Good Morning - Thanks for the updates & views on the stocks Fraser - started well with Supermarkets down, STAN hit & Dialight being valued properly. Happy New Year to everyone. What's suggested in ROI is the Govt are making allowances for Bonds/Financing & transparency in the money mkts only.
Contrarian to Fraser, my is the view that ROI wont settle with CHL. They will fight it all the way so the Govt dont lose any face. They can claim like the Malaysia's prime minister it's a conspiracy to spark an Asian Crisis or disable their economies. CHL is an only longterm result there will be no short-term settlement & Indonesia will delay as much possible. Cheers Ian
Malaysia media claims Jewish plot after rally Associated Press.
Ian
ReplyDeleteI think you are right to assume we are all in for the long haul with CHL- this is a very high profile case for the ROI govt and they would love to be seen to win in some form or other. They could do this in a number of ways, via the 2 cases (jurisdiction (result in coming weeks) and hopefully the follow on arb case- 2015/6?) but it would probably be sensible of them to make a lowball offer in the next 3/6 months if the jurisdiction case is dismissed and their legals will no doubt put the case for this forward.
In the meantime they know that CHL need more funding, so time is a weapon they can use to their benefit.
I for one have no plans to spend the settlement monies here in the next few years, and I trust the CHL board to look after our interests in the meantime
Cheers. The Leggie
Leggie and Ian, I don't think the financial weapon is an issue for Churchill (LSE: CHL). With Indonesians supporting the company as well, I dare say there's some news due soon that will clarify the funding situation of Churchill.
ReplyDeleteIan and I discussed the CHL element with a few lawyers awhile back; yes we have friends haha! This was not for advice purposes but merely topical discussion over quite a few beers and testing out the relevance. They're from well-known International Arbitration firms (not connected with CHL). We all concluded, save for information that is unknown (large risk in any Investment) and a large settlement of say 50% of the amount claimed there is no real benefit in CHL settling early. For Indonesia, they surely know the outcome. Remember knowing the outcome changes the mind-set, and likewise they have a duty to protect their Indonesian Public Purse so may be more motivated that Ian believes.
From a shareholder perspective, I'd like to see CHL go the distance because then 'ultimate' clarity of value is achieved rather than speculative albeit I wouldn't say no to some of the premiums that could be obtained even by a partial settlement.
So, I'll hop off the fence and go with jurisdiction not being an issue the test is met in my view; remember Jurisdiction is not the same as determining the ‘end result of the case’; positive or negatively. It's to clarify the legalities of the forum for arbitration for which Indonesia elected/consented to that forum. Albeit, once that issue is resolved, assuming the facts in the public domain are correct CHL "surely" can't lose.
I do not see how Indonesia can argue that they protected the rights of the Foreign Direct Investor (FDI) irrespective of the disagreements in the partnership etc. How they protected those assets of the FDI and likewise, how Indonesia afforded the FDI protection from what appears to be a fraudulent act in the removal of the license etc…Time will tell.
Have a good weekend! Atb Fraser
Fraser
ReplyDeleteYes- I agree that the jurisdiction case seemed at the time to only have only one outcome-- rejection but deferment of the actual arb case. Lets hope we are all right on this point, but it appears fairly simple.
Im in no hurry at all (which is the first requirement of these intl arb cases, it seems) so like you I would prefer to see the full process get played out rather than CHL take a lowball offer shortly. I have no sympathy for the ROI gov rep who seems surprised that ROI don't win these arb cases- perhaps it has led to them pulling back powers from their regional governors fiefdoms over the last few years.
If Ian is still in BLZ, he may be able to follow the Microsoft case due on 6/2/14 via the following website. The Apple case is due in June too. It appears that these cases are v common and often settled just before they come to court. Fingers crossed as Im long (no prizes for guessing that one :-)). I was v happy that the attempted Israeli takeover failed, for lots of reasons.
http://dockets.justia.com/docket/california/candce/3:2012cv05422/260074
Cheers for now- have a super weekend guys. The Leggie
fraser I bought VOG based on your discussion thanks & up 30% in a day. Keep it up your coverage on ML is unique. Been trading your tips for some time and the tipsters could learn a lot its hard to give live commentary on such a variety of stocks and you are consistent. I know it comes with a double edged sword that hurts when you get it wrong. thanks all the same. you beat me in a year just in 8 weeks.
ReplyDeleteIan could you give me some words of wisdom on emblaze
cheers Dan
p.s. if you need a developer for your site i'll do it for free.