Morning Mumble: ASOS - with market muppetry - Genel (GENL) its looking like a turn around but two swallows don't make a summer & VW - the realities + putting Presidential hopefuls media campaigns to shame.

Good Morning, in the morning as well!

Very brief so kept it to bullets...hopefully. 

• ASOS - (ASC) Final Results were out today and they were ahead of EMC expectations - bought into the sell-off. Consideration is, that although they don't justify PE's of a stellar proportions, its common-sense to consider the positives. 

• ASC have finally realised the need for brand loyalty in the online market space with their roll out of ASOS Rewards loyalty scheme. Its negative on margins (50 bps) but does encourage repeat business. With sales likely to be around 17-20% ahead for the year. Over to ASOS:

Following a successful trial, we will launch our new ASOS Rewards loyalty scheme during the next six months, initially for our UK customers. This rewards programme allows customers to build up points on purchases, which become convertible into vouchers for use on our platforms. In addition to this, customers will unlock a wide variety of other rewards such as birthday discounts, free next day deliveries and exclusive content.  

• Genel Energy - (GENL) gave a trading & operational update that was about the market. Swiftly followed by the Receipt of payment for KRI oil exports from Taq Taq field from the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). The "if" factor is the need for regular payments to be maintained and the market has had many a false dawn. The costs are being managed and with the current level of KRG payments at least interest payments and debt service is more than likely. 

• GENL - Consideration should be given to the guidance that is implying that supply was shut in until such time as the KRG put up. Time will tell on the latter, but certainly more positive than at the half yearly. 

• Volkswagen AG (ETR: VOW) recent share price support will be tested as news becomes apparent. Reuters - Edmunds.com and associated piece is telling, now consider the implications of the downside in Europe and potential further pressure in China. 

• VW have been very clever in the main - dealing with the crisis in text book crisis management. Credit where credit is due, they've kept the media and associated press articles focused on the marque VW, without the domino effect crashing through Audi, Seat and Skoda. Although, there may be some perception/overlap it will be limited. 

• Research (EMC's - we fund our own so reference it) - The opportunity based research on peoples’ perceptions of car manufacturers suggests that there is a devaluation in the VW marque - Passat/Jetta/Not Polo/Golf and Gold Estate and Sharan with a lesser degree to the Beetle. The irony being the Touareg, where owners 'didn't tend to worry' (we've avoided using the words, do not care).

• The impact and terminology used was more positive on the 3 other marques in the VW stable namely Audi, Seat and Skoda. Although this may change as lawyers grasp the media to force a settlement rather than have a showdown in the court room. This is a significant event risk/crisis management for VW. 

• For those that know a Bentley owner, whom we shall call Indiana. When asked about his perception of emissions on cars. Don't expect many donations to Save the Planet or Greenpeace in his name over the next few years! With a suggestion that he never gets to drive his car! As if!!

• Costs regarding the ‘fix’ for the VW Emissions fixing/rigging are likely to be higher than the initial consensus - Triple Pundit runs with - As Recalls of Volkswagen Cars Begin, Costs Could Climb to $40B. Those early share price targets of buy sub €130 will no doubt be under review. We maintain our target for VW - €87.63 (Euros) a share. The damage is yet to be done to perception. Over to VW's media campaign that will no doubt put some presidential hopefuls’ budgets to shame! 

• Rurelec – (RUR) The amount of communications regarding Sterling Trust today is truly staggering. We've had the company down as a jam tomorrow stock since the handling of the International Arbitration and then the spin-out of Independent Power Corporation from Rurelec. 

• Sadly for Sterling Trust lessons of diversification are a little too late. The spin-out/off of IPC contradicted the transaction in the first place. In the absence of further developments that may return a little to shareholders, don't hold out much hope. RUR has been a sell since the international arbitration and does not warrant much other rating bar avoid/high risk punts only. Have IPSA announced similar – one simply cannot be bothered to check.  

• Hochschild - (HOC) new shares hit the market today. With so much leverage, why they only raised the limited amount and didn't elect to shore up the balance sheet is anyone's guess. Perhaps there simply wasn't the appetite for a large fundraiser in the silver space currently?

• Some half decent results for gold miners today, more later once we've found a few additional toes to aide things. Petropavlovsk Plc (POG)’s interim management statement and Polymetal International (POLY)’s Q3 results.

• We’re hearing various bits of gossip regarding Glencore’s Zambia mines - namely Mopani – are GLEN conducting a deal to finance the expansion whilst maintain operations? One suspects not, but any rumours to assist their price won't go unappreciated by the IR department! Perhaps one for the broad-sheets? Anyone up for some Mopani?

• Vale SA – (NYSE: VALE) production report – were described as strong. With records being set in production it’s not good news for the FE (Iron Ore) price. More time needed there.

• Glencore - (GLEN) will be pleased that they "sold" their the Falcondo nickel operations and the Sipilou nickel projects. What with Vale’s nickel production up, Vedanta’s Hindustan Zinc Q2 production announcement hasn't assisted Glencore one bit! What’s the read across to Glencore’s affirmative action? VED need a stronger headwind than just Zinc

• Vale’s Q3 - results here.

Atb Fraser

Morning Mumble: HochsChild (HOC)...SOLG & SNTY

Good Morning, (It would have been in I had published it!) Good Afternoon,

The preliminary results for HOC are in and this company results are worse than the EMC expect, apparently the market disagree, validating the closure of shorts for the news. HOC is the cursory reminder of the risks of leveraged plays evolving in slow motion. HOC need silver above $17.55/oz. to break-even even allowing for hedges. 

HOC advise the market that there's some Jam tomorrow with, "all-in sustaining costs [are] expected to be $15-16 per silver equivalent ounce." Validating the shorts, AISC's (all-in sustaining costs) for the reporting period at $17.4/oz., which lets face facts is dire, and apparently exceeding guidance. 

Very belatedly, HOC's mine plans are being revised to deliver profitable ounces in lower precious metal price environment. Surely when ramping up production and mining, efficiency is key, an entity should be aiming to deliver the "most" profitable ounces irrespective of metals prices over a mine life. 

Considering the currencies that HOC operates in, namely Peruvian Nuevo Sol (PEN) and Argentine Peso (ARS), but reporting in dollars, one would have expected a significant improvement in costs.  Yet HOC only beat their cost guidance by 1% despite a weakness in local currencies. 

Inmaculada, looks further delayed and is only 90% complete, but as they've sunk significant capital into Inmaculada, its rude not to drop another $70M in their for good keeping. Hochschild's bonds are starting to mirror the share price, at what point does it become viable to own the bonds rather than the equity, aka Afren and Gulf Keystone? Or avoid totally and short the lot...'under-review'.  

SolGold (SOLG) announce an open offer to review/progress the Cascabel project in Ecuador. Why they didn't do it all in one go in December?!?! Yes it would have required shareholder approval, but better in the long-term. Over to someone savvy to pick up Cornerstone Capital Resources whom need a little more cash later on, they must have just under $1m available. 

Oil….the Chinese will enforce crude take-home for storage at these rates! The no news of the day goes to SNTY (Synety Group), many thanks (added: see comments FTML!)

Atb Fraser

Morning Mumble: If Boohoo (BOO) and ASOS (ASC) can do it...B(H)S and oil+shipping (as promised).

Good Morning, 

It wasn't so long ago in a meeting about 'where to invest' in a low oil price environment, I found myself recommending short oil/associated products including washing powders and the like, whilst longing holiday companies and retail leisure.

Next's validation will come shortly on Thursday (Preliminary full year results) with the "beat" being reported as a head of consensus. Perhaps not all blue sky as the market is becoming more active, expect margins after this quarter to go under-pressure again. Simply put, if BOO and ASC can do it, then NEXT should be staggering. 

The debacle of BHS, has no doubt been amusing for the sector pundits, but if the journo's don't have a clue, then we hope those fronting the company do. So whilst at the races, there was speculation from those in the industry that BHS has been acquired by a subsidiary of Iconix China Group and the daughter of Silas Chou, Veronica.

Whether Iconix or the Chou's are the reality behind BHS or not, its speculation based on Silas Chou/Veronica Chou alleged desire for a UK acquisition. For myself, if they're behind big brands, why own department stores? Those of you like I thinking,...who, what, where is Silas Chou, being swiftly told off on Friday, apparently they’re behind the IPO (2011) of Michael Kors and the purchase of Tommy Hilfiger in the late 80's, Karl Lagerfeld and Pepe Jeans. Clear as mud to I, but if I'm honest, not something I will be keeping an eye out for. 

Staying in retail, it looks like Richard Chase is exuding confidence in AO World (AO) stock slotting 5,583,475 shares  at £1.80.  John Roberts (Chief Executive Officer) assures the market John Roberts, Chief Executive Officer, said: "The share sale by Richard Rose follows the expiry of the post-IPO lock-up and will help to further increase liquidity and the number of shares in public hands. Richard remains committed to the Company, both as a shareholder and as its Chairman." 

If one thinks selling 85% (circa) of your stock (a sizeable holding) is commitment and confidence, then this week I shall spend a few hours applying for Chairman type positions of stocks that are stonking shorts. Richard Chase has unknowingly made the Christmas card list of every shorter in AO. 

Kefi, the amazing performing Gold stock, you'll note the sarcasm, gives an update on Tulu Kapi. KEFI are apparently only having to find $20m to obtain $100M in debt financing. They have a number of possible sources currently being assembled, including financing from contractors and equity at the project or parent company level. Over to the International Finance Corporation (IFC) to stump up sum (poor!)! if the equity is at the parent company level, one hopes the current shareholders (including yours truly) do not need a snorkel for the impending dilution! 

Ian was discussing his long in HOC (Hochschild Mining) over the weekend. Having spent so much time away from technology, its apparent he's incapable of differentiating between a long and a short. Today, with silver finding significant support its wise to close any shorts on HOC, not for fear of a change in trend but to lock in significant profits since the Christmas Silver bounce. They're also announcing their annual results on the Wednesday, and they might not be as bad as the market expects. One hopes there all in sustaining costs of circa $17/oz. is much better! The common-sense coverage of HOC via EMC from November 2014.

It would be rude not to consider oil and shipping rates, WTI at $44.26/bbl, and Brent at $54.20/bbl. these prices are likely to impact on shipping rates as speculators exit their floating storage rates. These rates have continued under pressure with Suezmax Tanker Spot Rates into Q1 2015, dropping near 20% from the start of the quarter having peaked at $80K+/day down to $47K/day, Aframax Tanker rates fairing much better at circa $38K/day. LR2 Tankers rates at $26k/day. All classes all (excluding Suezmax) are near 50% above the rates of 2013/2014 and Suezmax up near 100% on 2013/14). 

The industry men describe the current rates as very strong. Based on the oil price being low, with continued strong demand (Asia from Arabia) and stockpiling (surely there can't be much more), and the rates benefiting from the storage speculation (albeit reducing). The market has missed the reduction in Russian export duties (circa 40% lower), where oil producers/exporters delayed shipments to save a few $$. So more oil out of the Black Sea, Mediterranean and Baltic! The weather is impacting on the Turkish straits, delays near 6-8 days. 

With the maintenance schedules coming up at refineries around the globe, this will push higher inventories and impact further on the prices. Will the trend in rates encourage speculation in fleet growth depressing the industry? Oh yes, tanker/shipping rates are likely to come under significant pressure end 2016 into 2017. 

There's been contracts placed on around 49 long-term Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) and Ultra Large Crude Carrier (ULCC) in the past two weeks, giving a floor to the rates and removing excess capacity from the market. All boding well for the tanker market rates but limiting the spot market delivery capabilities. 

Afren (AFR) down another 20% today, perhaps holders have smelt the roses? Don't be silly...over to GKP! 

Atb Fraser

Morning Mumble: All that Glitters Au Ag, Amara's placing, Weatherly, GLIF & JD Wetherspoon.

Good Morning, 

A pleasure when the smaller boys make a decent packet out of the market in comparison to the houses of grandeur such as the high fees for M&A or the odd take private element. 

Having traded long on gold on the back of CHF and China, yes China gave gold a leg up plus Asian trading and NY. China's data created yet more demand on gold risk, so this morning its time to take the majority of profits (perhaps earlier buy but yet again solid profits). It’s not so long ago a few savvy investors picked up some significant low cost gold bets (EMC). It would appear the corporate gold traders were caught napping by the move and very few have profited from the appreciation of gold. Kudos to the few, with a not so paltry pay cheque either.

With gold and silver in fashion at the moment, it is wise to buy exposure into those leveraged plays such as the once upon a time short, HOC (Hochschild) who has appreciated near 30% since the change in sentiment and trend for Ag circa $18.30/oz. HOC's now making a profit again! With HOC's Q4 production update being a lot better than most (includingmyself thought). 

The HOC holders can breathe a sigh of relief with HOC completing a decent hedging programme to lock in some transparency over cashflow even if prices appreciate. With HOC signing agreements to hedge the sale of 6,000,000 ounces of silver at $17.75 per ounce for 2015. This is in addition to the previous agreement to hedge 38,000 ounces of gold for 2015 at $1,300 per ounce.

We'll side step Petropavlovsk (POG) purely on the basis of unnecessary appreciation over Christmas and without justification. 

Copper appears to be looking for a floor / support in the price at the moment, although the deals being done and stocks increasing at LME certainly leave a lot for the interpretation. The guessing for copper will continue as two dominant warrant holders sit on their hands (maybe slightly singed). 

With metal warranted against the January 2015 date becoming prompt this week supplies are likely to up-tick contradicting the narrow bands of supply and demand. One certainly to keep your eye on if trading, especially if the physical market becomes tighter (allegedly) again. (Circa 19th April 2015). One suspects that Standard Bank's Aug/Sept notes on copper might need a slight revision. 

The question over the short-term is will the Chinese smelter excess still be managed appropriately (drip feeding back in to the market) with some losses stacking up or is there likely to be a very short-term swell in physical to meet obligations? The market I suspect will wait till factory restarts before taking an opinion. With factory gate prices lower there's pressure on the market to maintain a competitive (read as cheaper) attractiveness.

We see the results of Amara Mining's (AMA) placing which shaves certain assumptions off the target or take out price, down around 10% of previous estimates (Approximate 25.2 - 28 pence now.) The positives are any suitor is wise to acknowledge AMA is now far from vulnerable to speculative approaches being funded to an investment project decision and is supported. If the book-build was so well supported why is there a discount to market of 15% or thereabouts? 

In-between AMA's announcement of its intentionto conduct a placing (worth a read) and today the costs of the BFS and completion apparently appreciated 10% or should it be the needs appreciated 10%. It’s acknowledged that with a prevailing wind for gold it was wise to press the button on cash. The disappointment being, if Peel Hunt and GMP Securities Europe had to offer a discount on the price, it does not bode well for other entities looking for cash. So in the absence of Randgold (EMC May 2014) news or Samsung, Q4 2015 looks to be the date in mind, one hopes financing can be encouraged in the current gold climate sooner rather than later. 

Stating the obvious award goes to J D Wetherspoon(JDW) with increased competition from the supermarkets. JDW more recent declines I thought were obvious, with landlords’ holidays often taken post-Christmas? With calls for equality in treatment stating the obvious bad news in the sector etc...if JDW don't like the sector why are they operating in it? Expanding yet claiming discriminatory pressures is never a good thing with increased LFL sales and margins, albeit under pressure from their wage increases are healthy. JDW's update will be taken as well as Majestic Wine's (MJW)! The hangover should have been taken post-Christmas. 

Its the day for the GLIF  (GLI Finance ) dividend announcement (see: EMC GLIF April 2014) and only two days ago Inspired Capital (INSC) (the old Renovo aka Ultimate Finance Group) trading update.

Bowleven (BLVN) informed the market of the two well exploration drilling programme on the Bomono Permit, with fingers cross for the company (no position), they'll need it! WTI (Weatherly International) quarterly operations and production update does not bode well! From EMC, will it stop the rot!, we had our answer sooner than expected! 

Little time to discuss the BLT (BHP Billiton) Operational Review Half Year Ended 31 Dec 2014 shale being an obvious candidate for some tighter cost controls and copper even performing well (grades?), Anglo Pacific's update on the Kestrel royalty, seeming like desperation to maintain the SP. Afren's update hasn't gone down well re: amortisation payment.

Atb Fraser

Morning Mumble: Carnage Part 1 Retail, Sugars & Safety in metals...Tate modern...(not so) and Silver WTH

With commodities on the slide the market introduced contempt  for the pricing with recovery in the iron ore producers in Asia and flat in the UK. However, looking at retail, why did Mothercare not snatch their arm/hand body off. The rights issues is a joke, as stated, any holder should have sold on the news...not now! It's cost them dear, the rights issue is a positive for the company, not for the holders. See: Morning Mumble: Iron Ore (From Kumba via Pilbara to Marampa) & LGO's placing...and does Mother Care?! (Poor I know).

Tate & Lyle came in with a lot of known issues all being stacked together, what the market are doing pricing the Co at such a level is beyond me. I have an aggressive target price on TATE of 465 pence. I'd avoid any longs in principle (subject to news changes) until the next warning coming in January. Sucralose might just save TATE, but quality is the key. Something PureCircle might need to look at...Tate still not valuing their Stevia Tasteva (TM) brand with no mention of it. The dividend statements might save them some short-term pain!

Metals has had support come in at last, with some stability across the board save for Iron Ore. Precious metals steady as they go, one would have thought the new trading opportunity would have improved things for gold? The Shanghai Gold Exchange should sort their data out but perhaps that will come over time but volumes were the highest for awhile so I dipped my toe in, the conversion issues to Yuan are very prohibitive, will the exchange last? 

Staying semi-precious with profit being a rarity, what are some silver producers doing with the current price is beyond me! What's the purpose to produce something more expensive than the price achievable! Hochschild’s (HOC) might just have a shock if this continues. Perhaps changing banks and broker to HSBC would assist the price? (please excuse my sarcasm there). Afterall, the writing was on the wall (Morning Mumble: ManFlu (Death Bed) & Pedra Diamonds & the fall of silver?). Rather obvious and not so long ago?

Its best if I let people work out what's going on with Chaarat Gold with NFC and NERIN to prepare DFS for them. Why parties would not be taking profit is beyond me....perhaps I'm myopic! Chinese involvement and cooperation, perhaps there's more profit to be had? Surely there's better out there, Amara? 

Apologies for the brief it has been a manic morning, with Alibaba shorts going brilliantly and in short supply now! Mothercare, FX and gold, I bought some gold at 1217$/oz (Volume is increasing), long that is!

Atb Fraser

Morning Mumble: ManFlu (Death Bed) & Pedra Diamonds & the fall of silver?

Morning, it would appear I've come down with a dreaded lurgy, perhaps its the shock of doing some work! So today it's the odd meeting via cam and recuperation. Its either a lurgy or detoxing is bad for you or worse still I've been infected by a child! As Ian delightfully put it, perhaps I had my food spiked to stop me shorting. I will avoid the graphics...so I have sent my sick note to Ian and Hugo on the basis they can pick up the slack.

Petra Diamonds (PDL) have come up a blinder with a 232 Carat Diamond. With results due on 18th Sept 2014 (brought forward) it could not be better timed for PDL, albeit one will be hoping for more clarification on the capex increases announced and the sale of the 122.52 Carat Cullinan Blue Diamond with the sale process closing on Friday (12th). Admittedly the CAPEX inscrease should improve recoveries. One expects net debt to increase marginally, to around $135M net. with sufficient headroom in agreed borrowings. I'm betting on around £15m for the Blue Diamond as a sales figures, which would assist with cashflow / give sufficient headroom for the changes in capex spending. 

PDL shares have not recovered since the placement of the Awal Bank where the market has not been assisted by the cost overruns and potential 13.2 million shares are only locked in until the end of October. Will there be another sale, I'm told this is unlikely, but unlikely and definitely not are two different things.

Why anyone would want to hold Coal (knife catching) or Hargreaves Services (HSP) is beyond me, but perhaps I'm missing something. Yes profit up which is surprising but the long term trend has not changed, albeit today's results will offer some support to the company longer term. They're significantly better than I expected, so whilst able to muster the energy, I'm closing my short on the HSP (closed 693.4). With the potential return of capital to shareholders, analysts will see this as a positive and turn somewhat bullish in the Preliminary results for the year ended 31 May 2014 its clear the debt is reducing and with the Disposal and Strategy Update offering some hope to shareholders. With all those involved in April 2013 Placing likely to still be holding they're down give or take 10% currently. 

Whilst writing about Fresnillo (FRES)/Hochschild (HOC) this dropped in my inbox from Roger Bade, "Fresnillo (FRES)/Hochschild (HOC) – SELL It is not clear why Hochschild is holding up better than Fresnillo against a falling silver price; it should be the other way round as Hochschild is more heavily leveraged, having higher costs." I have to concur, but more importantly with HOC so heavily leveraged if the key support of $18.98/oz there's some serious problems for HOC. With an all-in sustaining costs of $17.5/oz its not looking good, more so with debt around $260m by my estimates, there's $350m of 7.875% of Senior Notes to be paid for on top of the sustaining costs! Circa. $27.5M in interest alone (adding around a dollar+ an ounce to costs (fag packet). In the current market its hard to justify a price anywhere above 125 pence.

Before the bookkeepers get all upset, I'm aware HOC acquired International Minerals Corporation in 2013 for $271 million and had CAPEX commitments for Inmaculada of $134 million. However this all needs paying for! Those involved in the placing last year (October ish) would be wise to take their 155+ and disappear if Silver loses its vital support. One hopes HOC are hedged to some degree. The market looked to be awaiting clarity on the $18.98/oz silver support with $18.81 curcial. The bottom feeders will be out in due course...wakey wakey HSBC!

I was trying to keep this a Quindell (QPP) free zone, but QPP inform us of the Court judgement won against Gotham City Research. Its interesting there was no defence from Gotham, as such any information they put in the public domain will have been used to assessed the validity of claims and weighed against those of QPP. Due to no-contest I suspect there will be some venting from the longs, shorts and perhaps even those without a position that like to grandstand. Is Non-Contest a win?

Why would Gotham not dispute the claim having had such conviction for their assessment and assertions? Was it down to not being able to afford a defence? Not recognising the authority of the court? If as Gotham assert it was a clear cut case, a lawyer would not have been required to show the facts. The saga will no doubt carry on for sometime...What I do have concern with is those not being accountable and appear to ignore the legal process. Remember, Gotham will be hard pushed to justify an appeal based on "no response and no defence" despite being aware of the matter. Roll on the next twist in the saga, or perhaps further legal actions as the rumour is.

Back to the sick bed!

Atb Fraser

Edit: please see Morning Mumble: Shorts, Savannah Petroleum & all that glitters is not just gold! Commentary on Petra Diamonds (PDL).

Morning Mumble: I CU all the way...BLT pushing with expansion, and CAML hitting the mark!

Am I missing something with AIM? Admittedly it makes no difference to me, but what are companies doing awarding themselves 4%+ of the company based on??? Tower Resources PLC Grant of Options and Exercise of Warrants Only 75M shares at the placing price from Tower Resources PLC Placing, Acquisition and Preliminary Results from the week before. Where else in the world can you get the ability to buy stock at last week’s prices? It would appear the board room of Tower Resources is one of those places! 

The company wants to be very careful, as its these sort of things shareholders are looking at. Imagine if the placees were told...we've got a brilliant company that needs cash, are you interested? Were they at any stage informed that a significant percentage of those monies would be diluted to award "options." to Directors. The event is so material of the mind-set of the company parties would be wise to flip the stock and go elsewhere.

So back to the markets: BHP Billiton's results  are obviously bullish with the 10% headline increase in production. 

So the race is on to force companies out of the market place not only with Iron Ore but Coal as well, with an additional 2Mt's hitting the market despite it being so dire. The fittest companies will survive, but certainly not those overwhelmed with debt. Copper increasing and I suspect revised guidance upwards is on its way with expansion plans. With RIO and BLT's dividend one would be wise to hold them in a long portfolio. 

BLT's news bodes well for RIO (as they weren't as bullish as BLT in their announcement yesterday). In addition to the news from Mongolia that things are progressing at Rio’s Turquoise Hill Says Parties to Seek OT Funding Extension is the Government finally giving clarity on Royalty, Taxes and the like. Turquoise can then be taken out by Rio, the 1700 workers reemployed and everyone's happy in the bliss that is Oyu Tolgoi. We knew back in March that AMEC were advertising for workers, so one assumes this process is further along than the press realise?

We all must welcome Polypipe (PLP) to the market with Admission to Trading on the London Stock Exchange. Will the founders/PE backers run to the door quickly? A quick look over the market shoulder at the Appliance Online (AO.) share price is positive for me. Will they have to change their name to "Insurance Online?" 

So with Fresnillo and Hochschild's announcing yesterday would you be holding silver stocks long? We have Fresnillo coming out with production inline however its higher cost sector friend Hochschild's results yesterday don't elude to much in the way of any positives nor is there much commentary of the Silver Price down 20% on average over the last 12 months, costs will be key and HOC are now limited in their savings. 

HOC announced in March that their costs were around $18.6 per ounce and that was during a year of "savings/costs focus", with the current silver price not leaving much headroom and after the $27+M annualised interest costs on their Senior Notes, there's little left for shareholders. If you're in profit at HOC, you'd be wise to sell up or switch to FRES with costs around the $5.6 per ounce all in, significantly better than HOC. 

Now who'd have thought Tesco would have been cooking on gas today? Would you have been short going into results final results. Tesco have some relief, but it takes no rocket science to realise the three companies have to transform their pricing perception and offerings in light of significant competition. Asda clearly are winning, albeit all appear to be losing between 4-6% of their turnover to the lower priced offerings of Aldi and Lidl. 

The final thought for the day goes to Central Asian Metals 2013 Full Year Results, with 100% of the Kounrad Copper Mine income being attributable from now going forth, the earnings are set to benefit further. With 9 pence per share final dividend, there are not many around AIM doing what they say! The costs per pound are spot on, albeit I see some increase in these going forward at around 5%, the dividend coverage is more than affordable. Currently in at a fully inclusive cost in Kazakhstan is $1.13/lb albeit last year was $0.98/lb (2012).

Atb Fraser