Morning Mumble: LGO, seriously! & Ken's Mare (KMR) did you really expect anything better ++ The Chirpy Edition!

Its not till you read an RNS like that of today's Leni Gas & Oil (LGO) (Disc: No current holding having taken all profit and equity out). LGO was never a management bet and those that have followed the story of LGO's dire performance prior to Trindad will understand why.

Leni Gas & Oil (Founder Steps Down) is no surprise as the majority of people will not back the entity. Just because of the changes, the investment case above the quality of the assets does not necessarily improve. So ignoring the commentary certain Directors made about Mediterranean Oil & Gas now Rockhopper (reviewing & shorts closed) and the fact the number of shares has gone from 919,254,965 in November 2010 to 2,668,195,353 shares as of July 2014. would one be stating…

“…It is no exaggeration to say that David Lenigas has made an enormous contribution to the business throughout his tenure, and we wish him all the best with his other business ventures. On behalf of the Board and all the team, I would like to thank David for his contribution and for his unswerving commitment to LGO. I am sure his entrepreneurial spirit will live on in the Company as we seek to continue the growth trajectory of the last year." One shall let the reader decide…

When considering the above one surely cannot forget the Spanish Sale (or not or was or is) or the alleged affordability of the legal case against MOG. The legal debacle by total coincidence had a placing during the cost assessment process and award despite previous assurances of it being affordable etc...We'll reserve judgement on the acquisition of the Fram Exploration (Trinidad) Limited Trinity-Inniss Field & £7m placing that capped out the SP in July. Alas goodbye David Leni-Gas and welcome to a new image for the company, oh what do you say to LGO instead of Leni Gas & Oil?

Staying with a chirpy tune, Kenmare Resources (KMR) Half-Yearly Results today…now save for a white knight that would have to be desperate, debt is $349.632m down from $358.519m the previous year (2013) but the APR is “only” 9.2%. So when considering their cash of $37.3 KMR ($67.5 million 2013) have net debt of $312.332m (2014) compared to Net debt of $291.019, in 2013. Yes you’ve read it correctly, Net Debt has gone up only $21ish m.

You’ll note KMR have restructured the debts etc…to allow for what one should really call a Wonga Rollover or Chinese Real Estate Loan in 2019! Will Iluka Resources be betting on recovering Ilmenite prices? With the Debt costs, production & company situation one finds it very hard to justify any significant valuation. Perhaps someone will step up and surprise us all! Iluka have time on their hands with KMR's $37m cash they are looking more and more like a rescue placing assuming parties are supportive of this and suddenly do not want to revisit Iluka’s offer (read as bite their hand off). Certainly appears Iluka are holding the cards, perhaps a scare of 16.5p a share would tip the scales?

On to positives, one assumes Afren have a clearer picture of what has gone on so are able to update the market on Fridaywith their results. Will those of us seeing the buying opportunity be validated in their assessment of the situation on the tank after the suspension of directors?

Further positives in terms of my positions in Foxtons were validated with the half yearly results out today. The market reacted accordingly with the slow down in sales and cooling of the London market thanks to the new affordability structure. Will this impact further down the line, more than likely. With forecasts of £180M in revenue for the full year, one cannot help but wonder if this is too rich! One would be wise to follow Blackrock!

Its amusing to see Lonmin’s response on the speculation about closing shafts…. Statement on Press Speculation stating that no decision has been taken “as of yet.” So with that in mind, do they have many other options? One would not want to be long on LMI save for trading opportunities.

Finally, ECR Minerals Plc might have something of value with the MGA’s release from administration it is expected by the Company that MGA will possess tax losses estimated to total approximately A$80 million. The tax losses surely have more value than their other assets?

More time required on the Paragon Diamonds deal today and due to yet more meetings, will have to wait to more closely at Transfer of Convertible Loan Agreement & Board Changes.

Having just come back from Hols and getting back into the swing of things with meetings and training it will be sporadic as I attempt to avoid working past 11am!

Atb Fraser

Edited: to adjust currency value from £ to $ & typo.