Morning Mumble: Talvivaara (TALV) do holders have a case? The Hedge Fund's speculation, AQP soon to be RIP?

Good Morning, 

Talvivaara investigate their own disclosures between 2011-2013, where it is alleged the market wasn't informed of significant changes in production volumes and the impact on the forecasts. 

Readers of FTML will know TALV was a favoured short for a considerable time. Apart from the obvious, what more did investors need in assessing what a crap investment is? Even at significantly higher Nickel prices, TALV could not make money. Simply put, "its technological model" is/wasn't suited to an environment of prices any less than twice the current market (EMC view). (Source regarding investigations: Taloussanomat). 

The Hedge Funds have spotted what the EMC realised with an iron ore price spike, when two small buyers were in the market, with the physical (almost immediate delivery) being in short supply. Its common, when prices tank for companies to slow the immediate supply to market, in the hope prices pick up or a premium, as such the speculators are going to make those in need pay. Even the "tin" market (Indonesian woes) may benefit by the categorical absence of decent supply. So with commodity traders betting on a short-term appreciation, expect some decent, yet predictable volatility. 

Fortescue Metals Group (ASX: FMG) refinancing, was the kick-start the stock needed to recover some of its losses. Albeit the profit-taking is now in full flow, damn those traders. FMG's refinancing on a simple level was needed, but was far from cheap, or was it acknowledging the risks of things to come. So with some breathing space and the Chinese determined not to let the native producers go to wall, the swallows are departing quickly!

Aquarius Platinum (AQP) Financial and Production Results to 31 March 2015, which should have been labelled Q3 production, but AQP would be wise to stick to a non-standardised update format. Simply, the results are crap, in the absence of a turnaround in the PGM (Platinum Group Metals) sector, the company is destined for more pain. Well, not exactly, the shareholders are. 

Obviously with AQP, you can scrape the barrel by looking at the cost improvements in a "hard environment, ounces down on the previous quarter and labour costs set to rise. With a telescope to a hope of future price appreciation, AQP isn't looking pretty. Of course there's some benefits to trading, illiquid, moves on little volume, but not without risks. 

It’s hard to justify a value above the cash in AQP. How certain parties managed to get other jobs post AQP makes one wonder! In the absence of a recovery in PGM prices, don't expect anything other than pain, save for the asset sales made today. 

Allied Minds (ALM) annual results were out, which need a significant amount of time for this techno-limited mind to work through! Having banked profit at 600 and the cheeky short, there's no concern regarding any holding, the wise should have also taken some profit!

Finally, Oil has woken up to the inventory reporting, wonders will never cease. Sirius Minerals suffering the usual sell on the news...Kier Group's (KIE) rights issue to buy Mouchel will not do the SP any favours post completion of the deal.

Atb Fraser