Tuesday 23 June 2015

A belated a Pm Bolt-On. Morning Mumble: Sirius Minerals (The final hour approaches), Firestone Diamonds, CICG and Gate Ventures

Oops forgot to press publish, so belatedly a Pm Bolt-On. 

Good Morning,

It was perplexing to hear of a number of holders not derisking either on the rise if larger or above 20+pence to find themselves with fear now engrained in the SP (EMC: SXX Derisking threepence target in the event of failure). With such a wide range of valuation between 3 pence and 45 pence. It’s not an easy play, save for some CFD terminals offering a form of arbitrage of a level it makes it a viable play. 

Firestone Diamonds (FDI) is delayed Liqhobong Mine development. FDI may be grateful for this, in light of a further softening in Diamond prices. One savvy analyst feels there's limited growth in the diamond market with the Russian's far from being controlled in their marketing and sales. 

Yesterday Gemfield's (GEM) evidenced the contraction in realised prices and a cap on financing where the traders have to have more skin in the game. Disappointment for FDI, even allowing for the FX and power line benefits, the expectations have been reset 6 months. Q4 2015. 

Finally, it’s the first day of dealings for CIC Gold, one certainly to follow more so for enjoyment than anything else. Same as Gate Ventures (GATE) where the NOMAD has quit, but GATE wish to inform the market they've raised some cash via a convertible loan note. The pricing and terms of such a deal are to remain a mystery for the time being. One assumes that common-sense will start to prevail! 

A slow morning! Thought for the day, if copper has a supply glut, what does this do for those overly leveraged copper producers? 

Atb Fraser

1 comment:

  1. Hi Fraser- slowing down now here too.

    Re SXX- some rumours re 3 of the likely Yes voters saying they cant attend the 30/6/15 NYMPA meeting seems to have spooked some. A slap up meal or even an around the world trip with Cleveland Potash paying??? No one knows...Can they vote via deputies? No one knows, they certainly cant give a postal vote as they have to account for the pre lunch verbal presentations, which now has an agreed timetable. So a bit of panic at possible skulduggery today, the chickens having been counted before they had hatched. £300m does look like a high mkt cap if they get a No, but I still think the Yes will result, albeit you would be daft to bet the house on it. Perhaps a shed size bet is the play here. Or a tent, depending on your budget....

    Re FDI- some weather issues, some nasty heavy boulders and far more than they planned for has slowed progress, albeit the budget will hold as they have shared the power line costs with a neighbour. Im holding as Im sure they have been v conservative re their bigger stones estimates, which means Im looking at 2017/18 for the mkt to wake up here. And gem mining is all about the big stones. A minor fall from recent highs here, but 6 months has been lost, which may help them re prices firming.

    Cheers. The Leggie

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