Friday 29 August 2014

The Afternoon Preamble: Providence Resources (PVR) & Lansdowne Oil & Gas; Churchill Mining (CHL) and CPP Group (CPP).

Good Afternoon, it was going to be a reply Leggie, but there's so much going on and pre-close down for the weekend it was wiser to make a full post.

Afren was a good trade Leggie (for now), Intra-trades were the leader of the day. If you were following my belated commentary on FTML the other day you'll note what happened to most AIM Oilers today, with PVR and Lansdowne Oil making predictable moves. The echoes of a farm out are unsurprising in terms of rumour so one will await an update from the company on progress in due course.

Thank you D for being the CHL items to my attention, perhaps as Leggie eluded to there will be a change in Indonesian sentiment see below:

Churchill Mining PLC & Planet Mining Pty Ltd vs. Republic of Indonesia Document Inspection

There appears to be some gamesmanship happening with objections about delays for the sake of three days, however I am sure the Tribunal are wise to this!

Regarding supermarkets, I have no short positions as of this afternoon. I was trying to evaluate if there was a further fall due, but as I did not have am immediate belief I elected to close with equity only in Morrison's currently for the belief that it will be taken out (3-4% negative currently).

It was interesting to read that CPP have had a deadline (30th August 2014) (FCA Link) put on the claims for compensation. How this transpires and whether the FCA doesn't have a change of tone is another thing but in my view unlikely. What is interesting is Martin Lewis has requested an extension to this date. Now I'm not one to Money Saving Expert, or the benefits to retailers, however how can one justify an extension when they've been so prolific in publicising it. If the argument is that parties/ex-customers are unaware then I would suggest that is taking the proverbial a little. CPP's claims as of today are: CPP's half yearly report today. This may be a slow recovery for the higher risk taker or alternatively avoid; policy's down around 1M already compared to the same period. 

Finally, for those on a meter, Ofwat draft decisions keep bills down, should enable one to buy a bottle of one this weekend if you want to spend it now! One would be wise to appraise their utility holdings.

Have a good weekend, plenty of reading for me as I get up to speed.

Atb Fraser

N.B. The volumes in Sylvania Platinum (SLP) are very surprising, with dividend out to 2015 it is certainly raising questions about what is going on! Perhaps the appearance of a new presentation means it can be put down to PR/IR for the company, albeit there was rumour of a buyout. This I firmly believe is BS...but for once only have an equity position in this company and am well aware of the risks in terms of South Africa, board costs and the structure, which if adjusted could mean a quarterly dividend for holders instead of salary costs. One perhaps for me to discuss at another time. 

P.S. Apologies for not proof reading.

2 comments:

  1. Fraser and D- thanks for the CHL update- I did have today down as the inspection date but I didn't realise the nitpicking re dates that meant that the court had to impose this date- Ive read the rules re viewing the documents and Im a bit worried they don't ban the ROI team from taking a flamethrower in with them :-)) My view is that if the legal team report back to their masters that the documents are in order and the outlook re the court is bleak, some form of settlement will be put forward before the end of the year. Given investor sentiment, I still see £1 per share being a nice round figure, and if CHL settle around this level I guess us punters will end up with 60/70p. Still with a binary case, a lot could go wrong before we see the cash here.

    Nice to see the PVR,LOGP moves- LOGP seems to be in catch up mode, given the run from PVR wasn't really matched by LOGP and they are both tied to the barrel that is named Barryroe. Im long in both, patient and have finish tranche buys and it looks like a mid tier that is farming in, so good luck to all involved.

    Cheers. The Leggie

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  2. Fraser exceptional coverage on tesco not 1 other analyst spotted that!

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