Morning Mumble: a euro thrown across the bow of Bourgeoisiem, Petra Diamond's (PDL), GEMD + Grocers

Good Morning, 

There shall be a few sore heads in Greece today and Troika's headache is just starting. Fear not, you will not find the in-depth implications or thesis on Greece leaving the Euro here.  The risks are somewhat being ignored, the outcome for the rest of Europe may be more significant than the press and Government's acknowledge. Simply put, if one feels like a kicked dog in the corner, even the most placid of people get up, fight or leave.

You'd expect nothing less to read the risk aware view here. The EU would be wise to gauge whether Greece is part of a trend that is spreading in popularity across Europe. With the increase in extreme views in the UK and across Europe there is something that the EU isn't addressing that is causing discontent. Greece, as the potential bellwether of voters across Europe warning. After all, there's a little bit of extremism in all and it requires groups to create trends for people to jump on the bandwagon and turn the switch on for the moderates. Examples being UKIP, where the other UK parties are adopting moderate attempts at similar policies.

Greece may have been the master of its own destiny and financial distress, now it would appear they are again, BBCAnti-austerity Syriza wins Greek election. The global assessors will ignore why Syriza has won this election (via coalition) and focus on the financial implications for the EU. 

The Greek elections are being misunderstood by the markets. Greece is blamed for the slide in the Euro, oil and commodity prices and not the US inventory levels being the highest in 85 years nor Saudi's views or business as usual. Greece should be viewed as a potential indicator of political fashions and trends. This is likely to have greater implications than any financial damage and benefits the European Disunion. 

The jury for gold appreciation is out for the time being on the Greek elections with the implications in oil already being misunderstood. The flight to safety as Syriza get their feet under the table by renegotiation and face-saving of greater importance than financial prudence. Surely years of pain for a stronger economy over the longer-term is better; we have prime examples of excessive spending under Labour Governments in the UK. A quick perusal of historic UK government borrowing will clarify the position.

It would be wise to revisit EMED's projections before spending all those gains on the final permitting being obtained. With copper catching a cold in Asia with little support for base metals (absence of long speculation) trading at circa $2.46/lbs, EMED's return for investors now needs to be considered appropriately. The long-term view being if they can survive this market and minimise costs now they're likely to go from strength to strength. Cashflow will be welcome but how much of it remains the question. 

As Roger Bade points out this morning the price assumptions in the Technical Report from 2013 (here) might need a few revisions. To quote EMED (Page 9 Tech Report), "A copper spot price assumption of $3.50/lb used in the projects economics analysis compares to relative current market copper prices of $3.70lbs ($8,200/t) and a trailing 5 year average above $3.00/lb.” 

When reading through the technical report to net present value (NPV) if one was to apply a 12.5% discount, the project would be currently losing money at sub $2.50/lbs. Estimates (my own), suggest it would be better to increase to 9m/t p.a. and raise a full $254M, to fund through to larger expansion and reduced costs that "could" be completed by end of year two. The funding would give viability to the long investors and transparency. The relevance of copper has an impact on the secured loan facility that was able to paid in copper subject to the price being above $6,613.86/t, although there's still time for the market to recover it would be wise to acknowledge these risks. Over to the market to be despondent on this…5m/t's is simply not viable in the current market and outlook.

Anglo American (AAL) shareholders have finally seen sense, in fact the whole sector has...can we see some realistic pricing to entice longer-term shareholders into the stock. Over to Credit Suisse with their preferred AAL and RIO (Rio Tinto) for a little review? We hope AAL can find some muppet for their Dawson and Foxleigh mines l. With Q4 results due 28th Jan, we can look forward to something spectacular. 

Petra Diamonds (PDL) have announced what the market knew in terms of prices softening but maintaining a common-sense. It's hoped the dividend will provide some hope for the stock, but this will be unlikely today. No matter what you call it, it’s a revision downwards, over to Awal Bank SA to give it another kicking...with 13.2 million shares needing a home. As a result of PDL, I decided to sell Gem Diamonds (GEMD). 

For those supermarket/grocer investors and the people wishing to expose shorting funds, it would be wise to read the Delhaize Group 2014 revenues and preliminary results. Turnaround stories in grocers are possible as shown by Delhaize Group (Euronext Brussels: DELB) & listed NYSE if you want to play Euro/USD arb. DELB was a prime shorting candidate a 3+ years ago, it's now recovered, with results coming in strong today the longs in the recovery are benefiting. With Europe likely to be the indicator of how grocers recover it would be wise to follow a few including Carrefour. Roble S.A. yet again having a nice coup back in May 2012 (See: EMC Short Sellers) 

Carrefour could just be coming in to play, Les Echoes (The Moulin family owners of Galeries Lafayette increasestake in Carrefour to 9.5%) and the English version, via Reuters. Whether the Moulin family increase their stake further is another question. They say no others have a differing view. 

With most aware of the Igas Energy debacle, Statement re Finance Facility, there's a gossip of some large bets going in! Better late than never...

Atb Fraser