Good Morning, last night’s antics were a pleasure its not
often losing money comes with such hilarity. We had an evening at the casino
last night and to give you an idea of my ability to lose I shall cover the
entire evening with...everyone won save for I! It got to a point you
were assured of winning by betting against me! A pleasure though...and don't
forget your passports folks otherwise it’s a return taxi trip for the passport!
On to the wonders of the market, this is my last blog for
two weeks (ish), the name will be changing in that time as well so please mark
the other one (above). I'm taking some pride in the fact the unique visitors
(excluding bots & search engines) is up to a level I didn't think would
happen (you all must be desperate!). This is despite the promise of the LGO
litigation coverage, for which I shall keep mention until it happens!
Its surprising the ArcelorMittal (MT) have only just reduced
their guidance on profits by near $1b and I suspect with write-downs it'll be a
lot lower; the market were late to realise it would be worse than forecast
earnings (no joke and very poor analytical skills by the buy
fraternity!); the dividend huggers may want to reappraise this company quickly! ArcelorMittal reports second quarter 2014 and half year 2014
results (read the pain) albeit they did pay a good % of debt down
they're targeting $15B in debt....
MT have an assumption for Iron Ore of $105/t for the full
year 2014 (from $120/t previously) implying a second-half average of $100/t.
Yes, with rose tinted spectacles one can see $105 being full year, but when
Chinese prices near $96-$97 (the latter 3 month delivery), I'm unsure how they
come to balance their guidance even allowing for 2/3rd's of MT's business being
European focused. With the oversupply (increasing production) coming from the
majors, ArcelorMittal guidance may prove too high even allowing for the
revisions. With their guidance including capex costs $/t for Liberia not being
below $100/t this is not going to assist (with Capex increasing there as well). MT are
forecasting apparent steel consumption (ASC) growth in Europe of 2014 of
3-4%, US 5% and China 3-3.5%. The only figure I currently agree with is China's , but will post-holidays review this. (expect the majors to follow
suit with revisions in due course / depreciation in share prices.
Often parties put too much interest in Director share
purchases, unless they’re noteworthy consider a) if a director doesn’t pay fair
market price there’s a risk b) if they’re options are massively in the money (at the award or after significant delcines in the SP) consider there’s a risk c) if they’re free options that director would not have
any motivation to achieve (certainly true of AIM save for a few exceptions).
However today we have the Anglo American Mr
Peter Whitcutt, a PDMR, has today sold 73,419 ordinary shares at a price of
£16.205 per share. £1,189,754.90 is a significant signal to the market. I’m unsure
of the current price but lets see if the market pays attention as well.
We welcome Savannah Petroleum SAVP
First Day of Dealings on AIM, for which there needs to be clarity on the
licenses as per my previous post…one
to watch currently.
What are Red Rock Resources doing? They have the rights to acquire
100% of the issued capital of Australian cloud computing service and
infrastructure provider Cloud Lands Digital Fortress Pty Ltd ("Cloud
Lands") Resources to clouds…Review required.
Afren continuing its climb, so have elected to take all
profits on spreadbets (being the larger holding) and let equity/cfd ride.
Atb Fraser
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