For those that are ML contributors / readers you'll note the Aussie Dollar has hit my target for the short-term of £1:$1.91. I have no indicators to take a further position and closed all trades on the GBP. Mining wise this will impact on the bottom line of most exporters so look for a weakening in the revenues forecasts (RIO).
The GBPAUD has had some significant run of late, appreciating near 13% in 6 months. I have been trading GBPAUD for a significant amount of time its the only FX I really understand, the others are too big in terms of variables for my small mind.
What it does suggest to me though is the spike is Gold in Asia over night and the relative weakness in America means that Gold may have sufficient ingredients for a directional play for a few months. I have not taken a position as of yet because I'm learning the correlation, but its starting to look more bearish in the short-term, perhaps $1150?
Personally I would be looking to India for a directional play, as currently the import restrictions and smuggling have assisted those short on the precious metal in banking significant gains. For coverage and thought, start here: Sonia Gandhi seeks easing of gold curbs (Reuters 23 January 2014). Its not likely to have a massive impact but in the short after such news I would expect Gold demand to go up.
My question for the weekend is, "when will New World Resources hit my short target price of 20 pence." The closest comment may get a few empty bottle of Gin!
Atb Fraser
Fraser- whats the deal with NWR- their 2021 debt is trading at around 15c to the Euro, apparently yielding 60%, they have almost E1Bn in debt instruments and and they may default on the E100m credit line on 7/2/14, yet the shares value the company at £148m at 56p. Surely the debt holders will want to wipe out the shareholders if the only option is a debt/equity swap, or could Bakala step in and bail the whole thing out. Your 20p could be about right here, if he doesn't throw his hat in the ring fairly soon and why should he. What does default do to the shares? Oh dear, oh dear....
ReplyDeleteCheers. The Leggie.
I've been looking at your GBP/AUD trades. Looks like it is directly linked to commodities and 1 for me to learn. I sold New World when I read your comments on ML in Jan 13 when you said you had gone short. Nice work your statements about profit and debt showed I was wrong. My broker said you were stating crap but you saved me a few bob. Are you going to cover your shorts as well? Its my one short ive ever done.
ReplyDeleteHi Leggie/Jim - it was something that I wanted to long but F was busy looking negatively at it - I accused him of as much. Shocking that he likes the negative. Congrats F. hoping not to speak out of line but F mentioned the default on debt would present a buying opportunity in debt leggie. lets see.Cheers Ianh
ReplyDeleteIan
ReplyDeleteThanks- yes, he does like the dark side more than Darth Vader :-)) They have 2 loan notes so I will pop them on my watchlist, but I still cant see why the shares are supported at current levels given the overall picture and my view of the prospects here. Perhaps Im suffering from too much exposure to Fraser :-))
Are you still holding BLZ? I cant any reason why not to, given the cash position and cases coming up, so I topped up last week and am holding tight for the next instalment. Heaven knows who the board are now and what they intend next, but surely they are looking to make money as well as us.
Cheers. The Leggie.
Cheers. The Leggie
Just read F's text about my password - will let F explain whats going on with NWR from what I make of it you will see a unique deal there -
ReplyDeleteBLZ - is part of a trade plan at the moment so can't comment - down to F to explain that. allegedly MSft have offered a settlement - thats gossip though.
One of F's cheeky shorts was IOF - his darth vader impression is comedy@best. you based Notss Leggie? if so a few of us are meeting up in july welcome to come. cheers ianh
Ian
ReplyDeleteYes- I live in West Bridgford- I play cricket on Saturdays but that apart I would love to come, if commitments permit- just let me know when and where and I will try and plan around it. I wouldn't be surprised if both of the BLZ cases are settled pre trial as these patent pursuits have a high percentage that end up that way. Its surprising how many patent cases take place in the US- just a cost of running a successful tech co by the look of it.
Cheers. The Leggie.