Tuesday 16 September 2014

Morning Mumble: Anyone for a haircut? (Petropavlovsk Plc/POG Holders), Rurelec & No News...

Petropavlovsk updates the market on financing but what will be left for current shareholders? Not a lot I can imagine. Any die hard holders now need to wake up and smell the roses. This had to go the way of Albemarle & Bond based on the same principle. Short it out! during volatility...

Rurelec Trading & Project Update suggests there's nothing new but with "progress." The company was a sell post taking profit on the basis there were items that should have been disclosed in terms of value of the claim. The listing for Santiago Stock Exchange has been put on hold, yet again. So there was concerns about the AIM Listing and now it's pending the completion of the share stakes in the Parinacota and Illapa projects.

Rurelec now have a material risk due to yet more delays which are likely to impact on longer-term value but there's something not sitting right in terms of delays (again) on all counts. Trading in Argentina is up and repayment of loans is a positive, albeit no indication of revenues. When someone has the time perhaps they can update me on the meaning of the following, "Rurelec is exploring one or more major alliances in Latin America to allow the Company to accelerate its growth without the need to ask existing shareholders for further capital." One or more? Am I reading that right...the market will react positively, when ironically it should be conservative. 

The Chinese have started their pollution stance with the ban on high ash, low quality coal. Well what a surprise, with the impending doom of low quality iron ore on the mills and a clean up in progress its not going to assist the producers of these finite items. With the price dropping to predictable levels the market has finally concluded coal is not the new black (I know I'm sorry!).

In the no news section, Wolf Minerals to Draw Down £75M Senior Debt Finance Facilities the shrewd will be buying over time off lows on this stock. Even allowing for a market correction on commodities, WLFE may just be exempt.

Ophir Energy Plc Silenus East-1 Well Result and Resources Update means theres finally some good news for the OPHR share price which has been dogged since the middle of 2013. Due to time constraints I missed the largest oil holding announcement on Hurriance Energy yesterday with their Post-Well Analysis of the Lancaster Appraisal Well 205/21a-6 coming in better than the market expected. Continuing with the positive oil theme, Ithaca Energy Inc. Successful Flow Test on Fourth Stella Development Well which has been completed for a speedy hook up once the floating production facility is in place...I envisage there to be some positives out of the block on IAE and now is certainly a time to be reviewing a buy consideration. For myself, thanks to the absent Indiana confirming he is indeed alive, its time to consider longs.

In the humour section, a) will Mr W start emailing his wife instead of me. As much as I like to be told I was looking so hot in the morning, there's a few differences between his wife and I! b) Can someone please advise me what "Provisional" audited results for the year ended 30 June 2014 are? Albeit their all in cash costs is better than expected at $1,124. One assumes the debt will be paid down improving returns for shareholders? At at Market cap of £250M that's some multiple of earnings, supported poorly by the dividend. One hopes South Africa's inference of greater Black Ethnic Empowerment (BEE) suggestions on the BLT spin offs doesn't erode any potential value in Gold and Platinum companies further. 

No time to cover the Crest Nicholson Holdings plc (Crest Nicholson) Interim Management Statement for the period from 1st May 2014 to 5th September 2014. Any surprises in light of the Berkeley Gp.hld (BKG) interims two weeks ago! The "normal" appears to be returning across the sector and was a blatant and evident short. The market is getting slower and slower to think for itself! This time its not "a return to normal" its a slight moderation...give over please!

Anyone following Ocado? Where's that Ocado buyer note again! (Please remember sarcasm).

Atb Fraser

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