High Court ruling and appeal rejection, which were as clear and frank as Ive seen for some time and they have had advice that they should be enforceable in Mozambique, but time will be the major negative here. In the meantime the General has his own amusing blog (under Pathfinder Minerals Blog, believe it or not) which has its own unique angle.
Im long PFP as I feel the risk/reward ratio is good and I do like to see good triumph over evil. Im happy to sit this out in the meantime. A former director , who had 80m or more shares became a forced seller, which has seen the share price drop over the last year or so, but he went below 3% (circa 30m) a couple of months ago and I think he could be out now.
Cheers. The Leggie
Fraser et al
ReplyDeleteNice interview with Nick Clarke (CAML) published today, if you are interested-
http://minesite.com/news/central-asia-metals-finds-favour-with-strong-production-and-big-payouts-to-shareholders
plus some EMED news in the morning, according to some untranslatable Spanish report :-)).
Lets see- plenty of false dawns there.
Cheers. The Leggie
Leggie thanks for the link. I've held Central Asia Metals plc (CAML) for some time Leggie, as you no doubt know. What more do investors want?!?!?!?!?!
ReplyDeleteEMED Mining was allegedly last Friday and the one before, as soon as the stock has moved I won't be holding EMED for long out of principle for the placing. It would be ironic if one involved in the placing had to 'sell' i.e. forced seller.
For my the diversity has grown!
Atb Fraser (with Gin in readiness for a Jolly tomorrow).
Fraser thanks for putting PFP up and commenting on your source of information. Often people pretend to be involved by their own dd. I had wondered who the buyer was, is it you? Ian? and others? Whatever your stake thanks for adding another string to the PFP bow I hadn't even thought of. thanks for all the views Gordon.
ReplyDeleteHi Gordon, I cannot be blamed for the share price rise. I will not post until I've acquired a position in a stock. Not because I'm a 'big' boy merely I want to speak/discuss specifics rather than hypothetical. Its not likely my trades will move a stock that much...maybe Ian! haha. Atb Fraser
ReplyDeleteFraser,Ian and all
ReplyDeleteJust found this on the Calunius site- they are funding the OXS litigation arrangements (with Darwin in too)- it mentions OXS twice in the Q&A section in a fairly positive manner, imo, in their efforts to draw in new business.
http://www.calunius.com/faqs.aspx
Cheers. The Leggie
Howdy Leggie (In an American Mood after yesterdays Jolly),
ReplyDeleteThe Calunius was the reason I realised the value was better than most analysts would have you believe. Akin to No Win No Fee, but there's a difference in this, in terms of their success rate. Which I will leave people to speculate over :-)!
Atb Fraser