Good Morning, a fab weekend thank you!
Delays because of an earlier than planned phone conference as people appear to not know the UK is in a different time zone than Switzerland. You are forgiven, this once!
Copper hit a past low, pending one whom you listen to this is a 4 1/2 to 5 1/2 years. All "blamed" on the lack of Chinese Stimulus and Strong U$D. Read in conjunction with EMC Friday is here...Oil will be grateful & Copper lowering demand higher levels of "fire sale" inventory and China’s factory-gate prices tanked. The leverage or lack of, save for the provision by what the Chinese (Government) banks wish to provide now, is impacting on the copper market.
The issues aside of this, as reported by most being that the German industrial production fell unexpectedly. If it was an unforeseen event, then the consensus should have read the August figures for Germany Industrial Production (GRIPIMOM) in August weren't these an indicator of a cycle? Blomberg ran: German Industrial Output Drops Most Since 2009.
With futures dropping to $2.755/lb and the absence of positive speculation the trend is set. Historically if oil is setting news lows and tests historic support levels then perhaps copper's chances of Circa $2.5/lb are becoming a real risk.
The oil cycle, inconsistent data from America in terms of wage growth (or lack of) and lack of new stimulus from China is creating inconsistent moves in Gold. Gold ran up to $1230/oz. slipping a tad to circa $1224/oz. In the absence of any change in the news global there is no reason for Gold to be trending so high. All deflationary indicators are kicking in (the above) with oil being the start of the cycle of lower costs (exc. for OPEC intervention).
Afren (AFR) today came back with a kicking for shareholders with the update on Barda Rash, Kurdistan region of Iraq far from the news the market was expecting. It doesn't bode well for any negotiations for the business as there was a belief of significant upside in Barda Rash. Will this impact on the offer? Hmmm...In fact save for a significantly discounted offer, will there be one! At the current SP its hard to find little value above the current price for equity holders and if oil deteriorates further, there's a potential default (nil value for shareholders).
AO World (AO.) third quarter trading statement pleased the market today...one shall bide my time there for the next run! At a silly level of future earnings (even today) there's little room for mistakes from AO.
The leaky ship award goes to Quindell (QPP) and the its only a moment of time award goes to shaft sinkers (SHFT). There's some rumours out of South Africa that certain mining companies are going to provide finance. Over to Impala, ENRC (Via KazChrome) and a few others to decide on the fate...shareholders shouldn't expect too much. From 2012 the writing on the wall has not been good for Shaft Sinkers, a casualty where the equitable risks to projects should have been considered in greater depth (I know bad pun). One will expect a nice apology from a certain group regarding the outcome for Shaft Sinkers. For a quote from a "professional"...your view of shft is misguided if it ever hits 5 pence there will be something very wrong. I wonder what said person thinks to tuppence give or take a few?
With Brent at $48.84/bbl...expect some carnage in the sector. With a timely reminder that Iron Ore dropping subs $70/t, there were no surprises to the casualties. On the Atlas Iron (ASX:AGO) front they were being punished as a result. One hopes they banked significant profits...
Atb Fraser
(Edited/Proof-read as I had a little more time to correct basic errors this mornings was in a significant rush apologies.) Original here: Unedited
(Edited/Proof-read as I had a little more time to correct basic errors this mornings was in a significant rush apologies.) Original here: Unedited
Fraser- Hi - glad the weekend went well albeit confracall early is never the way to start a week well.
ReplyDeleteRe AFR- yes, maybe they had to announce if they are in serious talks, the mkt and bidders need to know that Barda Rash is mainly water... it was only worth 5p in my figures so perhaps an overreaction, but oil drops again and they have many issues at AFR, so over to SEPLATS for their 19/1/15 deadline to see if they have added. I did buy some at below 30p but not enough to commit to AFR, just loked liked it had dropped a bit too much... lets see but I wont lose much sleep.
Re SHFT- that looks v much like the penultimate RNS that many failed cos have had to release- they still have that legal matter o/s too so I wonder why anyone would buy this am. Not much value in there that I can see at all, with the legal case hovering like a vulture if they sort out their op issues.
Cheers. The Leggie
No one could criticise for the commentary or grammar Fraser. It must be hard sharing and doing the day job. Brilliant work on oil and nice to see you being up on shipping. Cheers ViT
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