Good Morning , very busy with an impromptu invite for breakfast with an infamous but discreet (yeah right) shorter yesterday which put back a number of items. It was a little out the blue, but a pleasure all the same to discuss the positives/negatives. Perhaps just a little higher up the food chain. Had one known they were readers it would have been wise to delay some items for personal benefit or charge a fee.
The iron ore carnage is now having a major impact on the also-rans such as AMI. They were allegedly close to financing a concentrator deal now it looks like the debt-holders will be taking control of AMI then merging (my view) or viewed as a major haircut for shareholders.
Without a doubt there's better coverage regarding the oil than here, its sadly not my bag in terms of the companies, but the price is. Oil's woes are about to get worse, not only are companies now risking security of supply over the price but more so a number of companies are starting Christmas early. Its rumoured Vitol have seen a deterioration in demand and as such its fair to assume Glencore (GLEN) will have the same issues.
GLEN have other issues that will be supported by their Copper and Nickel and production increasing in Chad. This will almost certainly offset the deterioration in prices to a large degree. With earnings on the decline, once the 'strategic' purchases are out the way, GLEN may see their biggest markets in decline (save for a stimulus). The pressure for GLEN to do a deal is likely to have increased, RIO is looking more and more unlikely.
Without a doubt there's better coverage regarding the oil than here, its sadly not my bag in terms of the companies, but the price is. Oil's woes are about to get worse, not only are companies now risking security of supply over the price but more so a number of companies are starting Christmas early. Its rumoured Vitol have seen a deterioration in demand and as such its fair to assume Glencore (GLEN) will have the same issues.
GLEN have other issues that will be supported by their Copper and Nickel and production increasing in Chad. This will almost certainly offset the deterioration in prices to a large degree. With earnings on the decline, once the 'strategic' purchases are out the way, GLEN may see their biggest markets in decline (save for a stimulus). The pressure for GLEN to do a deal is likely to have increased, RIO is looking more and more unlikely.
It was with disappointment that when reading Gem Diamonds (GEMD) Interim Management Statement for Q3 2014, the prices have admittedly been a little under pressure (more recently) but the concern comes in many forms. Parties should have taken profits +£2 back in August, the trade was sell/short Petra Diamonds (PDL) back in July and long GEMD. The lack of clarity in dividend is still anyone's guess with the cautious statements about the industry, GEMD appear better set to ride the issues out so a hold for those with a longer term view than the end of a Friday.
Fortescue Metals Group (ASX: FMG) is saved for now, heading back a smidge of $3 a share, with some sighs. FMG and Atlas Iron (AGO) are becoming the Eastenders version of Iron Ore. Quite why International Mining & Infrastructure Corporation plc (AIM: IMIC) is trading above the cash value is another question people can perhaps answer!
It was evidenced today that investors or the market have no idea about returns, Condor Gold La India Project Pre-Feasibility Study and Preliminary Economic Assessment. Perhaps we're being unreasonable to expect a rate of return for shareholders above 20%. To be fair Roger Bade's 25% measure is bloody good.
Those that bought into the last placing (circa 90 pence & the short) could potentially get out with less of a loss. Financing is key to La India (D'oh) and Condor (CNR) PEA & PFS have just made that harder (my view). For a comparison, one would be wise to save a copy and compare with Amara Mining's by March 2015.
Save for any upgrade and the requirement for 8,000m to 10,000m of drilling to assess the 300,000 oz gold in open pittable inferred resource Condor isn't a favourite! Both the inferred and artisanal reprocessing is a hopeful, but suffice to say, Condors figures may be positive, but they certainly are not enticing. One needs a good run on gold before the economics of La India stack up...perhaps they can find a J/V with a calculator.
Keep a watchful eye on the price of aluminium over the next few weeks...
Atb Fraser
Sadly no time to cover the EMED items...please see liabilities and over to ASTOR.
ReplyDeleteKEFI holders will be pleased they can have their stock back and there's no shorts here. Quite why anyone was holding KEFI post the NYOta capital reduction is the chat they can have with themselves about. This Christmas I am proposing a competition for my KEFI shares. I would not go out and buy that new car, super yacht or even FT weekender just yet.
It is with sadness that AQP Aquarious Platinum has met my target and so for the first time in a very long time, I have no positions there. One is running out of guaranteed shorts, perhaps I would be wise to take one commentators advise and go out and get a life!
For the Australian contingent, its with the utmost respect that if you all think that Atlas Iron can reduce there costs to sub $50/t then I suggest you don't walk passed that sniffer dog at the UK airport, when coming to campaign for the arrest of shorters for creating disorderly markets! Quite why some of you are still holding from $4 a share is something that really should be discussed...long live the bulls! If you were to post items without so much profanity in them I would publish them willing to inform readers of the bull case, I did type case there not...
http://www.mining.com/kyrgyz-republic-seizes-stans-energy-rare-earth-project-99525/ Stans Energy have just had another kick in the proverbial...I can recommend them an excellent International Arb lawyer if they need one!
Atb Fraser
Fraser- Hi- just back from a great lunch with the missus and friends- perhaps too regular an occurrence nowadays...
ReplyDeleteRe IMIC- just no trade there so like many other non traded AIM stocks the price seems to bear no resemblance to the fair value. I have one line up for next week where the mkt cap is just a tenth of the fair assets value and will confirm as soon as Ive traded. I will have to access via a particular broker it seems-- very cloak and dagger and no liquidity but some hopes here re a buyback and asset realisations too. I am happy to tie a % up in some v illiquid positions and just wait. It does pay off if you can afford to take this approach but I do accept most cant do this as the bills need paying.
Re Stans- yes, that did make me laugh- the end game here could see
1. Stans next cease some Centerra shares and then possible
2. the Kyrgyzs cease the Kumtor mine
3. and then Stans and Centerra fire off arb cases
just like chess, only in real life... the arb lawyers must be rubbing their hands in glee :-)) Not much share price reaction to the latest move, the price currently indicates the unlikelihood of anything amicable happening here. Do the Kygyzs have a buyer lined up for the mine... and have they had their heads tested??
Cheers. The Leggie
Fraser- re my cryptic note of 14/11/14, just made a small move on the said comatose stock TJI (Tejoori Holdings), which has $15m in land plots, $4m in cash/bonds and a dubious $4.8m 10.1% stake in Belcon Holdings AG (which I am ignoring for valuation purposes). Still the mkt cap was $2.2m before my messing around this am, which may well stir up some momentum plays. The key point for me is that they report in mid Dec, they have mentioned buybacks in the past reports and they have some decent plots in Dubai and the share price dropped from 40c to 8c following the in line half year report in 3/14. V volatile and not an easy trade, but I have a few now and will see what the stirring up does over the next week, but expecting some moves in their 12/14 report in reality.
ReplyDeleteCheers. The Leggie