PM Bolt On: FTSE Re-jigs + Greggs (GRG) belatedly joining HIK in an exclusive club (for now).

Good Evening,

Kicking itself out of the FTSE 100 to the FTSE 250 is Tullow Oil (TLW) and being replaced by Hikma Pharmaceuticals (HIK). This evening saw the departure from the FTSE 250, Afren (AFR), Game Digital (GMD) and Oxford Instruments (OXIG). In goes AA Plc (AA.), Imagination Technologies Group (IMG) and Virgin Money Holdings (VM.) 

As a positive, HIK has long been established in the do not short category, near 5 years. With institutional owners reducing the stock may see some selling in the short-term. The potential of Pfizer/Hospira impacting on HIK's market is limited. With regions becoming more competitive expect HIK's margins to be under-pressure with modest growth but resilient and very competitive. 

With the Darwazah family holding at circa 30%, any offer would have to be of stellar proportions to be sufficiently enticing to gain the support of the family. With HIK's performance to date you'd be a fool to bet against the company without sufficient news to validate the position. Greggs may have just joined this rather exclusive club...

The reserves list being: 

• Berkeley Group Holdings (BKG)
• Cobham (COB)
• Inmarsat (ISAT)
• Merlin Entertainments (MERL)
• Provident Financial (PFG)
• Rexam (REX) (canned/poor I know).

EMC: Greggs (GRG) Tuesday, 13 January 2015 longs were validated after being categorically wrong. The profits up just over 40% today (Preliminary Results), benefiting from a smoother blend of coffee (instead of floor sweepings (EMC View), expanding almost Costa like into motorway service stations (even an Isle of Wright ferry) they are certainly grasping the Greggs turnaround plan. With the bakery, pies and pasties still the butt of jokes but key to the end-users perception of food on the go, namely fresh and perceived decent value. 

The risks are not to be ignored in terms of the food-on-the-go competition hotting up, with a target of circa 2K stores, Greggs still has some decent head-room and upgrades likely, with expansion paying well whilst consumer confidence is positive. One would be wise not to get complacent. With a reviewed target price of near 990 pence, patience may be needed as momentum is clearly in place for the management and a favourable outlook with lower oil prices, improved consumer mood, and employment on the up (if one ignores some elements including zero hours). A real risk to Greggs is that it has been suggested that some management may be enticed by "bigger fish." 

Atb Fraser

N.B. Abusive or ignorant commentary will never be published, don't waste your time as it just enters my spam bin.

Morning Mumble: The Rumour Mill in Afren & Gulf Keystone...positives for KEFI? surely not!

Good Morning,

Afren (AFR), appear not to have updated the market on "the likely" outcome of the bondholders with monies allegedly already being discussed. Speculators would be wise to acknowledge the risks associated with the equity going to 3 pence. 

This morning, Leggie rightly points out it's an identical play to Petropavlovsk Plc (POG), whom Deutsche Bank AG put their head above the parapet with 7%. AFR, was once upon a time a darling of EMC, including most of the supporters, logically it was wise to exit. Is there a lesson here about hedging and leverage? 

Sticking with the rumours, Gulf Keystone (GKP) allegedly have some visitors either heading to or currently on site in Kurdistan. With a Competent Persons Report (CPR) due very soon don't expect too much before this but with GKP about the money at the moment, it would perhaps be wise to watch the volumes. 

Eurocel (ECEL) are coming to the market with conditional listing today and unconditionally on Monday. The IPO with the Dutch and management cashing out circa 50% of their holding, we'll leave it to the pundits to assess the viability of the company. With a valuation of £175M gives an implied yield of 6% assuming no growth. Investors would be wise to look that all the previous year’s performance, not just 2014!

A few analysts had some comical backtracking (belatedly) on Fresnillo (FRES) today. The Financial Results for the Year Ended Dec 2014 are as expected, crap. We do not need rocket scientists to point out the obvious between 2013 and 2014 in terms of silver prices, with a 18% decline in realised prices and nearer 32% if one was to include the last 3 months with the average weight price down, towards $17/oz., at best. 

It’s worth noting, with FRES's expansion and long game, it'll give some comfort to long-only holders to top up/average down. The news is a signal for yours truly to close shorts to reappraise fully, FRES's production costs have dropped which helped to offset the grade declines but could not keep up with the price of silver tanking. With averaged prices significantly lower since the reporting period, FRES need to get a handle on costs. Although it's ironic shareholder funds performed better than GLEN, a whopping 5%. 

What are Bacanora Minerals (BCN) playing at? Holders voted with their feet today for good reason and to show their disapproval sold a minor amount to give the board a clear indication of their views. If the board do not take today's price action as an indicator of shareholder opinion, they would be wise to learn. 

BCN may go strength to strength from here is immaterial to the value the company had yesterday. There would have been no successful outcome on the EGM based on a quick poll of decent holders. Having closed spread bets the profit has been left to run in equity, with a different risk profile as a result of the appointment today. BCN can look forward to some Horse Hill type twitter updates. On a positive, with funding readily available for "key" projects and a CEO not far away from for BCN the outlook is positive for the assets only. 

It’s rare to see anything positive for the shareholders out of KEFI but today they have come out with a decent update.. With some easy finance should be available locally for Jibal Qutman, KEFI would be wise to focus some significant effort on pushing the project into production. 

The key for the stakeholders being the oxidised material where recovery rates likely to be in the 80-90 percentile. Hawiah has some appetising comments where KEFI seem to think they can “identify large base metal (copper, gold and zinc) targets at depth." Could KEFI just be turning a corner and warrant a buy? We'll await further base metal analysis. 

Limited time to cover the significant amount of oil hedging currently underway! 

Atb Fraser

Belated Morning Mumble & PM Bolt On: Shaft'ed (SHFT), AAL something's lacking in the sandwich & AHhhhhhhhh'fren + the Alleged amateur of aim...+the paradigm shift in China's iron ore.

Good Evening, 

With Indaba and a few other items going on it’s been extremely busy week with meetings and teleconferencing from the UK. Today a slide show was emailed around with myself to be "formerly" known as the Amateur of AIM. It’s a pleasure to drink their gin this evening, but restricting the consumption to a few rather than two cases (apology accepted). 

Shaft Sinkers (SHFT) hit the wall with a financing update at 12:32, just a few weeks after a "yoff" (read as person younger than I in a position I'd have loved when I was his age) challenged the EMC analysis of the company and why it hadn't gone bust!?! SHFT is dogged with its inability to share the risks of contracting with the miners, creating an imbalance in returns and something contractors need to learn (mail box for a quote to understand this; its not cheap!). 

SHFT's issues were endemic of commodity prices declining (receding super-cycle), opex/capex cuts, the South African strikes whilst not forgetting the Kazakhstan contacts were totally misunderstood by the market and lack of risk sharing in contracting. It was one of the favoured shorts, kick the dogs. The employees and staff should be ok, it would be wise for investors to note a few key names from the board in their journal for future reference.

Anglo American (AAL) Full Year Results 2014 is/was abysmal. The write-down on Minas-Rio of $3.5 billion is laughable when the company state Minas -Rio is ahead of schedule in October [2014] and expect to bring the project in $400 million below the revised budget. Do the company have a handle on costs at all? Revising costs up, then coming in significantly below the revised budget. Sounds pretty much like a blank cheque. 

The savvy will start questioning whether AAL's net debt target of $12B is realistic in the current environment. With debt set to peak at $15.5 billion (EMC estimates) by end of year, commodities and free cashflow are going to have to significantly improve before one becomes positive on this stock. De Beers should be called Long32 (to mimic BLT's short32/south32) and be divested to support the balance sheet whilst there's value in the market. The market stupidly reacted today, and will ignore the realities. Up near 20% off its lows anyone would be thinking it’s going great guns. 

Afren (AFR) has had a lot of rumours abound today, as per FTML it was proven to be BS, save for the low ball offer that SEPLAT (SEPL) were offering. Afren shot out the gate with little option to maintain but to maintain there's value, with offer talks being terminated. SEPL announcing they had completed extensive due diligence on Afren and made a written proposal to the Board of Afren that provided critical and significant near-term liquidity and value for the stakeholders of Afren. Value for stakeholders...loose term for "not the shareholders"? 

It would appear David Lenigas has started a snowball on Bacanora Minerals (BCN) after the recent request to gain a seat on the board via REM (Rare Earth Minerals). A decent holder said today, they'll reconsider the viability of BCN if David Lenigas gains a seat on the board. Voters would be wise to think where their money is best placed. There's a number of items going on the side lines with BCN and good to follow as the big boys (exc. REM) start to play...its best to leave that one there, however if you're widow(er) or orphan you'd be advised to avoid.

With oil's absolute focus on rig counts it’s a speculators licence to print money as oil was propelled above $60/bbl (Brent) with the Euro-zone giving it a little squirt. Why it's rocketing away is purely down to a bounce with the surplus even allowing for a reduction in production still out gunning demand. The market is rushing to price in a reducing rig count, some "weather issues" (as Malcy eluded to in his blog) creating a better balance. 

The final thought of the weak (scuse the pun) is the iron ore short and the Vale gaining permission to utilise their giant ore carriers to China on Monday. Obviously this has nothing to do with some agreements with Cosco (China Ocean Shipping Group) and the related transactions. 

It’s rare to be able to quote EMC directly, so here's with a little clip from today:

"If China subsidises native production by 30$ a tonne for 125mt it effectively causes over supply and a short to $55/t. The subsidy via development grants will be partially offset by the 700mt at the lower price.  

China have just shorted Rio and BLT by allowing the super ore carriers in on Monday (9th) something Rio et al forgot to mention in their updates! Expect Cosco (China Merchants Energy Shipping state owned), to get further involved in the low cost super/giant carriers the deal with Vale from last year showing they're willing to apply pressure on Australia . The deal with Vale/Brazil has in essence reduced the need for 30% of Australian ore alternatively they [Rio et al] must slash prices.”

We'll leave it there...see you on Monday! 

Atb Fraser

Morning Mumble: Anglo Pacific belated...

Good Morning,

My daughter's bug impacting on the this mornings items slightly, where she wanted to sit and comforted with honey and lemon. So the world stopped for 5 hours and now back to normality whilst she sleeps or until she wakes.

A few weeks ago EMC Anglo Pacific Isua license & General Nice Development Limited was announced by all and sundry but not the royalty holder. Whether they had additional news or not, it would have been sensible to have updated the market about any discussions. If APF's Isua Project lien was on the title (the norm), irrespective of ownership, APF's royalty should have been good. APF belatedly update on the Isua Project being sold to General Nice Development. 

It should be noted the lack of a reversal in the $15M (write-down) and the absence of any impairment for the loss of $30M for a change in ownership. Anglo Pacific's assets are a play on a bull market, the price "looks" about right for now (but). Investors may have their patience significantly tested if Rio Tinto has a change of mind as APF's fortunes are expectant on the performance of Kestrel  (update 21st January 2015). It does show there's some potential but APF has not exactly warmed to the investors. Judging by Rio's intentions not to lose market share APF will benefit. Its looking like its time to turn just a little positive on APF.

As a seller of GEM Diamonds (GEMD) yesterday (EMC) they give a Trading Update for Q4 2014, with deterioration in prices, near 18-24% pending on view. The contraction in part is a 45-62% reduction in financing by the Antwerp Diamond Bank (ADB*) that seeks to exit the sector. With buyers being sought and opportunity being seen by investors this contraction is likely to go through but improve with June/July 2015 *(EMC forecasts) likely for a fuller recovery; save for significant changes in global economics and Russia.  

GEMD sees this trending going forward into Q1 2015. With the slack yet to be filled by ADB* it will take some time for a recovery in finances for the market liquidity, with a risk the traders preferring the absence of speculation with greater upside from the lower prices. The concern being that Petra Diamonds (PDL) seems to not consider the ADB exit of  the mark as significance. One would expect them to be aware of this as they have an office in the International Diamond Council (IDC) Building in Antwerp.

With circa 70-80% of diamond firms having accounts with ADB its wonder prices held up so well. An ending of tradition that's last since 1934, why KBC Bank N.V (the parent) couldn't find a buyer for the portfolio and ADB as a whole.

First Quantum Mining (FQM) update on its production and sales for the three months and year ended December 31, 2014 and production and capital expenditure outlook for the full year 2015. Over to FQM's First Quantum's CEO and Chairman Philip Pascall, 

"The financial and commodity markets have started 2015 with high volatility on concerns about the global economy, demand for natural resources and companies' liquidity positions. As a result, our share price, along with others in the sector, has been materially affected. While we have high confidence in the mid to long-term outlook for copper, we are mindful of the current concerns.  As always, we pay close attention to the Company's financial position to make sure there is sufficient flexibility despite having an active project development pipeline.  At Cobre Panama, we have substantially reduced the planned capital expenditure for 2015 to $600 million without compromising the project's progress. We also maintain strong and supportive relationships with our principal banks that have worked with us throughout the development of the Company and through several economic and commodity cycles,"

Zambia's Kansanshi's mine (FQM 80%/20% Zambia Consolidated Copper Mines (ZCCM) is still hampered by smelter capacity. Things are progressing with first pour at Sentinel (also Zambia) and forecasted production of 150-200k/t's later this year (circa August). We'll shudder at the costs per lb which must loss making at the current price. 

Then in December (2014), the atmospheric leach tank at failure at Ravensthorpe (Nickel) (FQM 100% Western Australia) doesn't bode well either. Quite how one scales back $600m at Cobra Panama (copper 80% FQM/20% Korea Panama Mining Corp (KPMC)) without compromising the projects progress questions the previous expenditure. Its wise to be picky, but common-sense is never absent from investments (certainly not here), then why were they spending the extra $600M? With production on the decline in the final quarter, sales in copper were only modestly lower than the previous year (consistent with global trend). At $2.54/lb for copper, the market will ignore the woes and buy into the stock. 

Iron ore depreciating and Fortescue Metals Group (FMG) (Why iron ore won’t rebound any time soon). having a moment of carnage before recovering on the ASX with Rio and BLT having the knife put to them as well. With the price well dropping in futures a further 5% the market might need to revise price expectations. Can you convert bulk shipping into a floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) facility? Please note the sarcasm. The FT ML fans will of course prefer Neil's commentary on the topic Iron ore falls to lowest since May 2009 on weak China demand. Implications for steel anyone?

Goldman I don't think expected their short-term bullish comments on gold to be so short with the drop. Goldman Sachs See Short-Term Strength In Gold, Remains Long-Term Bearish.

Who'd have thought Afren at near 6 pence...anyone!?!?! Yes, proudly here EMC: Evening Bolt On: Afren & MPI + Alleged CU Chaos (Investments). Today's update validating some shrewd positions with a Review of Afren's Capital Structure out today its reading like a slow motion train wreck. 

The no news but sensible decision by United Utilities (UU.) to accept the final determination. With the RPI target on dividend being a comfort to the dull goliath investment funds wanting income, the price is about right. Although the wise will have under review due to the appreciation over the last 12 months. Private Equity and Sovereign Wealth Funds will now be able to cast an accurate rule of the likes of UU. and SSE.

Atb Fraser

Antwerp Diamond Bank (ADB*) is owned by KBC Bank N.V and unlisted, EPIC attributable for the use within the article and not associated or inferred as being to another company. 

Evening Bolt on par deux: Or converse morning Mumble...AFR, gold,

Good afternoon, 

Having been in meetings this morning, it’s refreshing to be out in the big wide world. With some sensibility about the place and the FX issues becoming more transparent with huge kicking to those whom were long GBP Vs...pre-the-Swiss-roll (WHY!?!?!?!) Seems some banking updates might need a little clarification post their most recent results. A not uncommon situation where analysis of your market always pays off. 

There's still a lot more to come with commodities in terms of volatility it won't be the last we hear of the situation. Once again, it’s with disappointment that another shorting fund has been outed, long may the press not break the status quo. 

Speculation about the PUSU (put up shut up) takeover requirements for Afren expiring on Monday (Jan 19, 2015), with 3 other suitors its rather irrelevant because they would only be exempt until another offer materialises; who wants to make the move first offer (poker faces required). 

With a rumoured three suitors, one of an opaque entity allegedly Chinese (ZhenHua Oil albeit owned by China North Industries Corporation (NORINCO)) but actually on behalf of Liberian businessmen Bert Cooper. Perhaps we could as Mr Yuan at Forte energy! As reported by Agence Ecofin - Le nigérian Seplat Petroleum confirme son appétit pour Afren last Friday (Jan 09, 2015) and SEPLAT (SEPL) (although I am preferring Seplay!). The question is how much...with limited skin in the AFR its not something worry about too much until trading opportunities present (deal on or off)

With gold now heading above the crucial $1268/oz. support (approx.), its looking more probable on three very savvy investors set to make circa $117m EMC See: larger bets going in on NY and Asia for a material tick up some $100+/oz. This could just be the lowest cost trade of the year. 

Final thoughts for the weekend goes to oil predictably appreciating but what is the read through for Unilever, Nestle, Proctor & Gamble, surely an improvement in production and operating costs? Over to the analysts. 

Tonight is legalised gambling which will result on my counter-party gaining all my offerings, I suspect I shall require a Gift Aid contribution judging past-performance. 

Atb Fraser

Evening Bolt On: Afren & MPI + Alleged CU Chaos (Investments)

Good Evening Morning, (forgot to press publish as well)

It was going to post this last night but after a long day and out most of the day don't expect much more. Hopefully copper won't CU you asleep!

Afren Plc (AFR) we know are being pursued by SEPLAT Petroleum Development Company plc (AFR share price movement statement 22nd December 2014). If we think back to EMC over to MPI the curve ball. It would appear the word (city street speak ha ha) in Nigeria (via Ian who is showing discontent and going to Indaba!) is MPI (Significant shareholder in SEPLAT) wanting to maintain its interest in SEPLAT by providing the cash element of any deal. 

What the AFR deal is valued at is down to conjecture and significant speculation. Investors can argue any case of valuation between 6 pence and 85 pence in share valuation, Save for today's close on longs and letting capital equity risk the end game, AFR is will be limited within my trading agenda for the foreseeable future or until a deal is or is not announced finalised.

Yesterday we had the FT China funds bring Chaos to metals markets Henry Sanderson and Neil Hume. This was known about around the time Red Kite's holdings were circa 60% of the LME (London Metals Exchange) copper in October 2014. Not only did it distort the futures market but create the equivalent of a raid effect on a stock commodity that's tightly held and without any natural principles of trading to derive a true market price. 

Investors would be wise to consider the impact not only of Shanghai Chaos Investment Co but 3 major trading houses betting on a long trend from January 2013 with copper bucking all the other commodity trends. Chaos Investment was not the distortion in the market it was the reality, the likes of RK Capital Management (Red Kite), Glencore (GLEN) and Trafigura Beheer BV (Trafigura) were the distortion.

The categorical absence of speculation in copper and the hoarding of undisclosed stores of Red Kite, GLEN and Trafigura have in essence created a false market (the three). Aided in part by the closure of Clive Capital (Circa $5B under management) in late 2013, Armajaro and Astenbeck performing below par and China not pushing forward their economies of scale that would make for the three being largely immaterial in price controls.

From 2013, LME warehouse owners were having to pay premiums to obtain physical deliveries of copper (the same as the other day when EMC commentated on Outcry pricing). For a considerable part of 2013 and most of 2014, the commodities traders forced industrial consumers to speculate rather than take the spot price. This unwound just after Christmas this year including the Chinese premium or risk within pricing (See Codelco EMC comments 12th December 2014)

What is known is there is nowhere near a deficit in copper, supplies and delivery are flowing with limited Chinese speculation. With Chinese speculation until December/January being absent, save for the larger boys funded by the Government for use, limited speculation and smaller funds including Chaos Investments the main elements were physical. The contraction was largely brought on by the Qingdao copper scandal and the three trading houses hoarding/limiting supply. Qingdao had a three pronged effect on the market, copper imports contracted notably, speculation reduced as a result of a contraction in financing and a realism returned to the health of the economy and market in pricing.

So with an alleged tightening of copper yet again (read as pricing controls, limitations and price premiums on immediate physical delivery), copper in the absence of Chaos et al with more to the trade than just Chaos see: EMC posts on main demand in China etc...), copper is likely to appreciate until of course a swelling of supply yet again is formally evidenced. So we are reminded of despite copper fall, Las Bambas construction continues, which if I'm correct is set for production end of Q1 2016 (circa 14 months away)

We will leave the discussion for another day on the mines at Sierra Gorda (Owner: KGHM International; Location Chile), Toromocho (Owner Chinalco, Peru), Oyu Tolgoi (Owner Rio Tinto with Turquoise Hill Mongolia) and Minas Ministro Hales (Codelco Chile) all on the ramp up or coming on stream copper supplies won’t be an issue even towards the critical stage of 2018. What is at risk is the clarity in pricing… (Old data so may need ownership structure changing from January 2014.)

Considering the flow of money with higher discretionary spending, we have JD Sports (I can't use fashion in the title apologies) performance following the Christmas trading period. Over to Sports Direct with the investment arm (my view). No time for the obvious CHF Gold benefits nor silver, nor platinum. The Oil technical trading suggests a movement towards $55/bbl in the short-term (and subject to change). 

Atb Fraser

Gossip: Seems IGG weren't the only one caught off-side by the Swiss Roll! 

Morning Mumble: Contrarian Gold & CU were told...+ Ahhh'fren + AO. World + SHFT

Good Morning, a fab weekend thank you!

Delays because of an earlier than planned phone conference as people appear to not know the UK is in a different time zone than Switzerland. You are forgiven, this once!

Copper hit a past low, pending one whom you listen to this is a 4 1/2 to 5 1/2 years. All "blamed" on the lack of Chinese Stimulus and Strong U$D. Read in conjunction with EMC Friday is here...Oil will be grateful & Copper lowering demand higher levels of "fire sale" inventory and China’s factory-gate prices tanked. The leverage or lack of, save for the provision by what the Chinese (Government) banks wish to provide now, is impacting on the copper market. 

The issues aside of this, as reported by most being that the German industrial production fell unexpectedly. If it was an unforeseen event, then the consensus should have read the August figures for Germany Industrial Production (GRIPIMOM) in August weren't these an indicator of a cycle? Blomberg ran: German Industrial Output Drops Most Since 2009. 

With futures dropping to $2.755/lb and the absence of positive speculation the trend is set. Historically if oil is setting news lows and tests historic support levels then perhaps copper's chances of Circa $2.5/lb are becoming a real risk. 

The oil cycle, inconsistent data from America in terms of wage growth (or lack of) and lack of new stimulus from China is creating inconsistent moves in Gold. Gold ran up to $1230/oz. slipping a tad to circa $1224/oz. In the absence of any change in the news global there is no reason for Gold to be trending so high. All deflationary indicators are kicking in (the above) with oil being the start of the cycle of lower costs (exc. for OPEC intervention).

Afren (AFR) today came back with a kicking for shareholders with the update on Barda Rash, Kurdistan region of Iraq far from the news the market was expecting. It doesn't bode well for any negotiations for the business as there was a belief of significant upside in Barda Rash. Will this impact on the offer? Hmmm...In fact save for a significantly discounted offer, will there be one! At the current SP its hard to find little value above the current price for equity holders and if oil deteriorates further, there's a potential default (nil value for shareholders). 

AO World (AO.) third quarter trading statement pleased the market today...one shall bide my time there for the next run! At a silly level of future earnings (even today) there's little room for mistakes from AO. 

The leaky ship award goes to Quindell (QPP) and the its only a moment of time award goes to shaft sinkers (SHFT). There's some rumours out of South Africa that certain mining companies are going to provide finance. Over to Impala, ENRC (Via KazChrome) and a few others to decide on the fate...shareholders shouldn't expect too much. From 2012 the writing on the wall has not been good for Shaft Sinkers, a casualty where the equitable risks to projects should have been considered in greater depth (I know bad pun). One will expect a nice apology from a certain group regarding the outcome for Shaft Sinkers. For a quote from a "professional"...your view of shft is misguided if it ever hits 5 pence there will be something very wrong. I wonder what said person thinks to tuppence give or take a few?

With Brent at $48.84/bbl...expect some carnage in the sector. With a timely reminder that Iron Ore dropping subs $70/t, there were no surprises to the casualties. On the Atlas Iron (ASX:AGO) front they were being punished as a result. One hopes they banked significant profits...

Atb Fraser

(Edited/Proof-read as I had a little more time to correct basic errors this mornings was in a significant rush apologies.) Original here: Unedited 

Evening Bolt On: Afren (THE gossip), housebuilders, Oi'l (spelling correct) & CU Monday!

Good Evening with a manic day and meetings rudely interrupting work this afternoon...

Gossip in Nigeria and France where its suggested there's an announcement or offer being made next week. Significant caveats applied of course...could just be an echo, more importantly the offer even at these levels is low ball. Over to MPI Energy...there's a curve ball.

Interesting that the Housebuilders (Reuters) are under the cosh today Persimmon trigger (EMC). 

Those traders positioning themselves for intra-day gains got torched today with Brent circa $49.84/bbl. You (know who you are) were warned (EMC) yet for some reason gambling seems assured on a Friday. If a reader has $99.6M going spare there's a paltry $15m to be had by putting the cash to work for a few months. 

We shall ignore the obvious happenings in Copper / Comex Coper / Futures. Investors bet on copper price fall By Henry Sanderson (FT) only a month or so late! EMC (Copper),  years round up EMC Copper,  China data yet again (EMC) Copper, EMC Copper the indicator and CU any surprises (EMC)

With drinks tomorrow night do not expect too much!

Atb Fraser