Good Morning,
Has the market lost its mind, Lonmin results are dire.
We'll ignore the electricity issues (likely 13%+
appreciation over 4 years) as this makes up a modest 7% of production costs and
focus on the costs. As LMI kindly outline, unit cost of production per PGM
ounce rose from R13,058/oz. to R10,516/oz. Using LMI's average exchange rate,
South African Rand (ZAR/R) to US Dollar, R/$ 11.48, costs were $916/oz, before
associated costs.
Average prices achieved on the key metal PGM basket (excluding
by-product revenue) $916/Oz. (2014: $999/oz.) PGM basket (including by-product
revenue) $988/oz (2014: $1,056/oz). Simply put, why are LMI bothering. If any
expectant Glencore LMI holders are planning on retaining their stock, it would
be interesting to hear why. Maybe they like gift-aid, keeping construction
workers in employment with the forth bridge of furnaces?
With the market pricing in Platinum at $1135/oz today, LMI
believe their 200K ounces locked up due to Furnace One & Two being shut
down for maintenance and repairs would have reduced their debt. Indeed it
would, but there's a trend occurring, so any debt reduction is going to be
short lived.
Production backlog will unwound in the second half. So will
global prices by the looks of things if they haven't appreciated with 200K
ounces being "locked in." The question is will the sales be at a
profit, loss or break-even, there's two probabilities and it certainly isn't a
profit.
It would be wise not to get too excited by the 70+%
increases in production as the comparative period had a strike on! So LMI would
perhaps be wise to consider their inventories 200K ounces higher and drip into
market, over 24 months.
For those long-standing readers of EMC, you'll note the
positives of Aureus Mining (AUE), with the company declaring Liberia is Ebola
free, well for 42 days so far. They update its Bea Mountain Mining Licence has been
enlarged to include the Leopard Rock gold target. With first production due in
3 weeks (or perhaps sooner, the share price should respond. (EMC: Aureus Mining).
Highfield Resources (ASX: HFR) come out with a 10%
discounted placing for $101M below the targeted amount but enough to raise the
debt for their Muga Potash Mine, expect news of a $166M debt facility in
due course.
A rare earth miner may just have a significant haircut...no time either for Orogen Gold (ORE), had those punters listened...EMC: ORE and the no news award goes to AFC Energy AFC Energy.
Atb Fraser
Fraser- I shall be erratic this week as R is off so trips all over the place most days. Derbyshire today, given the super weather, so Matlock, Bakewell and Chatsworth visited and back with plenty of variable goods :-))
ReplyDeleteRe LMI-- I saw this before trip and it ticked the boxes for Dead In The Water for me, so surprised it didn't tank today. They need to get their act together, regular breakdowns being the norm and they still ignore your fav Con Roast which could really assist here. Debt goes from $29m to $282m, which says it all and they are risking further shutdowns by trying to sack another 3.5k, which could see the workforce wandering off for months again.... a real basket case for me, with those GLEN shares being thrown at their shareholders soon (circa 24%) then its as clear a short as I can see, albeit no position for me.
Re AUE- its mainly about New Liberty here for me now, the gold flows in a few weeks and the numbers look great if they meet expectations, so the shares should shed some of their v heavy discount soon.
Re SXX- NYMNPA have put out their latest newsletter and its clear that Chris France, the key man here as the Director of Planning will issue his report re York Potash at least 5 days before 30/6/15, in a similar style to the Redcar process, so this is now the key date for SXX, as the 30/6/15 meeting should really involve a big rubber stamp. No doubt SXX will follow the Redcar route and announce both outcomes to keep the market fair. Lets see.
http://www.northyorkmoors.org.uk/planning/york-potash
Cheers. The Leggie