Morning Mumble: Gemfields' results lacking sparkling, Allied Minds, Tullow. Savannah Resources, Thorntons and BCN, with SRX (one hopes not the new AMI).

Good Morning,

Brief today as have a number of meetings then a school trip!

Gemfields's Singapore auction closed yesterday with an average of $617.42 per carat down a near 10% on the December 14 higher quality stones auction ($688.64/carat). In the absence of a decent marketing push, the decline in number of lots and sales revenue from these higher quality stones is going to continue. Not only were the lots sold a paltry 61% of those offered (46), but also was the price achieved. Over to GEM to find a way forward.

For those that didn't top slice, sell or trade Allied Minds (ALM), today brings news of their joint venture, ABLS (Allied-Bristol Life Sciences, LLC) acquiring licenses from Harvard. ABLS is a jointly owned entity between Allied Minds and Bristol-Myers Squibb Co.

Tullow Oil (TLW) have got off a little lighter tax bill than the Ugandan Government had hoped for. Both parties have agreed to a full and final figure of $250M, near $273M below what was claimed at $473M. TLW also have got an instalment plan put in place. After consideration of the $142 million already paid TLW have a mere $36M ($108 million in total).

Providence Resources (PVR), yet again gives news that is pretty much academic in the absence of the lack of a farm out for Barryroe. The Technical Update, Newgrange Prospect, although "good news" isn't what the market is looking for. In the absence of such a deal for Barryroe, one has to wonder how long Tony O' Reilly's position remains acceptable to the shareholders. 

Surely there are not rumblings of disgruntled and 'impatient' shareholders at PVR. Or worse, has the soon to be partner realised PVR are over a barrel and hard ball is being played out.

Savannah Resources (SAV), appears to being pushed in the press, with a deal where SAV can earn up to 51% Mutamba/Jangamo with the formation of Joint Venture with Rio Tinto of all companies. There's a number of woes here, firstly investors would be wise to consider the woes of this deal. Why Rio would want to be a minority partner in any business it conducts raises significant questions about Heavy Mineral Sands. This is guaranteed to be revisited in due course, expect a fund raising in due course on the back of the "significance." 

Ormonde Mining (ORM) will be grateful of the Oaktree financing as their final results out last Wednesday, show they had around 200K ish left in the kitty. Had investors paid attention to the EMC (EMC: ORM February 2015) they'd have saved themselves near 40% and some 70% longer-term. After today's update, one would be wise to consider how the financing assists with working capital requirements, same as SAV, this will be revisited. 

Shareholders in Thornton's (THT) have been saved, with an offer from Ferrero at 145 pence. In the absence of additional interest, it’s wise to take the cash and run, especially those in more recently over the past 3 months. Hat-tip Richard S and CwC for some decent research there, have conducted none of it myself it was a pleasure free-loading for once, although very small! 

Its noted that a certain small brokerage should get more commendation for their work especially after 3 kills in near as many days! Perhaps Charles Stanley can save themselves considerable time reviewing their targets and just put 145 pence! 

With a chance of Director at Bacanora Minerals (BCN), maybe the company forgot to thank him for his services? Of significance is the change at Sierra Rutile (SRX) whom has appointed a chap associated previously with African Minerals. A brave appointment in light of SRX's recent share price recovery. 

Atb Fraser

Morning Mumble: QE...the amateur simpletons view & WRN...+++Rio, BLT, Monitise, Fever tree and Euroscepticism.

Good Morning,

Its coming and the bets are on but with the Swiss National Banks (SNB) decisive actions on Friday the market is looking for something a bit more charged. Putin will be praying for a significant cold spell, perhaps even planning a late 2015 re-entry where he can obtain leverage. QE is likely to assist this conversely promoting inflows of investment (where possible). The markets are getting hooked on drama rather than consistent and solid performance (read as also investing in crap!) with common-sense being applied. 

Unlike America where the culture may have ranges (diversity) but similar agendas, the Eurozone does not have this luxury with contrasting voters and more so agendas of protectionism (read as Germany and France albeit not a united front). 

Without pretending nor even attempting to be all things Euro or Macro, it’s looking more and more like an inverted pyramid with Germany propping up the fragile economies of the Eurozone. When considering the outcome, the markets will be cooking on gas again until they're taken off the market welfare assistance (QE). The real risk is the incapable governments utilising excuses to justify their spending rather than address their budgetary needs quicker to re-correct the fundamental issues within their economies.

The sticking point is who will be responsible for each member states debt. Its ironic that in alleged harmony the wealthier members do not want to share the load (read as take the load). So whilst the finer print is muddled through one can't help but wonder if the EU is in for some re-branding, to European Disunion. 

The conflict of interest is disliking all things EU, with yet another tier of bureaucracy where if the costs of the EU were stripped out it would be a long-term form of QE anyway. For every country contributing there's a net benefit to 2 by their membership in the EU, its a wonder its lasted this long. The EU may or may not have a determination of strength in due course if QE does not work. 

The issues of high level unemployment (Circa 10%+*) are unlikely to be improved by the EU's bond purchases as greater focus on the issues within each country are needed. France has yet again (for the third time) asked for an extension to deal with its deficit. The French are notoriously difficult to deal with when they're doing something or not...(yes thought was put into the phrase). So in the absence of economical stimulus with a focused approached its unlikely to be as effective bar a few KPI's  (Key point indicators). These are likely to be superficial living standards and welfare claimants measures (distorted by in work benefits).

In the markets today, we had Worthington Group (WRN) (still suspended pending a prospectus which should have been out by now) update on CPS Energy Resources. The question should be, with the information (surely) to hand why was it not specifically excluded in in the Company's calculation of consolidated assets, profits, sectors or geographic locations announced on the 9th January 2015. After all the deal was announced back in October 2014. 

Is this one for the regulatory team of AIM...even as far as the FCA. The company made no exemption for CPS in their calculation of the net asset value for mining, oil and gas within the announcement on the Friday 09 January, 2015. Today, in the RNS only four areas are now included: property, litigation claims, new economy and emerging markets, yet 13 days previously it includes oil, gas or energy, oops and also mining now! If you hold the stock it would be wise to call an EGM and force disclosure of everything including the prospectus. Actually why bother, if you own this stock don't read on, close the page!

Copper woke up this morning, I suspect with some draw from gold and the dollar weakening. Iron ore minnows were getting a kicking, whereas Rio and BLT shrugged off the obvious and went on an easy trading run. In the absence of traders and pension funds would Rio and BLT be circa 2,500 and 985 pence respectively? Although there’s starting to be a good argument for near bottom of cycle buying that I disagree with. Rio's ramp up and inventory sales support their thesis on expansion, will it continue?!

BLT having further issues with Manganese as Roger Bade pointed out, prices down circa 10%. Over to the Atlas Iron (ASX: AGO) whom had opportunity to get out considerably higher thanks to the DCE (Dalian Commodity Exchange) extension in trading hours. Gold and silver both stabilising and awaiting the next indicators its over to ECB QE. Oil likely to benefit as well with the steady appreciation continuing, appreciating to circa $55/bbl give of take 3% drift between WTI and Brent.

AB Foods (ABF) finally giving in to common-sense with significant selling. Does it really take that long to digest the results? EMC view January 15, 2015, who'd have thought it and time to quote myself: "With little upside on the current SP, it’s wise not to carry profits much past the news. Under review for the short, now January 2015 has arrived." Will a DRIP (Dividend re-investment plan) assist? I doubt it...

Hulme Capital had a few issues this morning with the 'wording', for which having wanted to find out more had some diplomatic clarification from two companies in RNS REM & UKOG after this morning's Dismissal of Adviser REM & UKOG. By sheer coincidence both with a related party associated to both companies, Mr David Lenigas.

Monitise's (MONI) trading update & initiation of strategic review, informs us its up for sale with the price reacting in the right manner. With UK Mail (UKM) coming out the reporting starting blocks 10 days ago Royal Mail (RMG) Nine Months Trading Update had little in the way of surprises and was the long to the news. With little commentary (in fact none) on fuel cost benefits, RMG have missed an opportunity to promote their own stock, improving margins and energy costs reducing. 

Limited time for some, including Tullow (TLW) and Gulf Keystone (GKP) but to my left eye Malcy has saved myself via his blog today. Fever Tree (FEVR) pre-close update come with no surprises from a quality label. FEVR are the Carlsberg of tonics in my view! Having been drinking FEVR tonic for a good time, its about the only additive to gin I can differentiate in taste save for Hendricks Gin and Adnams Copperhouse Gin after one.

Atb Fraser

*Unemployment stats: Greece 25%, Spain 23%, Cyprus 16%, Croatia 16%, Portugal 14%, Italy 13%, Slovakia 12%, Bulgaria 11%, Ireland 10%, Latvia 10%, France 10%....all 17 others sub 10% with an average of circa 10%. 

Morning Mumble: January dieting...Associated British Foods, Atlas Iron (wonders would...) and Oil. ALO forgot to tell the market about

Good Morning, with the market taking priority there will be no future apologies for the tardiness of updates nor urgency placed on any messages enquiring what time its going to posted. 

Morning Mumble: The diets begin in earnest... and the FT runs with Oil projects worth billions put on hold. The high impact drilling has always been questioned even at circa $100, quite why Premier Oil (PMO's) entered into Rockhopper’s Sea Lion on the economics is a question not of hindsight but of value for shareholders that shouldn't have been completed at this time. PMO's share price has gone only one way since Sea Lion Farm In, pre-the oil drop. 

PMO's all-in-costs from there trading and operations update will offer safety to a lot of oil investors. With some alleged low risk drilling (Falklands & Indonesia) and debt without the immediate concerns or RBL criteria, PMO is likely to have some potential upside. Personally, save for intra-day it’s difficult to justify any oil holding in the current market until the market has digested the changes. (See TLW). 

Tullow (TLW) today have come out with similar, giving clearer guidance on costs, albeit one would be wise to revisit their year-end accounts and work through the costs (limited time today). Tullow Oil plc - Trading Statement & Operational Update with write-off's of circa $1.2B and potentially more, one will wait to see what Tullow do next with murmurings in the market this morning. Over to Exxon Mobil (XOM) to acquire on the cheap with limited options for shareholders, the time to strike is "near." having cast their eye over this company before with the upside potential even in today's market. Do not expect the update to do much in the market, without some validated gossip of TLW losing its independence. 

With Game Digital (GMD) showing how margins and sales were impacted by Black Friday (Compete or Retreat), Home Retail Groups (HOME) update was with no hope of an improvement in comparison to GMD.

With Associated British Food (ABF) trading update today endorse repeated debates for divesting the food divisions, declining margins (as expected). The Sugar alone EMC Food Prices would impact and the EMC Duncan Fox ABF summing things up nicely. The company's trading outlook promoting (read as selling) the company nicely:

Trading outlook

This year we expect Primark's expansion to continue and Grocery, Ingredients and Agriculture to make further progress in operating profit on the back of their very positive performance last year. With the fall in EU sugar prices and weakness in the world sugar price, we expect a further large reduction in profit from AB Sugar, but this will put much of the effect of the structural changes in EU prices, seen over the last three years, behind us. We expect a decline in adjusted operating profit for the group but the impact on earnings will be mitigated by much lower tax and interest charges. Sterling's strength against most of our major trading currencies will also have a negative effect and we now expect a marginal decline in adjusted earnings per share for the group for the full year.

It will be interesting to see how my view on the not to short from November pans out! With my belief previous news being totally validated. (Disc: Long) Bold is mine. The market is now ignoring the Sugar and Ingredients divisions, so will look solely at the positives of Primark's performance the star in the group and making valuations difficult for traders. Closing on the news for the myopic trading and banking profits (myself). With little upside on the current SP, it’s wise not to carry profits much past the news. Under review for the short, now January 2015 has arrived.

It would of course be rude not to mention Atlas Iron (ASX: AGO), some of the dedicated have correctly spotted the shorting opportunity post-Christmas. As always, comments on AGO will be published if there are no obscenities and relevant. It is with pleasure that two significantly underwater holders decided to short post the Christmas nonsense appreciation, and have actually banked a break-even on their investment. Having held for their near 3 years from AU$3 they have actually broken even on shorts...have they been converted. Kudos! One hopes lessons have been learnt.

With Crude Oil finding support (and copper), it’s no wonder there's some hope for the obvious leveraged candidates. Brent and WTI both trading near par at $47.40/bbl (approx.). So today, the warning was on the door, the flags were waving, LGO Energy (LGO) conducts a placing to raise £1 million raised for Goudron, and Cedros update. Surely not, EMC LGO & Copper Coverage (Fumes) (Diet begins in earnest) seeing the writing on the wall, today I close my short and await the "constant" news flow again. LGO's Nomad and Brokers will obvious assure us no one knew about the placing and it wasn't broadcast far and wide and there was no selling down to fund the placement. Strangely no matter what they say, LGO has yet again performed predictably. Whatever happened to LGO's credit facility? 

Staying with the LGO theme, Alecto Minerals (ALO) placing, congratulations to whomever got this away...judging by past performance. Who'd have thought it with the importance of ALO's Completion of Analysis of Historic Drilling Results at Kerboulé Gold Project, Burkina Faso. Can anyone identify what regulatory news is contained within the 6 January 2015 announcement. The company today announces a placing to maintain working capital (read as sustenance) whilst discussions progress on potential joint ventures. ALO could have saved some RNS costs and updated the market on the Burkina Faso issues both with Government (CNT (no joke) and disturbances stopping operations for the Karma Mine operated by True Gold. Obviously other companies would be wise to update the market accordingly, after all gold is highly portable, such as Avocet (AVM) and Amara Mining (AMA), whom I'm led to believe operate not far away or have licenses near. Centamin Egypt (CEY) really need to bring the cosh out and put ALO out its misery...no premium share based takeover. The shareholders would immediately benefit. 

The final thoughts without reading too much into it the third quarter results of Mothercare (MTC) is why do they have shops? Investors should be considering graphite within the lithium squeeze, no cryptic messages just common-sense. Its always pleasing when investors re-read announcements and come back to reality, ZIOC (ZIOC EMC 30th September 2015 with ZOIC typo). (Disc: no positions short now.) Sirius Minerals (SXX) disappoints today with an update harbour facilities application. Perhaps the company can consider the difference between approvals and applications. This decisions is surprising seeing as there is the potential within the process to modify the application. Impatience will punish...

Atb Fraser.