It was a strange day yesterday, with the markets being predictable the blog came second to the opportunities presented. What was pleasing to see was the common-sense factor has kicked in. For the Doomberg merchants, one should have spotted Iron Ore Seen Slumping to $75 by CLSA as Global Glut Widens. It’s more than possible and with the bond raising (and attempted raising) by certain Chinese Builders & Real Estate Companies, it comes as no surprise they're revising guidance see: Country Gardens (this Blog) for the ability to pay debt.
Will the likes of International Mining & Infrastructure Corporation plc (IMIC) be able to pay what they promised those Afferro Mining Inc. holders that 'went all the way. Nevermind the bonds already issues, I envisage some haircuts somewhere...akin to what is likely to happen with POG (Petropavlovsk).
Ashtead Group (AHT) shorts are getting torched, for with 1st Quarter Results not exactly assisting their positions. It was surprising to hear how many retailers were short on this stock, one assumes they've got conviction on this or desperation?
The ramptastic fan club will be at it with the Horse Hill drilling update for the 234 AIM companies involved (one hopes you know I'm exaggerating there!). Do not bother reading as Stellar Resources (STG) Horse Hill update along with Regency Mining Horse Hill update; along with Alba Mineral Resources plc Horse Hill update; along with Solo Oil Plc Horse Hill update; along with UK Oil & Gas Investments PLC and FINALLY Doriemus PLC. Now I'm not one to knock developments or excitement, I have exposure but one can't help but wonder if parties are getting ahead of themselves!
With Circle Oil's Interim Results I elected to take some of the capital off the table today, revenues (production down), costs up operational (drilling) and debt becoming more costly (leverage), I feel that Tunisia is not priced in but in the absence of the markets expectations there could be some punishment on this stock. Post any update from Tunisia I shall either buy back (perhaps higher) but operating on a lower risk exposure its beneficial. Having had near 70% rise, its rude not to take profit.
Having been long on Andes Energia PLC (AEN) with their Columbia update I have elected to revise whether I close my positions (apart from waiting Ian's guidance on Oil!). I'm a novice in respect of most oilers, on the basis its better to speak to someone that understands these things.
There's gossip of a major shorter positioning themselves in Just Eat (JE.) The stock is illiquid so there could be many a reason for this, albeit these Formats I dislike with a % of sales going to the company surely one wants to keep customers paying locally in cash, visa or even PayPal? Uber App being punished as a result of their success... Uber app banned in Germany and gives fresh hope to angry British cabbies (Independent Article (I know!)).
Oil down (no surprises as production is being ramped up almost everywhere), Iron Ore stabilising (for now) and PGM's being punished slightly. Gold's $3B trade a few months ago looks a very clever move in retrospective. With the price becoming very predictable according to volume. Mining.com Quoting Ole Hansen, chief commodity strategist at Denmark's Saxo Bank. Hedging and negativity look the blame, one expects more volatility to follow with intraday trading the soupe du jour!
Atb Fraser
Fraser- Hi again.
ReplyDeleteRe Horse Hill- I reckon the first thing that drill will hit is a pile of old nags bones surely the name is a give away here... no doubt they will strike oil weekly given the 6 targets and this well will make the North Sea look like a duster in due course. I have some RGM so my JR Ewing hat is on the way and a downpayment has been made on the 500,000 acre ranch ..... what could possibly go wrong.... one smart muppet has added up the COS (chance of success) figures for all 6 targets, come up with 88% then forgot to divide by 6-- an 88% chance is too good to miss so Ive flogged a kidney to up my stake :-)) And they will all RNS every few feet on the way down...
Re Amara Mining- yes, a nice project at Yaoure, they can now file away the other dodgy assets they bought and didn't really assess and if the Q1 2015 PFS should be great and the project fairly simple to fund, that's if the big boys don't move in beforehand. I have been looking at FDI (Firestone Diamonds) and I can see some great upside from 37.5p, despite the warrants as the funding is all done and dusted. They may even stop breaking up the big diamonds, which always seems silly to me. Not in yet but I cant see any reason to dither about here. They have some great neighbours (Gem and Namakwa) too.
Iron ore does look like a race to the bottom, with RIO and BLT knocking it out at $20/t and thus even Vale and certainly the Africans cant compete, so some mothballing will have to take place. This isn't an option for those that have major debts that need servicing, so the future looks bleak for AMI and LOND etc unless the trend changes. BZM is a basket case and ZIOC will be kept by GLEN no doubt on life support until the market turns too.
Cheers. The Leggie