Wednesday 18 March 2015

Morning Mumble: HochsChild (HOC)...SOLG & SNTY

Good Morning, (It would have been in I had published it!) Good Afternoon,

The preliminary results for HOC are in and this company results are worse than the EMC expect, apparently the market disagree, validating the closure of shorts for the news. HOC is the cursory reminder of the risks of leveraged plays evolving in slow motion. HOC need silver above $17.55/oz. to break-even even allowing for hedges. 

HOC advise the market that there's some Jam tomorrow with, "all-in sustaining costs [are] expected to be $15-16 per silver equivalent ounce." Validating the shorts, AISC's (all-in sustaining costs) for the reporting period at $17.4/oz., which lets face facts is dire, and apparently exceeding guidance. 

Very belatedly, HOC's mine plans are being revised to deliver profitable ounces in lower precious metal price environment. Surely when ramping up production and mining, efficiency is key, an entity should be aiming to deliver the "most" profitable ounces irrespective of metals prices over a mine life. 

Considering the currencies that HOC operates in, namely Peruvian Nuevo Sol (PEN) and Argentine Peso (ARS), but reporting in dollars, one would have expected a significant improvement in costs.  Yet HOC only beat their cost guidance by 1% despite a weakness in local currencies. 

Inmaculada, looks further delayed and is only 90% complete, but as they've sunk significant capital into Inmaculada, its rude not to drop another $70M in their for good keeping. Hochschild's bonds are starting to mirror the share price, at what point does it become viable to own the bonds rather than the equity, aka Afren and Gulf Keystone? Or avoid totally and short the lot...'under-review'.  

SolGold (SOLG) announce an open offer to review/progress the Cascabel project in Ecuador. Why they didn't do it all in one go in December?!?! Yes it would have required shareholder approval, but better in the long-term. Over to someone savvy to pick up Cornerstone Capital Resources whom need a little more cash later on, they must have just under $1m available. 

Oil….the Chinese will enforce crude take-home for storage at these rates! The no news of the day goes to SNTY (Synety Group), many thanks (added: see comments FTML!)

Atb Fraser

2 comments:

  1. Wow...

    Given the fees involved in that SNTY release, someone had their pants down around their ankles !

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  2. Fraser- Hi- out yesterday but around most of today. My day job returns now the cricket season is just around the corner...

    A v interesting update from the NATs, one of the big tanker groups and an insight into their world that you may find of interest
    http://www.investegate.co.uk/nordic-american-tankers-limite/gnw/letter-from-the-chairman-and-ceo-of-nordic-amer---/20150319104043H4772/

    Re NXT- at the top end but cautious, as always so the mkt takes some profits. I feel a bit sorrier for TED, they have had a storming year and a younger version of NXT perhaps but the mkt marks them down too. Still its not normally a good thing for shares to rise in a straight line and some have mouths to feed, so todays sales are probably v healthy in the longer term.

    Cheers. The Leggie

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