Showing posts with label PGM. Show all posts
Showing posts with label PGM. Show all posts

Monday, 20 July 2015

Morning Mumble: China + Gold...AAL's / JSE: AMS hand count of PGM's. Rambler's talking of expansion! + RUR's default.

Good Morning, Forgot to press publish this morning, Good Afternoon,

It’s hard to start this morning due to there being so much to cover and little time. 

Everything is going on in China, on the stock market, in the economy and the slowdown in development (read as reducing investment). How's that for economic analysis?! In essence there is no fiscal policy that will not be considered by China to maintain the economy.  

The long fated transfer of wealth between Government and citizen/comrade has now stalled, including the Chinese people's investment in mainland China generally. With monetary outflows from China increasing both directly and via the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, the Government is left having to fill the void/gaping hole. Orders are on the increase from mainland China to the Honk Kong (Southbound), where the mature market is allegedly benefiting from greater disclosure and transparency. 

With China catching a cold, those Asian trading partners (south-south trade) are under pressure. What this means for those recently listed, including Alibaba (NYSE: BABA), is yet to be fully determined. BABA will not be exempt from reduced ordering and trade efficiencies that are put in place (read as reduced wastage).  Also likely to have a knock on for Standard Chartered (STAN), whose capital requirement rumours are being raised again, after today's new management changes. How much does STAN need? Although more recently STAN have developed a conservative approach to lending.

Often when looking at the realistic view of China, people mistake negativity or a lack of positives as being the end of the world, rather than resetting expectations. Some brokers, whom were so bullish when attending Camp AV last year (2014) are now reassessing their position on China. One would be wise to consider the notes from Aviate et al (China once upon a time bull's), and look how it’s turned out in 13 short months in comparison to the bullish predictions. 

The drop in construction both residential and commercial, has serious implications for the Chinese economy, throughout the entire supply chain both materials and labour. Factories’ own inventory levels are rising, not helped by lower gate prices. Steel mills producing above and beyond demand but "committed" to certain higher cost Government obligations or funding gets withdrawn. 

Precious Metals are all under pressure (EMC: Gold the “bears” will have this market for longer), the falls in Asia one suspects are a result of a certain trader cashing in their chips. 

Gold: $1116/oz (had been as low as $1080/oz. as knife catchers entered the market). 
Silver: $14.80/oz (had been as low as $14.55/oz.)
Platinum: $980/oz. (had been as low as $970/oz.)
Palladium: $605/oz (previously touched $600/oz.)
Copper: $2.4650/lb 

China is giving an appearance of confidence, with their stock market measures attempting to entice the public to buy into the story. Having committed near $200b of funds in a month or so to margin/equity, its merely propped up the fall. Whilst holding fire on a further $275B worth of equity rescue, (Bloomberg: China Securities Finance Corp ($483B) funding to imply support.

China's latest vote was to release its gold figures. Not only did this conveniently happen on Friday with near 1,658 metric tons of gold under the security of PBoC (remember that phrase it may be important). We'll ignore why China hasn't released any gold figures for near 5 years, and leave that for the conspiracy theorists that make little money. What is important though is the disclosure for the purpose of the IMF (International Monetary Fund) SDR (Special Drawing Rights) for the Yuan. Expect a revision upwards of Gold holdings in due course from China. 

In entire contradiction, the crash in Gold. Another Fund having a coup on the Shanghai Gold Exchange catching most off guard. Whether the seller had other obligations that prompted the sale, is immaterial to the action of resetting the pricing a la Copper (14th January 2015), in addition to shorting Gold. Selling 160K ounces is not to be sniffed at, especially during such quiet trade and limited volumes. What are the implications for CitiGroup who’s trading in precious metals has near quintupled in 4 short months with around $45-50B exposure.

On to the market, Anglo American Platinum Earnings Reconciliation by Anglo American, is almost laughable. It raises significant questions over how Anglo Plat's recognising its inventory. After, a physical count of in-process metals (in the ordinary course of business) resulted in the Company increasing its estimate of the quantity of inventory by an additional c.130koz of platinum and 75koz of palladium. Source: Anglo American Platinum Interim Report Anglo Platinum (JSE: AMS). AMS already down 4% from opening. 

From Anglo Plats ...continues with the repositioning to create a high quality asset portfolio, with low cost and high margin production, low safety risk and high mechanisation potential. The assets that do not form part of the retained portfolio are part of the disposal program. 

If anyone is minded, could they pleased identify the "high quality assets" to save significant investigation time. At current prices, the read across to all the producers with platinum at $980/oz. isn't looking great, Lonmin must have near 6 months before the desperation of cash comes to the fore, if it hasn't already. 

Rambler Metals and Mining (RMM) Pre-feasibility Study has a number of assumption in it, although better than some! RMM, Average copper price of USD $2.79 per pound, gold price of USD $1,100 per ounce and silver of USD $15.54 per ounce. Long term pricing of USD $2.79 per pound, $1075 per ounce and $15.50 per ounce for copper, gold and silver respectively. 

RMM hopes to fund most of it from bulk mining Footwall Zone (LFZ), which is allegedly self-funding from current operations (Circa $66M). Even so, there's a capital short-fall of near $9M and assessing possible debt fundraising has been initiated. The funding plan does not make economic sense on the 5 year plan. With more risks created by the self-funding rate over 5 years. Debt-financing alone does not stack up, especially in the current environment so will there be a % of equity dilution/warrants or associated kickers to entice the backers. 

Having not covered RMM since EMC: RMM 9th December 2014. With the denial contingent still suggesting things can get better. One has to question how much of the cashflow supports financing at current prices. This is likely to be RMM's last chance, in the absence of a rebound in RMM's produced commodities, there's a requirement for cash for this expansion. With a modest improvement in grades more recently, RMM are likely to be able to "sell the story." Any purchases would only be high risk speculation in the current market.

More news for Rurelec (RUR) today that was missing two little words in the title, "loan default." RUR announce the appointment of directors, but update on the default that has taken place. Expect a roller-coaster of a ride for anyone still holding! 

Atb Fraser

Monday, 13 July 2015

Morning Mumble: China, Puerto Rico Chinese Housing desperations and PGM producers (LMI), has someone lost the plot.

Good Evening,

It would appear that the only issues relate to Greece at the moment rather than the liquidity crisis occurring in China and the likes of Puerto Rico defaulting (curve ball alert, more coming on this in due course). A dramatic statement, but one only has to look at the commodity woes of Dr Copper and his juniors to understand the yoyo of liquidity. On the one hand you have physically purchasers “taking opportunity”, and the rest of the market is a risk off environment. Even the hedge funds are wary of (at the moment). Nickel a prime example...

China has all but banned the selling of stocks, cancelled the borrow on what little was left and also hovered over those with a decent sense of market actions, to threaten them to change and/or stop trading.

Whilst away, it’s been interesting to grasp a sense of understanding on the Asian markets as a whole. A plus being there’s limited ability to check the western news flow, without some neanderthal type market assessment. Aslthough China are “protecting their market” (shall we call it protecting confidence), the wider population not only disbelieve the Chinese Government statements, but more so, are massively wary of the outcome. Expect news on a few arrests in due course. 

Housing is at risk on a number of levels more recently, where there’s the threat of action by developers on potential customers pulling out of deals. Quite how, even in Chinese terms, one is legally obliged to buy in the absence of a contract is anyone’s guess. It would appear “by threatening it” there’s some financial benefit for those developers. More on this later, perhaps when at home! Accessing liquidity cash, akin to "fitting the BP compensation criteria, appears to be the staple diet of the month. 

On AIM, we had Anglo Asian Mining (AAZ) coming out with a productionupdate. One would be wise to wait until the next set of results before getting carried away. Agitation leaching recoveries saved the decline in grades, one hopes they can maintain this.

Copper production came in a corker at 236 tonnes, compared to 182/t (admittedly a poor comparison). The reagent costs should still be coming down in price, but disappointingly there’s no guidance on costs, yet again.

Although net debt was reduced, its not wise to carry inventory and debt. With the director lending a small chunk ($4M) to continue ops more recently, it’s a positive that cashflow is appearing to be well managed. With the woes of commodities and the cashflow management needing a dictator type management style. EMC:AAZ potential cash call looks like it will either be a slow journey whilst paying down debt or today’s news is the positive before the dump.

It was interesting to listen to a trader whom considers Lonmin a screaming buy now. It’s not Friday, it’s not gin o'clock and more so, one hopes he has a better understanding than the rest of South Africa. This doesn't mean it’s not a bad idea, its just significantly high risk.

Precious group metal (PGM) producers are right on the wire at the moment, if volumes and demand do not pick up soon, expect a low price for longer across the board. Not necessarily the best thing for Lonmin, whom lets face it, had they consider other avenues for their marketing and trading options, could have turned themselves into a force to be reckoned with. 

Hindsight is a wonderful thing, alas for Lonmin, one wouldn't like to be in their shoes, especially in light of their OPEX CAPEX cost when considering Platinum/Palladium. For the first time in a while my email box contains some sensible suggestions about the PGM market, congrats pros!

On Exillions, limited time, but perhaps the company would like to make a few announcements about "holdings in company." Unless of course the rules only apply to mortals! 

Atb Fraser

Friday, 15 May 2015

Morning Mumble: LMI (Lonmin), PGM's via GFMS, Serabi Gold, Tribal Group + Otto and Capital Drilling!

Good Morning,

The share price of Lonmin (LMI) is rather telling that Glencore (GLEN) shareholders do/did not value or rate LMI. We shall keep this simple, in the absence of an improving outlook, reduced costs and CAPEX and OPEX clarity LMI is on a path of dilution (rights issue). With GLEN now ex-dividend as of yesterday, LMI is being punished, opps the correct term is "managed sales."

Perhaps the value of LMI for some funds will be ignored and held until an improvement or corporate action involving the Republic of South Africa (RSA) Government. The thought for the day goes to those analysts thinking the furnaces have "exceptional or one off costs", that shouldn't be factored into longer-term workings. One assumes they're new to the chrome issues within the PGM industry?!?!?!

LMI will not be assisted by GFMS annual survey is out on the poor man's Reuters Eikon that platinum has the potential to test $1K/oz. It’s not beyond the realms of possibility, with LMI needing to "dump" rather than manage the sale of near 200K with a growing differential between supply and demand. 

With the improvements and an expanding market in recycling  of catalysts, limited growth and even with a shortfall in supply PGM's failed to respond. One could be minded to think the speculators are locked in to Jo'burg ETF's at a loss so are unwilling to apply further capital, same for the Chinese and hedgies focusing on bottlenecking.  SO GFMS put the range to $1K/oz. to $1290/oz. 

Someone popped a BRR media discussion on Serabi Gold (SRB) into my box this morning on the back of the Unaudited Financial Results for the First Quarter 2015. SRB's suggestion there's the potential for M&A in the sector are of concern. SRB are another company that should focus on their current assets, get their start-up at Palito running efficiently and prove up their resources, rather than spinning a plate they can ill-afford to diversify on.

There is little margin on the balance sheet for M&A, save for the issue of confetti. Currently the Brazilian Real (BRL) is favouring their cost base in reporting terms, and with the downgrades in banks, the issues in the economy is unlikely to change. The USD/BRL of 1:3 should perhaps be considered the key support/potential floor. 

With the last placing just over a year ago, the FX losses kitchen sinked and ramp up progressing well, SRB is now looking more positive than the past 4 years. A producer (at a profit) and potential to return monies to shareholders over the longer-term, SRB should not be ignored. Likewise their liabilities, if there was a hiccup in their plans or a significant movement in BRL terms could hurt them. 

Tribal Group (TRB) gave an update into the AGM. With timelines going out further, one would be wise not to ascribe too much value in light of a second warning about the timing of and Keith Evan's departing, the warning signs were there! Having missed the previous year’s targets, the terminology is far from positive, but with a new 'man soon to be at the wheel' there's some hope. 


It was interesting to hear some excitement in the Oz about SC55 operated by Otto Energy. Tiddler watch, Red Emperor (RMP) Resources have a 15% working interest (WI) on a capped cost basis USD5.625m. If costs exceed RMP cap they have the right to reduce their WI!

RMP, a small cap with near £5M in cash (and most of it spoken for, if not all), there's no room for failure. As Ian put it a binary bet on the outcome of drilling in Q3. SC55 was originally farmed out to BHP, time will tell whether they were prudent to have walked away. Widows and orphans need not apply! 

For those with a memory of RMP, they used to be a shareholder in Highfield Resources (ASX: HFR) whom recently raised AU$101M. RMP sold all their stock at circa 80 cents a share (only 4 months or so ago). With little sign of the ASX: HFR ending its bull run at the time, RMP's timing was should be considered poor, or should it be worded as desperate for cash? 

Had Aureus Mining (AUE) been able to release a sensible RNS about their Q1 progress and Management Discussion and Analysis (MD&A), there would have been time to speed through it rather than the snakes and ladders approach to RNS’ing! You can read it here. Their IR best shape up, or investors (including small funds simply won't bother!), first pour expect end of the month! 

No time for the gold speculation in Asia/NYSE (also arbitrage), with investors hoovering up physical ETF's, nor WTI/ struggling to maintain it's $60/bbl support and the Brent GAP expanding again. The analyst who reads the papers two days ago after best have a whip round to speed up coverage.

Thought for the weekend, is the worst over for Capital Drilling (CAPD), compared to those leveraged operators! Good piece in LEX PGM Plunge with Alan Livsey and Richard Stovin-Bradford. Missing some very important indicators but all the same thought provoking. 

Atb Fraser

Tuesday, 28 April 2015

Morning Mumble: Talvivaara (TALV) do holders have a case? The Hedge Fund's speculation, AQP soon to be RIP?

Good Morning, 

Talvivaara investigate their own disclosures between 2011-2013, where it is alleged the market wasn't informed of significant changes in production volumes and the impact on the forecasts. 

Readers of FTML will know TALV was a favoured short for a considerable time. Apart from the obvious, what more did investors need in assessing what a crap investment is? Even at significantly higher Nickel prices, TALV could not make money. Simply put, "its technological model" is/wasn't suited to an environment of prices any less than twice the current market (EMC view). (Source regarding investigations: Taloussanomat). 

The Hedge Funds have spotted what the EMC realised with an iron ore price spike, when two small buyers were in the market, with the physical (almost immediate delivery) being in short supply. Its common, when prices tank for companies to slow the immediate supply to market, in the hope prices pick up or a premium, as such the speculators are going to make those in need pay. Even the "tin" market (Indonesian woes) may benefit by the categorical absence of decent supply. So with commodity traders betting on a short-term appreciation, expect some decent, yet predictable volatility. 

Fortescue Metals Group (ASX: FMG) refinancing, was the kick-start the stock needed to recover some of its losses. Albeit the profit-taking is now in full flow, damn those traders. FMG's refinancing on a simple level was needed, but was far from cheap, or was it acknowledging the risks of things to come. So with some breathing space and the Chinese determined not to let the native producers go to wall, the swallows are departing quickly!

Aquarius Platinum (AQP) Financial and Production Results to 31 March 2015, which should have been labelled Q3 production, but AQP would be wise to stick to a non-standardised update format. Simply, the results are crap, in the absence of a turnaround in the PGM (Platinum Group Metals) sector, the company is destined for more pain. Well, not exactly, the shareholders are. 

Obviously with AQP, you can scrape the barrel by looking at the cost improvements in a "hard environment, ounces down on the previous quarter and labour costs set to rise. With a telescope to a hope of future price appreciation, AQP isn't looking pretty. Of course there's some benefits to trading, illiquid, moves on little volume, but not without risks. 

It’s hard to justify a value above the cash in AQP. How certain parties managed to get other jobs post AQP makes one wonder! In the absence of a recovery in PGM prices, don't expect anything other than pain, save for the asset sales made today. 

Allied Minds (ALM) annual results were out, which need a significant amount of time for this techno-limited mind to work through! Having banked profit at 600 and the cheeky short, there's no concern regarding any holding, the wise should have also taken some profit!

Finally, Oil has woken up to the inventory reporting, wonders will never cease. Sirius Minerals suffering the usual sell on the news...Kier Group's (KIE) rights issue to buy Mouchel will not do the SP any favours post completion of the deal.

Atb Fraser

Wednesday, 11 February 2015

Pm Bolt On: The Whooping great Lonmin and Skyshorts &....Glencore, Aussie Dollar + Oil.

Good evening, 

Exceptionally busy day but moving swiftly on to the realities biting in the PGM sector and digital TV rights sector. It would appear Glencore (GLEN) could not find a company desperate to take on their Lonmin stake bar the currently holders gaining “in specie." Has Ivan lost his touch of being able to do deals?

Lonmin (LMI) and RSA (Republic of South Africa) unless something remarkably changes is unexciting and unlikely to produce decent returns for holders. GLEN's actions have capped any positives LMI would have had, although the shorters will have welcomed the reaction. We will ignore LMI's margins, they don't appear to want to comment above stating they're profitable

For those knowing more about LMI, quite why they're spending what they do on their furnaces without introducing ConRoast in its full form is something perhaps the company would like to answer. Does the company need reminding they have grandfather rights in the technology? Bob the Builder would welcome this type of contracting work, build, blow up repair...perhaps Shaft Sinkers should morph itself into blow up repairs?

GLEN's production report was out, avoiding the killing the shares deserved. Spending has been cut from just shy of $8 billion to $6.5, GLEN's positioning in the market with its assets doesn't bode well for the underlying earnings that will be announced in 3 March 2015. Production was far from enough to prevent a drop in earnings, but the market likes the additional cuts, when is GLEN's dividend under review/shelved? 

Those LMI in specie holders looking for a new home, there's always ITV, with a lot of noise coming out from some decent corners of the city about a potential offer. The caveat I'm long in ITV and would welcome a take out by Vodafone or Liberty. Having attempted to test this not one journalist (all 8) known to EMC have been able to validate the chatter. So it comes with a high risk warning. 

GBPAUD (£Vs. AU$), the favoured FX play, with the political issues and rate cuts, commodity prices and general state of the economy, Australia has got its wish on a weaker currency. All those years ago, via Moorad's Shout Table in the Long Room the targets were a little expectant in terms of time frames. Closing the GBPAUD longs and awaiting the next set of indicators post £1VsAU$1.97. 

Australia will be affected by the iron ore 'cost war' with Rio battening down the hatches in Pilbara and giving the signal to the sector, Rio Tinto stops hiring in bid to cut costs, Australian's may be at risk of causing their own increase in unemployment by their determination to allow the excessive supply of iron ore and coal. GLEN's suspension (temporary shutdown) of coal production in Australia was too little too late for the market as their figures of increased production evidenced, over supplying your own market is never wise by circa 8-9mt's minimum. 

Oil (Crude & WTI) continue the realisation of inventories and take a further kicking, the Chinese speculators disappeared as quick as they came, we'll await the press realising the floating storage being below market consensus. WTI trading $49.10/bbl off 1.84% for March contracts and Brent's disparity narrowing at $54.72/bbl off -3.03%, not great for those, including the minnows Trap Oil (TRAP). TRAP came out and gave their holders a royal awakening with a corporate and operational update, one wonders if they were asleep at the wheel as investors.

Hats off to BT.A for playing a very shrewd game and forcing SKY to weaken its competitive edge and overpaying on premier league rights. Unless Sky have bought the rights to a magic show, the end user is going to have to wear some of the costs or the shareholder, its unlikely to be much of the latter. The term unsustainable covers Sky's premier lead bidding very well. Sky needs a few more users to spread the cost...

Who would have thought it, Apple going into First Solar, what next Tesla? Surely gold isn’t weak due to Apple share price appreciation at $1219.10/oz. 

Atb Fraser.

Tuesday, 10 February 2015

Morning Mumble: PGM Horse Trading &...and real economics.

Good Morning,

The rocky road of Republic of South Africa (RSA) PGM industry, or soon to be known as the shareholder gift-aid scheme. Aquarius Platinum (AQP) has managed to find a sucker in Northam Platinum (NHM: Johannesburg) for the Everest Mine that's been on care and maintenance since mid-2012. The costs associated with mining, allowing for a weakening Rand(ZAR) and labour disputes settling down, makes the industry untenable at current costs and a surplus in the platinum industry mean prices are going to stay around production costs plus 7% (ish) for the foreseeable future unless something changes. So any leveraged outfit is unlikely to achieve a sensible level of shareholder returns. 

Will it benefit Sylvania Platinum (SLP) J/V at Everest North tailings operation? Unlikely, but the management can of course use some crystal ball gazing to award themselves some more no-cost options to reward them if Everest North does come back online. Its difficult for a platinum company, if they don't invest in platinum they're essentially saying what everyone else knows, there's better returns elsewhere. Until the gap between demand and supply narrows mothballed mines coming back into production will only prolong the pain for the sector. 

Inspirit Energy (INSP) signs letter of intent yesterday and conducts a "micro" placing today. This appears to go in for a seasonal ramping. Having a position and traded this stock according to ramps and news flow. The company needs a decent partner with funding that removes the risks to the current holders. It’s "almost" identical to LGO's Spanish oil news flow all those years ago. Not without risks, but with some potential, one hopes any deal isn't hindered by a JV with a Goliath that has little interest in pushing the market share. We'll ignore the obvious with the Micro-placing terminology, it’s a placing and very small at that...almost implying its crowd funding. One just hopes they don't open a microbrewery! 

With Oil tracking the bi-polar mood of the world economics at the moment, it’s disappointing to see the likes of TUI AG Plc (TUI) hedging so significantly in their 1st Quarter Results. Forget hindsight, when would have TUI have not benefited from a 50% (approx.) hedging and fill the rest from the spot price? Perhaps this amateur is missing something, but a quick gauge over the past 5 years would have meant a net benefit of circa 6-7% on fuel costs.

Copper is hanging on the cliff of appreciation or depreciation, with some gossip in China that the numbers and trade are down further. In contrast financing seems to be improving for leveraged trading (attempted bottom feeding) and restocking taking place contradicting all those bulls the market was artificially low. trading circa $2.5450/lb. Chinese trade data now increasing the odds of Chinese full-on stimulus if they wish to maintain their growth targets, the market awaits the direction or revisions to growth. 

London Property Bets in the FT. EMC commentary on Berkeley Group & Foxtons, the first set of shorts were 5 months ago and now the market is waking up to the realities again where there's a secondary short as the market accepts the facts. 

Zoopla (ZPLA) and Rightmove (RMV) have to do maintain their competitiveness with their fees and advertising. OnTheMarket.com (OTM.com) is the dilution for the sector and a disruptor over the long term for earnings, whether it is a success is immaterial to estate agents whom can negotiate harder, with London normalising, ZPLA and RMV will be under pressure. Expect the denial and ignorance to persist with price appreciation in the market, until OTM.com's marketing and impacts are felt. 

UBS find themselves with the no news award today confirming they've been affected by the CHF both short-term and longer-term. It will impact on their longer term results, unless of course they've employed a magician.  

Atb Fraser

Friday, 6 February 2015

Morning Mumble: De Ef Esse &

Intention to Float - UKLA - DFS Furniture Limited, should thrill those whom want an almost identical sofa as their neighbours. In discussions yesterday its suggested DFS are getting the IPO away (like SCS) as the trend cyclical and towards the peak. Its something that needs a little more work on, but all the same, when the company is surprised by their own performance but with no mention of this within the IPO docks one thinks they're chancing their arm. 

DFS don't do premium brands which excludes a significant number of middle earners. Having just purchased la-z-boy electric recliners for my crib, I'm inclined agree. The shrewd will not be short initially, with a degree of seasonality to the sales and sector will this be akin to longing Majestic  Wine (MJW) through Christmas to sell in January, save for this year. 

There's some deflation happening in RSA (Republic of South Africa) at the moment with Anglo American's (via AmPlats) sale of Bokoni mine in Limpopo. The reported figure is $263 million down from the $385M before Christmas. they'd only have to wait a few months before they could just gift-aid it. AmPlats will no doubt be happy with any taker, Atlatsa Resources (ATL.TO) may be a different story whose price appreciation was last seen during the Jurassic period.

Today's no news award goes to Tate & Lyle, the views from EMC are known, Sugar is in a dire position. The update is more of a bitter after taste (perhaps stevia like). Investors should consider this another shot across the bows for the sugar investors. 

EMC was wise enough to spot the ethanol margins but the market and certain analysts seem to have ignored the swell in bio-fuel inventories. We'll save the face of one individual at a certain brokerage the shame of what he thought of my ethanol mumblings, only two weeks ago with a side thought for banks including ethanol. So TATE's trading update slots perfectly into the category knows as a profits warning, we'll ignore the issues with High-Fructose Corn Syrup (HFCS) for now.

Oil's over to the big boys to speculate and acquire positions, with the majority on the sidelines, the speculation and big bets are pinned on a recovery by December 2016. One is getting the impression the traders are holding their fingers in the air and misreading the wind which is really a draft. CAPEX reductions will not change the supply immediately, demand will. 

With Afren's interest now looking more than likely to assets only, will the bond holders be taking the company? The longer-term view assuming the market is correct will mean the bonds are looking more like a semi-decent bet.

Copper has decided to find parallels with oil hitting $2.5761/lb on little more than physical buying...could the commodities cycle be on the turn or more a blip in the lower lowers and consolidating positions after significant drops.

It was amusing the banter from the long only contingent today with their reviews of Poundland's (PLND's) acquisition of the 99p stores. Yes, perhaps a timely reminder to stick with the original valuation of £4, having sold in 
November for pretty much what I paid, today they aren't far off my target of £4 which should be reviewed. 

Atb Fraser