Morning Mumble: Chinese Property Bonds &....wonder will never cease, oil revisions downwards.

China's overseas property investment to reach $20 bln in 2015-study As Kaisa defaults, Goldman sees value in the property builders. The property slowdown is forcing the insurers and larger Chinese developers to diversify their holdings to an international hedge. Its wise to consider this the top of the property cycle as the leverage is unlikely to be paid with internal growth faltering.

Li put it simply , "there's just so much on the market a buyer is being deterred from the off ings". Li I am sure meant offerings but you get the idea. Li's been tracking the property market since the clamp down on corruption in China and the charts are staggering, dropping almost identically from 18 March 2013 to today. Surely the Chinese housing situation isn't directly linked to corruption that the dropped started 4 days after Xi Jinping became president?!

Today, Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA) announced there 4th Quarter and Full Year 2014 Unaudited Results and with it a very logical  update balancing growth and returns to address the sector issues they are experiencing was the license to print money for those short on the news. RDSA's prudence in their sales was more fortune than well-timed divestments. 

RDSA buybacks are scrapped (wisely) the investors (long only) are now the ones to take the pain, with earnings significantly under pressure and limited further divestments, I have to wonder if RDSA will be on the acquisition trail very soon, there is some very well-placed gossip of a very large acquisition. Over to UBS to get the ball rolling. Over to the Industrial Engineering components to react appropriately. 

Glencore (GLEN) appear to not know what to do with their coal operations. Glencore considers cuts at South Africa coal unit Optimum, having tried closing its Australian operations for 3 weeks, why did they bother opening it again? Now they're considering South Africa (RSA). 

GLENs asset classes should be considered tier 2. Over to GLEN to meander through with an inconsistent strategy. Had GLEN had the understanding of the market like they should do, the only benefit was to the short-term price where as soon as the news of the restart came the price gave up any support. We'll blame China for the thermal coal prices, rather than the entire change in global demand. The one saviour may be that RSA could be compelled to buy / take these struggling assets off miners hands to shore up the ailing economy, with the Rand like to depreciate further there's going to be a few bargains*.

For those whom dislike the shorters, they'd be wise to check the prices of PDL (Petra Diamonds) and Gem Diamonds (GEMD), the market has awoken to the fact the sale of Antwerp Diamond Bank to a Real Estate company (Yinren Group) didn't go as planned (a year ago). 

Of great significance, Shanghai, Hong Kong shares fall as China launches new probe into margin trading China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) perhaps have found something in the alleged routine checks. 

Kaz Minerals Q4 production report from Roger Bade gets the chocolate teapot award. For myself, you'd be rude if you didn't agree there is no guidance on currency or costs. The market has to look over its shoulder at the all in net cash costs of $2.04/lb (not all in costs circa $2.75/lb EMC estimate) of the interims last August. With prices stabilising and likely to appreciate over the next 12 months, save for more economic woes and the Greek issues, plus Bozshakol Copper Project and Aktogay Copper Mine coming on stream there should be an element of knife catching now. 

Kaz's debts should not be ignored with the Chinese Development Bank (CDB) funding there's room for discussions. Kaz location to China is obviously strategic for both parties, time to start considering the positives.

Atb Fraser

Morning Mumble: Wafers...treading on thin ice &

Good Morning,

Hanergy Thin Film Power Group will be in the press a lot over coming months be it a squeeze or drop. The FT runs with Breakneck growth of Hanergy raises question. It’s a different twist on the repeat in the solar cycle for China. There's been significant consolidation, but do the earnings and receivables having a similar whiff about them. It’s a tightly held stock with the founder holding circa 70% of the stock, 5% out on loan, there could be a difficulty covering any short positions in a further squeeze.  

The article does not go into the trading elements on the market, Hanergy's (HNGSF) price has appreciated by a significant short squeeze. A stock which most traders have been waiting on the side lines to about turn and ride down circa 80%. 

For those not short-selling of any form HNGSF is one for the packs, its already at a pivotal point and the shorters have (please note past tense) clambered over themselves to obtain stock. This stock is worth no more than 1.30HKD on a good day and the FT will no doubt be reporting in due course about its share price movements in more detail. 

The accounts are not the only issue with HNGSF. Would HNGSF like to clarify what development grants are within the accounts including any Government payments? HNGSF's position may also be fuelled by the closure of positions that had been previously rolled over in the Chinese brokers now under review and suspended from taking new clients? Of course the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) inspections will find no issues at all...but with Shanghai and Shenzhen holding around $175B of leverages shorts it does not bode well if the industry got a regulatory slap. 

HNGSF as a listed solar companies is unusual, due to its HKEx  listing. You do not have to be too shrewd to find a way on to the train. Normally OTC stock via NYSE, or alternative derivatives but its globally available via even the most basic retail spread-betting portals. 

One illiquid delayed trade that has been been good for long until the trend now being at significant risk is the CSOP CES China A80 ETF (SEHK). Fairly simple product and one that mirrors Chinese Pref A Equities. With Chinese industrial profits falling, the market is falling back/stagnating until further stimulus is announced. 

In the land of the AIM, it’s amusing to see the markets pricing in so backward with Mosman Oil and Gas (MSMN). For those readers now aware of MSMN, (EMC: Up the creek), if you know a long holder, it might be wise to lock their drinks cabinet and submit them for drug testing. Is there any reason why this stock is above 2 pence? If you are wishing to email about MSMN please don't the sympathy departed in December 2014. 

We have another, Bagir Group (BAGR) (EMC Bagir Group May 2014 Sarcasm) today with their trading update , which comes with no surprises. Ever since the IPO the warnings have come out, the revisions downwards and the company I suspect will at best break-even. Listing at 56 pence, there's not much further for them to go. (Disc: no position now). There should be some serious questions asked about the timing of the BAGR listing and when they knew about the material downturn in trading so shortly after listing, from memory 1 month after listing a warning was out.

The disparity between Brent and WTI is not without sense, with various opinions going round about $50/bbl being the new ceiling or floor. If $50/bbl is the new floor, how is WTI trading at $45.47/bbl and Brent $49.06/bbl. 

Iron ore really starting to put the boot in on the listened smaller entities, those with higher leverage FMG (Fortescue Metals Group) and Atlas Iron (AGO: ASX). Whilst it was with some hilarity someone attempted to point out why AGO's a buy based on dividend yield. If there is one? Christmas was your exit, you've missed the boat!

JMAT (Johnson Matthey) today give the Q3 trading statement. The refinery additives and diagnostic division is going to come under further pressure being reliant on the petrochemical industry. The industry is currently sick as a dock and expenditure being scaled back, why would JMAT be exempt?

The outlook for the car and haulage industry varies but the majors guiding to a decline in production of circa 1% and as a result a drop in earnings, stagnation is likely for JMAT at best until the cycle changes. The technology premium for JMAT should be under review. Emission Control Technologies the kingpin of the company is reliant on on industries peaking or little growth. There seems to be an echo of EMC just getting it write (scuse the pun) EMC JMAT above its money and under pressure. One could argue there’s no viable benefit in holding JMAT until oil is 40% up…JMAT still missing their AAL (Anglo American) fees! 

Little time for the other items...

Atb Fraser

Thank you for the well-wishers for my daughter, she's not playing again today and didn't sleep well. Being off on business soon I hope she recovers from the lurgies. 

Morning Mumble: Anglo Pacific belated...

Good Morning,

My daughter's bug impacting on the this mornings items slightly, where she wanted to sit and comforted with honey and lemon. So the world stopped for 5 hours and now back to normality whilst she sleeps or until she wakes.

A few weeks ago EMC Anglo Pacific Isua license & General Nice Development Limited was announced by all and sundry but not the royalty holder. Whether they had additional news or not, it would have been sensible to have updated the market about any discussions. If APF's Isua Project lien was on the title (the norm), irrespective of ownership, APF's royalty should have been good. APF belatedly update on the Isua Project being sold to General Nice Development. 

It should be noted the lack of a reversal in the $15M (write-down) and the absence of any impairment for the loss of $30M for a change in ownership. Anglo Pacific's assets are a play on a bull market, the price "looks" about right for now (but). Investors may have their patience significantly tested if Rio Tinto has a change of mind as APF's fortunes are expectant on the performance of Kestrel  (update 21st January 2015). It does show there's some potential but APF has not exactly warmed to the investors. Judging by Rio's intentions not to lose market share APF will benefit. Its looking like its time to turn just a little positive on APF.

As a seller of GEM Diamonds (GEMD) yesterday (EMC) they give a Trading Update for Q4 2014, with deterioration in prices, near 18-24% pending on view. The contraction in part is a 45-62% reduction in financing by the Antwerp Diamond Bank (ADB*) that seeks to exit the sector. With buyers being sought and opportunity being seen by investors this contraction is likely to go through but improve with June/July 2015 *(EMC forecasts) likely for a fuller recovery; save for significant changes in global economics and Russia.  

GEMD sees this trending going forward into Q1 2015. With the slack yet to be filled by ADB* it will take some time for a recovery in finances for the market liquidity, with a risk the traders preferring the absence of speculation with greater upside from the lower prices. The concern being that Petra Diamonds (PDL) seems to not consider the ADB exit of  the mark as significance. One would expect them to be aware of this as they have an office in the International Diamond Council (IDC) Building in Antwerp.

With circa 70-80% of diamond firms having accounts with ADB its wonder prices held up so well. An ending of tradition that's last since 1934, why KBC Bank N.V (the parent) couldn't find a buyer for the portfolio and ADB as a whole.

First Quantum Mining (FQM) update on its production and sales for the three months and year ended December 31, 2014 and production and capital expenditure outlook for the full year 2015. Over to FQM's First Quantum's CEO and Chairman Philip Pascall, 

"The financial and commodity markets have started 2015 with high volatility on concerns about the global economy, demand for natural resources and companies' liquidity positions. As a result, our share price, along with others in the sector, has been materially affected. While we have high confidence in the mid to long-term outlook for copper, we are mindful of the current concerns.  As always, we pay close attention to the Company's financial position to make sure there is sufficient flexibility despite having an active project development pipeline.  At Cobre Panama, we have substantially reduced the planned capital expenditure for 2015 to $600 million without compromising the project's progress. We also maintain strong and supportive relationships with our principal banks that have worked with us throughout the development of the Company and through several economic and commodity cycles,"

Zambia's Kansanshi's mine (FQM 80%/20% Zambia Consolidated Copper Mines (ZCCM) is still hampered by smelter capacity. Things are progressing with first pour at Sentinel (also Zambia) and forecasted production of 150-200k/t's later this year (circa August). We'll shudder at the costs per lb which must loss making at the current price. 

Then in December (2014), the atmospheric leach tank at failure at Ravensthorpe (Nickel) (FQM 100% Western Australia) doesn't bode well either. Quite how one scales back $600m at Cobra Panama (copper 80% FQM/20% Korea Panama Mining Corp (KPMC)) without compromising the projects progress questions the previous expenditure. Its wise to be picky, but common-sense is never absent from investments (certainly not here), then why were they spending the extra $600M? With production on the decline in the final quarter, sales in copper were only modestly lower than the previous year (consistent with global trend). At $2.54/lb for copper, the market will ignore the woes and buy into the stock. 

Iron ore depreciating and Fortescue Metals Group (FMG) (Why iron ore won’t rebound any time soon). having a moment of carnage before recovering on the ASX with Rio and BLT having the knife put to them as well. With the price well dropping in futures a further 5% the market might need to revise price expectations. Can you convert bulk shipping into a floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) facility? Please note the sarcasm. The FT ML fans will of course prefer Neil's commentary on the topic Iron ore falls to lowest since May 2009 on weak China demand. Implications for steel anyone?

Goldman I don't think expected their short-term bullish comments on gold to be so short with the drop. Goldman Sachs See Short-Term Strength In Gold, Remains Long-Term Bearish.

Who'd have thought Afren at near 6 pence...anyone!?!?! Yes, proudly here EMC: Evening Bolt On: Afren & MPI + Alleged CU Chaos (Investments). Today's update validating some shrewd positions with a Review of Afren's Capital Structure out today its reading like a slow motion train wreck. 

The no news but sensible decision by United Utilities (UU.) to accept the final determination. With the RPI target on dividend being a comfort to the dull goliath investment funds wanting income, the price is about right. Although the wise will have under review due to the appreciation over the last 12 months. Private Equity and Sovereign Wealth Funds will now be able to cast an accurate rule of the likes of UU. and SSE.

Atb Fraser

Antwerp Diamond Bank (ADB*) is owned by KBC Bank N.V and unlisted, EPIC attributable for the use within the article and not associated or inferred as being to another company. 

Pm bolt-on: Duncan Fox New Year's Direction.

EMC: Duncan Fox's Tesco call & a little bit more to say. Having sat on my hands for near a month when I found out. Its with great pleasure that Duncan has moved over to Bloomberg Business Intelligence covering consumers and retailers. So one hopes you'll see Duncan's work around, making sometimes brave calls but giving honest and common-sense opinion. All the best in the new role Duncan with circa 30 years under his belt he will certainly be an asset.

Atb Fraser

Morning Mumble: a euro thrown across the bow of Bourgeoisiem, Petra Diamond's (PDL), GEMD + Grocers

Good Morning, 

There shall be a few sore heads in Greece today and Troika's headache is just starting. Fear not, you will not find the in-depth implications or thesis on Greece leaving the Euro here.  The risks are somewhat being ignored, the outcome for the rest of Europe may be more significant than the press and Government's acknowledge. Simply put, if one feels like a kicked dog in the corner, even the most placid of people get up, fight or leave.

You'd expect nothing less to read the risk aware view here. The EU would be wise to gauge whether Greece is part of a trend that is spreading in popularity across Europe. With the increase in extreme views in the UK and across Europe there is something that the EU isn't addressing that is causing discontent. Greece, as the potential bellwether of voters across Europe warning. After all, there's a little bit of extremism in all and it requires groups to create trends for people to jump on the bandwagon and turn the switch on for the moderates. Examples being UKIP, where the other UK parties are adopting moderate attempts at similar policies.

Greece may have been the master of its own destiny and financial distress, now it would appear they are again, BBCAnti-austerity Syriza wins Greek election. The global assessors will ignore why Syriza has won this election (via coalition) and focus on the financial implications for the EU. 

The Greek elections are being misunderstood by the markets. Greece is blamed for the slide in the Euro, oil and commodity prices and not the US inventory levels being the highest in 85 years nor Saudi's views or business as usual. Greece should be viewed as a potential indicator of political fashions and trends. This is likely to have greater implications than any financial damage and benefits the European Disunion. 

The jury for gold appreciation is out for the time being on the Greek elections with the implications in oil already being misunderstood. The flight to safety as Syriza get their feet under the table by renegotiation and face-saving of greater importance than financial prudence. Surely years of pain for a stronger economy over the longer-term is better; we have prime examples of excessive spending under Labour Governments in the UK. A quick perusal of historic UK government borrowing will clarify the position.

It would be wise to revisit EMED's projections before spending all those gains on the final permitting being obtained. With copper catching a cold in Asia with little support for base metals (absence of long speculation) trading at circa $2.46/lbs, EMED's return for investors now needs to be considered appropriately. The long-term view being if they can survive this market and minimise costs now they're likely to go from strength to strength. Cashflow will be welcome but how much of it remains the question. 

As Roger Bade points out this morning the price assumptions in the Technical Report from 2013 (here) might need a few revisions. To quote EMED (Page 9 Tech Report), "A copper spot price assumption of $3.50/lb used in the projects economics analysis compares to relative current market copper prices of $3.70lbs ($8,200/t) and a trailing 5 year average above $3.00/lb.” 

When reading through the technical report to net present value (NPV) if one was to apply a 12.5% discount, the project would be currently losing money at sub $2.50/lbs. Estimates (my own), suggest it would be better to increase to 9m/t p.a. and raise a full $254M, to fund through to larger expansion and reduced costs that "could" be completed by end of year two. The funding would give viability to the long investors and transparency. The relevance of copper has an impact on the secured loan facility that was able to paid in copper subject to the price being above $6,613.86/t, although there's still time for the market to recover it would be wise to acknowledge these risks. Over to the market to be despondent on this…5m/t's is simply not viable in the current market and outlook.

Anglo American (AAL) shareholders have finally seen sense, in fact the whole sector has...can we see some realistic pricing to entice longer-term shareholders into the stock. Over to Credit Suisse with their preferred AAL and RIO (Rio Tinto) for a little review? We hope AAL can find some muppet for their Dawson and Foxleigh mines l. With Q4 results due 28th Jan, we can look forward to something spectacular. 

Petra Diamonds (PDL) have announced what the market knew in terms of prices softening but maintaining a common-sense. It's hoped the dividend will provide some hope for the stock, but this will be unlikely today. No matter what you call it, it’s a revision downwards, over to Awal Bank SA to give it another kicking...with 13.2 million shares needing a home. As a result of PDL, I decided to sell Gem Diamonds (GEMD). 

For those supermarket/grocer investors and the people wishing to expose shorting funds, it would be wise to read the Delhaize Group 2014 revenues and preliminary results. Turnaround stories in grocers are possible as shown by Delhaize Group (Euronext Brussels: DELB) & listed NYSE if you want to play Euro/USD arb. DELB was a prime shorting candidate a 3+ years ago, it's now recovered, with results coming in strong today the longs in the recovery are benefiting. With Europe likely to be the indicator of how grocers recover it would be wise to follow a few including Carrefour. Roble S.A. yet again having a nice coup back in May 2012 (See: EMC Short Sellers) 

Carrefour could just be coming in to play, Les Echoes (The Moulin family owners of Galeries Lafayette increasestake in Carrefour to 9.5%) and the English version, via Reuters. Whether the Moulin family increase their stake further is another question. They say no others have a differing view. 

With most aware of the Igas Energy debacle, Statement re Finance Facility, there's a gossip of some large bets going in! Better late than never...

Atb Fraser

Morning Mumble: CU under pressure in Asia and China, WAND (cashflow warning?), ENQ (the Coup) and Wolf (corrected)! + Food deflation is officially here!

Good Morning,

A brief one from me today with the luxury of time not being afforded this morning. People should organise meetings well in advance, instead of at 10pm the night before!

Asia and China is seeing higher volumes of copper, the perception is this is likely to be shorts, however it may actually be hedging for the larger boys, the three (Red Kite, GLEN and Trafigura), and the consumers of the commodity. Trading $2.55/lbs or $5621.78/t so just a smidge lower but volumes are up...panic stations for those over-exposed with quite a few bets going on for $2.11/lbs or $4673.79/t. Why $2.11 is confusing but perhaps time will tell. 

Having been short on WANdisco (WAND) from some higher ground, there's perhaps a reason to review this and jump on the bandwagon again. WANdisco's proposed placing really says the cashflow is not there. Its worth some analysis as WAND may not have the size to be viable on their own. Perhaps, if rumours are correct WAND should have accepted the offer earlier last year. 

Wolf(WLFE) Wolfe Minerals building activities update shows things are going along swimmingly. With commissioning for March 2015 and production due in August/September 2015, the appetite for this stock should progress. The Chinese market in tungsten down to circa $291/289 APT (Ammonium Para-tungstate) will give Europe an indicator of next month’s prices. 

Enquest (ENQ) today have update the market of their 'resilience' with trading and operations update showing the covenants have been reset. With rumours of a fundraiser being around for a month now, with little appetite previously, will ENQ be pressing that button now? I doubt it...the market may just reprice ENQ by Monday. Over to ENQ: Additional Information

Funding. In 2013, EnQuest entered into a revolving credit facility ('RCF') of up to $1.2 billion committed, plus a $500 million accordion feature. In light of recent low oil prices and in order to provide flexibility for EnQuest's capital investment programme, the RCF lending banks have agreed to relax the existing credit facility covenants. The net debt / EBITDA covenant has been increased to 5 times and the ratio of financial charges to EBITDA is reduced to 3 times, both until mid-2017. As at 31 December 2014, EnQuest's net debt was approximately $1.0 billion.

2014 production, revenue and EBITDA. EnQuest achieved provisional production for 2014 at the top end of its guidance range, 28,267 Boepd, up 17% on 2013. Revenue is expected to exceed $950 million and EBITDA is expected to be in the range of $530 million to $580 million.

ENQ with the appreciation of oil (as should be considered) was creating greater downside risk than upside. The disappointment being I was unable to get out of one position. So the Atlas Iron holders can cheers as all the profit disappeared saved only from a loss by the tighter spread from a loss. Will reappraise...a very good coup for ENQ. 

Food deflation is being seen by Premier Foods (PFD) trading update, worth a read whether you have a position or not. 

Atb Fraser

PM Bolt On: FX QE ECB KMR...Boron (not boring), what a steal!

Good Evening,

The ECB QE announcement was and did benefit the market (some quality) and dragged up some of the dross as well. Gold attempted to anchor in at $1310/Oz. and failed miserably (for now), with a good % of the Au market cashing in some very stale positions the market will look for further direction. Already the bulls are predicting $2k/oz. again! The Copper malaise continued ignoring anything QE, in fact shrugging the news off and dropping a cent or four to $2.57/lb circa $5665.87/t. 

The common-sense trades were FX movements and its now over to the market to eke out the beneficiaries of the ECB QE. With earnings under pressure from lower commodities, factory gate and exports, the jury for the ECB to cure the EU woes is out (myself included). 

Is it time for China to dump steel into the EU to suppress prices for longer and deflate consumer prices. This steel will of course be boron free (read as Tax Rebate) but there are limited alternatives with the Chinese market being awash with it. The surplus with the addition of boron (whether it was or not is another question) had previously made steel a competitive export (even for the poor performing mills) because of the 9% boron steel tax rebate that has now been cancelled. 

Russia has the potential to take up this strain from China, with the need for FX/Earnings Russia has been given the best headwind to obtain market share in hot-rolled steel exports. Russia has a weak Ruble () and Chinese contraction in steel exports in the short-term, Russian steel could be on to a winner! Evraz? OAO Novolipetsk Steel? Severstal? One wouldn't want to be holding the Indian equivalents, Tata’s costs are already difficult to manage, no market Europe for Russia? Nevermind India will do. Indian producers may become more bullish if the $1:56, where pricing will impact on Russian exports to India. .

The Chinese steel exports may contract in the short term, but Europe may find themselves the beneficiary of some cheap steel from China! With iron ore having plummeted and searching for a balance in pricing, steel prices declining 14%, if the two continue for much longer both steel and iron ore production may go into decline as well.

KMR (Kenmare Resources) proved the perfect trade today with the traders hearing the gossip of negotiations nearing an end that will give some assurances to any offer Iluka Resources wish to make (or not). KMR, as I've stated for a while at circa 2 pence becomes the pure down side protected/limited trade long. 

There's some loose gossip that Iluka Resources are not interested in to too many of the current senior management. How reliable this is is another matter and untested, but severance might be a stumbling block, could it go hostile? I doubt it as the creditors want more clarity on repayment and return on 'investment'. Iluka Resources as the larger entity will provide this if combined. With the chatter of 12 pence, it's certainly not for the faint-hearted 

Atb Fraser

Morning Mumble: QE...the amateur simpletons view & WRN...+++Rio, BLT, Monitise, Fever tree and Euroscepticism.

Good Morning,

Its coming and the bets are on but with the Swiss National Banks (SNB) decisive actions on Friday the market is looking for something a bit more charged. Putin will be praying for a significant cold spell, perhaps even planning a late 2015 re-entry where he can obtain leverage. QE is likely to assist this conversely promoting inflows of investment (where possible). The markets are getting hooked on drama rather than consistent and solid performance (read as also investing in crap!) with common-sense being applied. 

Unlike America where the culture may have ranges (diversity) but similar agendas, the Eurozone does not have this luxury with contrasting voters and more so agendas of protectionism (read as Germany and France albeit not a united front). 

Without pretending nor even attempting to be all things Euro or Macro, it’s looking more and more like an inverted pyramid with Germany propping up the fragile economies of the Eurozone. When considering the outcome, the markets will be cooking on gas again until they're taken off the market welfare assistance (QE). The real risk is the incapable governments utilising excuses to justify their spending rather than address their budgetary needs quicker to re-correct the fundamental issues within their economies.

The sticking point is who will be responsible for each member states debt. Its ironic that in alleged harmony the wealthier members do not want to share the load (read as take the load). So whilst the finer print is muddled through one can't help but wonder if the EU is in for some re-branding, to European Disunion. 

The conflict of interest is disliking all things EU, with yet another tier of bureaucracy where if the costs of the EU were stripped out it would be a long-term form of QE anyway. For every country contributing there's a net benefit to 2 by their membership in the EU, its a wonder its lasted this long. The EU may or may not have a determination of strength in due course if QE does not work. 

The issues of high level unemployment (Circa 10%+*) are unlikely to be improved by the EU's bond purchases as greater focus on the issues within each country are needed. France has yet again (for the third time) asked for an extension to deal with its deficit. The French are notoriously difficult to deal with when they're doing something or not...(yes thought was put into the phrase). So in the absence of economical stimulus with a focused approached its unlikely to be as effective bar a few KPI's  (Key point indicators). These are likely to be superficial living standards and welfare claimants measures (distorted by in work benefits).

In the markets today, we had Worthington Group (WRN) (still suspended pending a prospectus which should have been out by now) update on CPS Energy Resources. The question should be, with the information (surely) to hand why was it not specifically excluded in in the Company's calculation of consolidated assets, profits, sectors or geographic locations announced on the 9th January 2015. After all the deal was announced back in October 2014. 

Is this one for the regulatory team of AIM...even as far as the FCA. The company made no exemption for CPS in their calculation of the net asset value for mining, oil and gas within the announcement on the Friday 09 January, 2015. Today, in the RNS only four areas are now included: property, litigation claims, new economy and emerging markets, yet 13 days previously it includes oil, gas or energy, oops and also mining now! If you hold the stock it would be wise to call an EGM and force disclosure of everything including the prospectus. Actually why bother, if you own this stock don't read on, close the page!

Copper woke up this morning, I suspect with some draw from gold and the dollar weakening. Iron ore minnows were getting a kicking, whereas Rio and BLT shrugged off the obvious and went on an easy trading run. In the absence of traders and pension funds would Rio and BLT be circa 2,500 and 985 pence respectively? Although there’s starting to be a good argument for near bottom of cycle buying that I disagree with. Rio's ramp up and inventory sales support their thesis on expansion, will it continue?!

BLT having further issues with Manganese as Roger Bade pointed out, prices down circa 10%. Over to the Atlas Iron (ASX: AGO) whom had opportunity to get out considerably higher thanks to the DCE (Dalian Commodity Exchange) extension in trading hours. Gold and silver both stabilising and awaiting the next indicators its over to ECB QE. Oil likely to benefit as well with the steady appreciation continuing, appreciating to circa $55/bbl give of take 3% drift between WTI and Brent.

AB Foods (ABF) finally giving in to common-sense with significant selling. Does it really take that long to digest the results? EMC view January 15, 2015, who'd have thought it and time to quote myself: "With little upside on the current SP, it’s wise not to carry profits much past the news. Under review for the short, now January 2015 has arrived." Will a DRIP (Dividend re-investment plan) assist? I doubt it...

Hulme Capital had a few issues this morning with the 'wording', for which having wanted to find out more had some diplomatic clarification from two companies in RNS REM & UKOG after this morning's Dismissal of Adviser REM & UKOG. By sheer coincidence both with a related party associated to both companies, Mr David Lenigas.

Monitise's (MONI) trading update & initiation of strategic review, informs us its up for sale with the price reacting in the right manner. With UK Mail (UKM) coming out the reporting starting blocks 10 days ago Royal Mail (RMG) Nine Months Trading Update had little in the way of surprises and was the long to the news. With little commentary (in fact none) on fuel cost benefits, RMG have missed an opportunity to promote their own stock, improving margins and energy costs reducing. 

Limited time for some, including Tullow (TLW) and Gulf Keystone (GKP) but to my left eye Malcy has saved myself via his blog today. Fever Tree (FEVR) pre-close update come with no surprises from a quality label. FEVR are the Carlsberg of tonics in my view! Having been drinking FEVR tonic for a good time, its about the only additive to gin I can differentiate in taste save for Hendricks Gin and Adnams Copperhouse Gin after one.

Atb Fraser

*Unemployment stats: Greece 25%, Spain 23%, Cyprus 16%, Croatia 16%, Portugal 14%, Italy 13%, Slovakia 12%, Bulgaria 11%, Ireland 10%, Latvia 10%, France 10%....all 17 others sub 10% with an average of circa 10%. 

PM Bolt on: LEX. Miners: Where to be in a world of low commodity prices?

Good afternoon,

Today I afforded myself a treat with 1 hour of Miners: Where to be in a world of low commodity prices? Some food for thought there today that needs some consideration for those in the cycle of investing. For myself, dull for others, it was an enjoyable session. 

Atb Fraser

Morning Mumble: All that Glitters Au Ag, Amara's placing, Weatherly, GLIF & JD Wetherspoon.

Good Morning, 

A pleasure when the smaller boys make a decent packet out of the market in comparison to the houses of grandeur such as the high fees for M&A or the odd take private element. 

Having traded long on gold on the back of CHF and China, yes China gave gold a leg up plus Asian trading and NY. China's data created yet more demand on gold risk, so this morning its time to take the majority of profits (perhaps earlier buy but yet again solid profits). It’s not so long ago a few savvy investors picked up some significant low cost gold bets (EMC). It would appear the corporate gold traders were caught napping by the move and very few have profited from the appreciation of gold. Kudos to the few, with a not so paltry pay cheque either.

With gold and silver in fashion at the moment, it is wise to buy exposure into those leveraged plays such as the once upon a time short, HOC (Hochschild) who has appreciated near 30% since the change in sentiment and trend for Ag circa $18.30/oz. HOC's now making a profit again! With HOC's Q4 production update being a lot better than most (includingmyself thought). 

The HOC holders can breathe a sigh of relief with HOC completing a decent hedging programme to lock in some transparency over cashflow even if prices appreciate. With HOC signing agreements to hedge the sale of 6,000,000 ounces of silver at $17.75 per ounce for 2015. This is in addition to the previous agreement to hedge 38,000 ounces of gold for 2015 at $1,300 per ounce.

We'll side step Petropavlovsk (POG) purely on the basis of unnecessary appreciation over Christmas and without justification. 

Copper appears to be looking for a floor / support in the price at the moment, although the deals being done and stocks increasing at LME certainly leave a lot for the interpretation. The guessing for copper will continue as two dominant warrant holders sit on their hands (maybe slightly singed). 

With metal warranted against the January 2015 date becoming prompt this week supplies are likely to up-tick contradicting the narrow bands of supply and demand. One certainly to keep your eye on if trading, especially if the physical market becomes tighter (allegedly) again. (Circa 19th April 2015). One suspects that Standard Bank's Aug/Sept notes on copper might need a slight revision. 

The question over the short-term is will the Chinese smelter excess still be managed appropriately (drip feeding back in to the market) with some losses stacking up or is there likely to be a very short-term swell in physical to meet obligations? The market I suspect will wait till factory restarts before taking an opinion. With factory gate prices lower there's pressure on the market to maintain a competitive (read as cheaper) attractiveness.

We see the results of Amara Mining's (AMA) placing which shaves certain assumptions off the target or take out price, down around 10% of previous estimates (Approximate 25.2 - 28 pence now.) The positives are any suitor is wise to acknowledge AMA is now far from vulnerable to speculative approaches being funded to an investment project decision and is supported. If the book-build was so well supported why is there a discount to market of 15% or thereabouts? 

In-between AMA's announcement of its intentionto conduct a placing (worth a read) and today the costs of the BFS and completion apparently appreciated 10% or should it be the needs appreciated 10%. It’s acknowledged that with a prevailing wind for gold it was wise to press the button on cash. The disappointment being, if Peel Hunt and GMP Securities Europe had to offer a discount on the price, it does not bode well for other entities looking for cash. So in the absence of Randgold (EMC May 2014) news or Samsung, Q4 2015 looks to be the date in mind, one hopes financing can be encouraged in the current gold climate sooner rather than later. 

Stating the obvious award goes to J D Wetherspoon(JDW) with increased competition from the supermarkets. JDW more recent declines I thought were obvious, with landlords’ holidays often taken post-Christmas? With calls for equality in treatment stating the obvious bad news in the sector etc...if JDW don't like the sector why are they operating in it? Expanding yet claiming discriminatory pressures is never a good thing with increased LFL sales and margins, albeit under pressure from their wage increases are healthy. JDW's update will be taken as well as Majestic Wine's (MJW)! The hangover should have been taken post-Christmas. 

Its the day for the GLIF  (GLI Finance ) dividend announcement (see: EMC GLIF April 2014) and only two days ago Inspired Capital (INSC) (the old Renovo aka Ultimate Finance Group) trading update.

Bowleven (BLVN) informed the market of the two well exploration drilling programme on the Bomono Permit, with fingers cross for the company (no position), they'll need it! WTI (Weatherly International) quarterly operations and production update does not bode well! From EMC, will it stop the rot!, we had our answer sooner than expected! 

Little time to discuss the BLT (BHP Billiton) Operational Review Half Year Ended 31 Dec 2014 shale being an obvious candidate for some tighter cost controls and copper even performing well (grades?), Anglo Pacific's update on the Kestrel royalty, seeming like desperation to maintain the SP. Afren's update hasn't gone down well re: amortisation payment.

Atb Fraser

Morning Mumble: A side thought for the banks & Chinese (stimulus).

Good Morning,

Some things I started at the weekend and didn't have time to complete, a life Jim! For those knowing my historic gambling decisions will be shocked that it ended up being the culmination of a week of exceptional performance and ironic that the betting at the dogs resulted in an approximate nil loss.

Yes it was with pleasure that the 41 year gambling curse and lost a few won a few was broken. A good night on Friday, it was a positive I had my carer there to remind me to hand over the keys to my car, reminded me to bring my wallet, my phone, in fact just about anything! It's going to become more common as keyless entry becomes the norm and as a car swaps drivers the person (me) with the card/key in their pocket disappears off. Is there a potential insurance risk here? 

Banking stocks are normally good for trend and sentiment trading such as Standard Charter (STAN) based on their Asian exposure and limited upside. They have had a contraction in their lending based on a tougher lending requirement and panicky underwriters being more risk averse. Something that may be highlighted in time in their bad debt provisions never mind the Greek issue.

EMC Banking Updates (01/17/2015), is not without precedence that some well-known FX traders including Barclays (BARC) may have a few losses to notify the market of. Reuters highlight the Barclays issues... and Zero hedge pointing out the divergence of stocks& financial credit. There's a certain trading houses well known for FX, gold and copper might also need a little weekend work (this weekend as well).

Disappointing for the staff of FX companies scaling back and laying off because they're entering or attempting to avoid administration. We'll avoid mentioning those that should have made themselves of the full risks but they should have been fully aware with leverage that means there's a leveraged equivalent of debt (the multiplier). The FT. Swiss franc fallout claims more casualties. What is likely is a regulation in the FX market, with circa 80-90% of retail losing monies on FX, will there be limitations on capital exposure and the leverage? 

There was a contraction in speculation (yet again) that has impacted on stocks and commodities, with the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) running with China Shares Tumble on Margin-Trading Crackdown, with the rolling over of positions. This is likely to make payment due for some significant losses. Some of which have been commented on here and some that have been defaulted upon, perhaps those iron ore speculators are going to get "le grand awakening" post Chinese Government intervention.

It’s a big day for China with consensus of 7.4% Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The FT ran yesterday Five things to watch on China GDP growth. With so much weighted towards housing and making up such a significant proportion of growth the focus will be on how this balances with the rest of the economy.

Importantly Chinese Local Governments (LG) are reliant upon housing for revenue/income. With such high levels of borrowing can the LG's continue with Central Government stimulus unlikely to increase these revenue streams. Having failed in all efforts so far to turn around the housing market (for now) and in the absence of a turnaround in the sector? Expect some changes in land sales agreements to be announced soon, cheaper land for cheaper housing the same as UK focus currently. 

Other sectors have some catching up to do with the housing issues, declining sales, voids in unsaleable and un-rentable property due to oversupply. Something that will cause the market to digest with some immediacy. As a result oil and copper have pulled back some today in anticipation.

Oil was off on the Chinese data, despite the Chinese being actively in the market buying physical is at WTI $47.26 /bbl. and Brent $48.54/bbl. Even with Chinese Copper being set to benefit from China grid investment it fell. Do not expect much appreciation until February factories restarts, although restocking has been conducted earlier than most realise there should be a moderate appreciation in copper assuming other variables (EU/Greece) don't come in to play and further declines in margined trading. 

Yesterday it was noted the ChinaISA (China Iron and Steel Association) reported on steel inventories, China’s daily crude steel production – a movable feast. In speaking with Li, it was amazing that the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) commenced trading iron ore contracts at night. Yes folks, if the Chinese couldn't get enough in the day, they can wire up on coffee and trade through the night. Shockingly this assisted the DCE to rise giving some hope to iron ore traders and investors as prices bounced.

A lot of news to digest from Rio Tinto (RIO) with 4th quarter results, I'll come back to this with more time. To summarise Rio is as solid as the market expected. The pigs in the palace are hard coking coal down -9% on 2013, Semi-soft and thermal coal -6% (on 2013) and Titanium dioxide feedstock down 11% (Can we hear KMR cheer during financing negotiations). Iron ore on trend with a 5% increase on Q3, proving the model is economies is scale won't stop this juggernaut. Expansion to 360 Mt/a expansion is around 80 per cent complete it’s wise to consider the stress to prices by end of H1 2015.

Copper was down 15% as a result off a whopping 24% drop in grades at Bingham Canyon mine  (a common issue across the sector when compared to averages of a few years back) that should recover post mining in higher grade areas. Turquoise Hill Resources aka Oyu Tolgoi mine grades are half decent with improved grades and production with little impact from the fire. Eyes on the 27 January 2015 for Freeport-McMoRan update on Grasberg. 

Kenmare Resources (KMR), despite the Irish Times article about Kenmare in talks to finalise debt restructuring deal Shares in mining company have fallen 80% since rejection of Iluka bid, with debt restructuring likely to be resolved either way with Iluka Resources or not. Considering Blackrock and JPMorgan are net sellers, it’s not without risks but there's some belated cheer, Rio have scaled back their Titanium dioxide feedstock by 11% over to KMR. Investors would be wise to keep read Iluka Resources quarterly production update to measure the outlook/performance. 

Rio informs us of their provisional pricing and 2014 production versus guidance for copper (over to Rio). Provisional pricing - At 31 December 2014, the Group had an estimated 423 million pounds of copper sales that were provisionally priced at $2.87/lb. The final price of these sales will be determined during the first half of 2015. This compares with 254 million pounds of open shipments at 31 December 2013, provisionally priced at $3.33/lb. With copper at circa $2.55/lb today, anyone for a revision? 

2014 production versus guidance - Mined and refined copper production was broadly in line with upgraded guidance of approximately 615,000 tonnes and 300,000 tonnes, respectively. This was achieved notwithstanding lower than expected production from Escondida and the fire experienced at Oyu Tolgoi in the fourth quarter. 

Escondida and Oyu Tolgoi should recover by Q2 2015, which will be positive for the bottom line. Quite how Rio handles the Coal and Titanium dioxide issues will be interesting. Expect what the competitors gain today will be eroded tomorrow. 

For the cocoa watchers, it might be pertinent to watch the next quarter for prices. With strong correlations between agricultural futures and oil one wonders when the speculators will hit the agricultural futures markets. Corn looks to have found support circa $4 a bushel. Corn and sugar is will be under further pressure especially ethanol producers. Margins for ethanol producers can barely be viable at current prices...Circa $0.02-0.03 (cents) a barrel at most in the current market, declining near 85% in a few weeks.  Cocoa prices ease as European grind volumes tumble

One cannot help but wonder how Maple Energy (MPLE) are doing, although they cannot really go much lower than the last time I looked at circa 6 pence on the buy. Nor can much more go wrong for MPLE, save for their creditors picking the keys up. 

Final thoughts go to Saxo, for those risk averse one would be wise to make sure they're appropriately protected. 

Atb Fraser

Evening Bolt on par deux: Or converse morning Mumble...AFR, gold,

Good afternoon, 

Having been in meetings this morning, it’s refreshing to be out in the big wide world. With some sensibility about the place and the FX issues becoming more transparent with huge kicking to those whom were long GBP Vs...pre-the-Swiss-roll (WHY!?!?!?!) Seems some banking updates might need a little clarification post their most recent results. A not uncommon situation where analysis of your market always pays off. 

There's still a lot more to come with commodities in terms of volatility it won't be the last we hear of the situation. Once again, it’s with disappointment that another shorting fund has been outed, long may the press not break the status quo. 

Speculation about the PUSU (put up shut up) takeover requirements for Afren expiring on Monday (Jan 19, 2015), with 3 other suitors its rather irrelevant because they would only be exempt until another offer materialises; who wants to make the move first offer (poker faces required). 

With a rumoured three suitors, one of an opaque entity allegedly Chinese (ZhenHua Oil albeit owned by China North Industries Corporation (NORINCO)) but actually on behalf of Liberian businessmen Bert Cooper. Perhaps we could as Mr Yuan at Forte energy! As reported by Agence Ecofin - Le nigérian Seplat Petroleum confirme son appétit pour Afren last Friday (Jan 09, 2015) and SEPLAT (SEPL) (although I am preferring Seplay!). The question is how much...with limited skin in the AFR its not something worry about too much until trading opportunities present (deal on or off)

With gold now heading above the crucial $1268/oz. support (approx.), its looking more probable on three very savvy investors set to make circa $117m EMC See: larger bets going in on NY and Asia for a material tick up some $100+/oz. This could just be the lowest cost trade of the year. 

Final thoughts for the weekend goes to oil predictably appreciating but what is the read through for Unilever, Nestle, Proctor & Gamble, surely an improvement in production and operating costs? Over to the analysts. 

Tonight is legalised gambling which will result on my counter-party gaining all my offerings, I suspect I shall require a Gift Aid contribution judging past-performance. 

Atb Fraser

Evening Bolt On: Afren & MPI + Alleged CU Chaos (Investments)

Good Evening Morning, (forgot to press publish as well)

It was going to post this last night but after a long day and out most of the day don't expect much more. Hopefully copper won't CU you asleep!

Afren Plc (AFR) we know are being pursued by SEPLAT Petroleum Development Company plc (AFR share price movement statement 22nd December 2014). If we think back to EMC over to MPI the curve ball. It would appear the word (city street speak ha ha) in Nigeria (via Ian who is showing discontent and going to Indaba!) is MPI (Significant shareholder in SEPLAT) wanting to maintain its interest in SEPLAT by providing the cash element of any deal. 

What the AFR deal is valued at is down to conjecture and significant speculation. Investors can argue any case of valuation between 6 pence and 85 pence in share valuation, Save for today's close on longs and letting capital equity risk the end game, AFR is will be limited within my trading agenda for the foreseeable future or until a deal is or is not announced finalised.

Yesterday we had the FT China funds bring Chaos to metals markets Henry Sanderson and Neil Hume. This was known about around the time Red Kite's holdings were circa 60% of the LME (London Metals Exchange) copper in October 2014. Not only did it distort the futures market but create the equivalent of a raid effect on a stock commodity that's tightly held and without any natural principles of trading to derive a true market price. 

Investors would be wise to consider the impact not only of Shanghai Chaos Investment Co but 3 major trading houses betting on a long trend from January 2013 with copper bucking all the other commodity trends. Chaos Investment was not the distortion in the market it was the reality, the likes of RK Capital Management (Red Kite), Glencore (GLEN) and Trafigura Beheer BV (Trafigura) were the distortion.

The categorical absence of speculation in copper and the hoarding of undisclosed stores of Red Kite, GLEN and Trafigura have in essence created a false market (the three). Aided in part by the closure of Clive Capital (Circa $5B under management) in late 2013, Armajaro and Astenbeck performing below par and China not pushing forward their economies of scale that would make for the three being largely immaterial in price controls.

From 2013, LME warehouse owners were having to pay premiums to obtain physical deliveries of copper (the same as the other day when EMC commentated on Outcry pricing). For a considerable part of 2013 and most of 2014, the commodities traders forced industrial consumers to speculate rather than take the spot price. This unwound just after Christmas this year including the Chinese premium or risk within pricing (See Codelco EMC comments 12th December 2014)

What is known is there is nowhere near a deficit in copper, supplies and delivery are flowing with limited Chinese speculation. With Chinese speculation until December/January being absent, save for the larger boys funded by the Government for use, limited speculation and smaller funds including Chaos Investments the main elements were physical. The contraction was largely brought on by the Qingdao copper scandal and the three trading houses hoarding/limiting supply. Qingdao had a three pronged effect on the market, copper imports contracted notably, speculation reduced as a result of a contraction in financing and a realism returned to the health of the economy and market in pricing.

So with an alleged tightening of copper yet again (read as pricing controls, limitations and price premiums on immediate physical delivery), copper in the absence of Chaos et al with more to the trade than just Chaos see: EMC posts on main demand in China etc...), copper is likely to appreciate until of course a swelling of supply yet again is formally evidenced. So we are reminded of despite copper fall, Las Bambas construction continues, which if I'm correct is set for production end of Q1 2016 (circa 14 months away)

We will leave the discussion for another day on the mines at Sierra Gorda (Owner: KGHM International; Location Chile), Toromocho (Owner Chinalco, Peru), Oyu Tolgoi (Owner Rio Tinto with Turquoise Hill Mongolia) and Minas Ministro Hales (Codelco Chile) all on the ramp up or coming on stream copper supplies won’t be an issue even towards the critical stage of 2018. What is at risk is the clarity in pricing… (Old data so may need ownership structure changing from January 2014.)

Considering the flow of money with higher discretionary spending, we have JD Sports (I can't use fashion in the title apologies) performance following the Christmas trading period. Over to Sports Direct with the investment arm (my view). No time for the obvious CHF Gold benefits nor silver, nor platinum. The Oil technical trading suggests a movement towards $55/bbl in the short-term (and subject to change). 

Atb Fraser

Gossip: Seems IGG weren't the only one caught off-side by the Swiss Roll!