Original published draft version (content or context has not changed!) It appears I had two pages open and published the wrong one. Edited version below, mere typos etc...
Good Morning,
It was only in a call the other day I was
asked about Gfinity Plc (appointed a Creative
Director) and GAME Digital get in on the act with the acquisition of
Multiplay (UK) Limited. A very brief comparison suggests Gfinity is
over-the-price. There is likely to be only one winner in this space, but...GFIN
and GMD might be in for some tough competition, with rumours about two
Television Broadcasters considering a similar model to Robot Wars for gamers.
The question is, will it draw the viewers?
Staying with rumours as the weekend allows
for such things, normally after a substantial share price movement on a Friday,
perhaps the board of Gulf Keystone would like to update the market on the offer
received? If the gossip is
true, Gulf Keystone have already got an indicative bid subject to a
CPR and a few other pieces of due diligence, namely production.
Over the weekend China showed its cards in
just how aggressive it is prepared to go to maintain growth above the 7% level.
The contradiction is the Chinese government are now conditioning the market to
'easing.' The comrades are
not prepared to let growth drop without a good fight. It’s not often the WSJ
gets the tune of China on the money, China’s Rate Cut Renews Economic Concerns
Beijing is relying on increasingly aggressive measures to rev up economic
activity.
The Chinese are concerned, not only about
the growth, but their "B&B of exports", which are in decline.
China's growth may just be impacting on its competitiveness. PMI
Data (Reuters), confirming all the logically economic issues in China.
Ceramic Fuel (CFU), time to turn the lights out, this stock has performed
EXACTLY how it should have in light of performance. If you bought in, perhaps
you sould be asking yourself why/what/where...these mistakes are often more
valuable than one realises.
Due to other commitments, a short-one!
Save for Allied Mines...(ALM). Staggering!
Atb Fraser
Fraser- Hi again- Please, please, please confirm that GENL aren't involved in the GKP "offer"-- they don't need any further exposure re Kurds oil, esp heavy, hard to dev oil. It is curious that GKP have mentioned their latest cash payment doesn't involve the restart of export sales (which have funds channelled via the government) and that its a prepayment re future crude sales (presumably into the local market)... no mention of the price achieved by the cash would have only been advanced on a nice discount, so I guess they didn't get the $42/barrel they last reported for local sales in Oct 2014-- $30/barrel anyone... Given the debt I cant value GKP at more than 40p, even being generous, but perhaps I need rose tinted specs and a more generous view re issue of regular export payments.
ReplyDeleteRe RUR- more promises today- will be prudent and wait for execution as they haven't got a great track record re past promises
Re AFR- a further stay of execution- the continuation of talks may well be heading down the POG confetti path, with bondholders in the best position to take effective control--- I wonder how many of those that bought POG at 15p plus are "piling in" here to see what could be a v similar outcome. Lets see...
Cheers. The Leggie
Hi Fraser,
ReplyDeleteYou've opened up a can of worms for yourself. GKP holders are already quoting you liberally. How confident are you of your whispers? Is it a full T/O or is a JV possible?
Regards,
Tony
Tony- Im sure Fraser doesn't want to go down the GKP rabbit hole.... there are plenty of GKP watchers in straightjackets already :-))
DeleteIve heard some rumours too but given the sources I would score them just 3/10... I would be surprised if they haven't had a lowball offer so far from the Chinese but these often have issues with timing (2 years or so) and cant get approval from their masters in the end. Good luck all GKP longs.
Cheers. The Leggie (No position in GKP)
Good Evening,
DeleteA full on day and just home! I totally agree Leggie with RUR. They look to need more cash than just 'barely' financing for projects, but clearly people are buying in. Their current profits cover the costs but longer term Rurelec need some 'decent' cash behind them.
GKP, there's far worse shares I'd exchange for GKP than Genel. At circa 6 GKP to 1 Genel it would be cheap but far from robbery in the current market, perhaps a competitive auction? The gossip so far gives an implied of circa 95 pence. Remember gossip can damage your wealth if you bet solely on it.
Tony, only commenting on the rumours/gossip I heard no more no less, rumours come with agendas and often speculation. A JV is unlikely without a decent cash payment/farm in, so with the geopolitical risks, you may as well be large enough to absorb such exposure in the short-term. Perhaps the suitors are either centred already for operations 'or' looking for a sensible hedge with production compared to other areas of the globe. There's two in the running, with potential, one with a larger chequebook!
Whatever happened to my proofreading this morning is anyone's guess, it wasn't that bad when I clicked publish.
Atb Fraser
Thanks for your balanced response Fraser. I concur that a full T/O is more likely, but I wouldn't rule out a JV purely from a risk POV and the spectre of having to take on $525m in debt. Also 95p looks pretty decent from where we are now, but things will also depend on Simon Murray's persuasive powers in the Far East. What is certain is that GKP and the KRG need something to come out of this fairly soon.
DeleteRegards,
Tony
Tony, simply put I don't see GKP being a JV, the risks don't merit paying a premium to share the rewards for those entities that can afford to consider the transaction. GKP, have debt, payment (receivable) issues, 95 pence looks about the money save for any revisions in CPR or productions woes. In fact when considering the debt, there's a damn good argument for zero premium to the current SP. Cheers, Fraser
DeleteFraser, debt is almost cancelled out by monies owed. It's up to the KRG to convince any prospective bidders that it intends to honour the terms of the PSC. How much does the KRG want Shakan to get up to 100k bopd?
DeleteI was asked to publish some rant about the following: http://epetitions.direct.gov.uk/petitions/75186 in the hope it gathers speed I assume? Shorting in essence is selling shares to bet they go lower or alternatively not higher. The statements are amateurish at best, pathetic at worse. Banning selling shares!?!?
ReplyDeleteGive over, either the person(s) do not comprehend the market or the market should have IQ tests.
Atb Fraser