Good Morning,
It was surprising that Merlin Entertainment (MERL) have not
updated the market on the casualties at Alton Towers yesterday, with 4 serious
casualties in an incident around 2pm yesterday. One wishes them a speedy
recovery, but with suggestions about the health of rides and how the company
has dealt with concerns, could this have further ramifications for MERL's theme
parks per se. (BBC)
One certainly to watch as the HSE will become involved if they haven't
already.
Dixons Carphone (DC.) have had a corking year, with little
in the way of a disclosed split in trading, Q4 between electrical and phones, one merely has to
take the companies word at face value. Like-for-like (LFL) revenue up 9%, full
year up 6%, combined with market share increases suggests the majority of
growth was via the phones unit after the downfall of Phones4U. One should hope
so too!
Thinking back to yesterday's AO World (AO.), its far from
positive in respect that margins have been stable for Dixon's, whom one
suspects are not cannibalising their margins by creating a very expensive
platform, their own, to then aim to grasp market share and revenue via
eBay.
Over to DC. (Bold is an addition);
It is a truism that the time to fix the roof is when the
sun is shining, and we will pursue continued investment in the business this
year to do just that. We are making excellent progress but there is still much
to do, and many areas of the business that we want to improve further.
Delivery options, IT investment, extending our free warranty programme, further
training for our colleagues, Norwegian pricing and others are in our
sights to make us stronger in the long term.
Quite what AO will compete against, as the physical touch of
stock is imperative to sales of certain white goods and home appliances is
another thing. Yes, DC. have to shoulder the burden of the "appliance
appraiser" whose only intention is to utilise Curry's/Carphone Warehouse
to test the product before buying on price. However, as observed and contrary
to some research, they're turning browsing into sales.
For past reading, EMC: Sept 14 DC.
Cairn
Homes intends to float on the LSE. To quote from the announcement,
"The Directors believe that no homebuilder of scale is currently
operating in Ireland." Now why would that be? Having been viewing
property around cork for some time, anyone with Google will be able to explain
why and what the Irish market is like.
Obviously if one pins their hopes on a full blown economic recovery you'll not
worry about unemployment being 10%, ok 9.9% if you want to quibble and
allegedly hitting 7% by 2020. The population expected to grow by 613,000
people from 2016 to 2031. We'll stop before this becomes a thesis, but we'll
leave those with a greater Irish curiosity to consider the reason why there's a
"net outward migration" forecast. Central Statistics Office (CSO) Ireland.
Just as a consideration, Cairn Homes appear categorically absent in the
difference between the forecasts they are using, which are not inaccurate but
suffice to say bullish. Cairn's quoted population increases are based on "internal
migration patterns returning to the traditional pattern last observed in the
mid-1990s". We'll cover that with the BOOM. Whereas if one factors
internal migration based on 2011 numbers (*more realistic) it’s likely to
be nearer 384K and births are declining.
The number of home-movers isn’t great (but admittedly improving). Moves between
regions in Southern Ireland have been in significant decline the main reason
for property appreciation around Dublin. CSO Ireland.
Cairn Homes will no doubt roar away, but
save for a longer-term view, investors would be wise to consider the 'full'
Irish picture. Unless of course, Cairn Homes are building property for the
Irish in Liverpool, Nottingham, Birmingham, Manchester and Bolton. Then again,
the listing is the first I've seen in more recent times that the directors are
putting significant skin in the game, a credit to them.
The positive is without a doubt the focus on Dublin, with a
better resilience and even on the lower estimates has potential for growth, but
simply, don't get too carried away with expectations.
Atb Fraser
Fraser- Hi- another Trent Bridge day for me, after the first 2 days of a thriller, swinging to and fro and now firmly in Notts favour. It should end today, one day early and hopefully Notts will get their first 4 day win of the season. Well that's the theory but the swings in fortune may continue today.
ReplyDeleteRe DC- yes, v favourable comparisons with AO. and their fierce expansion plans into a v mature market (has that ever had a happy ending??)- good luck with that guys and restablishing a decent margin when you have the mkt share you have bought. That's could be impossible in that market.
A quiet day as the Greeks play their silly games- they are like the dinner lady that owes £1m - the numbers have never worked, the debt grows and grows and the brown stuff has to be allowed to just hit the fan at some point, whether its this month or next is not that important unless you have some money in a Greek bank.
Have a great day- I will --- if Notts win, if not I will drown my sorrows so a good day either way.
Cheers. The Leggie