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Friday 21 February 2014
Churchill Mining - Trading Suspension from 24th February 2014
I still believe that many bb investors think this is the final case judgement here, which we know it isn't and the jurisdiction finding next Monday is so binary Ive taken some of my CHL cards off the table this am via a top slice. I do expect CHL to have the jurisdiction ruling go in their favour BUT when the bb investors find out it is just another step towards payment I can see a positive RNS bringing a negative share price movement.
How does everyone else see this? It would be interesting to know.
Hi Leggie I too have noticed some of the misunderstandings going on regarding Mondays announcement. I can see why you can see it as a cause for some concern. I do still see it rising on monday off the back of a positive result on the basis of it ticking the box in the process for churchill with drifting lower action after. There seems to be some reality kicking in that churchill are not receiving $1bn on monday now so many may jump out before close tonight. Unfortunately i wasnt in a position to sell when it was at 40 but i hope to see it revisit on monday. Personally my current satisfaction is based on feeling i committed enough to be happy with profits but feeling no stress regarding the chance of it tanking on monday like Rurulec. I hope others who perhaps over committed to RUR don't do the same again! Still watching Zincox, hoping for a drift down before mid march. Do you think theres much chance of a small placing over the next few weeks? Can't help but feel like there might be one on the cards. Regards Oli
Been out for the afternoon so just catching up now- CHL closed just below 30p, which is what I got for a parcel of shares in the morning, so Im not unhappy. The bulletin board chatter (I watch BBs but don't participate in ramps/deramps) that I saw made it clear that many piled in expected a get a lottery type cheque in the post in a weeks time and without any real clue what was being decided on Monday. I do believe that CHL should get a Yes re the jurisdiction ruling, based on what is in the public domain but the ROI may decide to play the long game and then we could be waiting until 2016 for the payment decision. I could well buy back in the stake I sold today on Monday afternoon, if Im right on the day traders running when they work out what is happening. Lets see.
Re ZOX- the £5m fund raise was only in 11/13 and I reckon that they are at breakeven now, plus half was for the second plant works and working capital was topped up so I wouldn't expect a further begging bowl until they have proven the S Korean plant is working well and the tech is completely understood (Q3 would be the earliest in my book) at which time it could be to help fund the Turkish plant build (I favour them over Thailand and Russia for a few reasons). Zinc seems to be past its worst days now and IFC will help re the second plant too.
Apologies for my slowness I've been busy this week with little time to trade, some alcohol related technical issues may be to blame.
Re: CHL, I closed Ian and my longs, sadly Ian got more than I as I opened his account first! Like yourselves Oli and Leggie, there have been some messages left suggesting they believe it's a win day for CHL on the RNS. It's a positive but its certainly not cheque day without Indonesia bowing and offering a settlement on the news. The chances are slim.
Ian and I, plus a few others still have equity in the game but not current Spreadbets short or long. I elected to do very similar to Rurelec on this as generally my equity is small percentage of the initial positions.
With Zincox (ZOX.L) there may be some slippage Oli as time is a wonderful factor is a weakening share price whereby managers and investors often erode their original thoughts. This is one thing I use to consider shorts especially after bad trading statements and the like. However, Oli what do you expect from the SP, if it is significantly higher than the current SP then perhaps taking tranches is the way forward. One often should ignore the trading fee *(assuming its reasonable) to take positions. Or a decent terminal where there are significantly lower fees. 20 pence seems to be the level of support (at the moment).
Vedanta for those following the story, I believe will have an offer from A K Agarwal via Volcan Investments. This I believe presents as a significant risk just in their holding albeit it may offer some protection if they were to raise monies in the market but I suspect it’s likely the model is more suited to private ownership. Due to the combination/Multiples of risks I have now stopped trading Vedanta, the risks of a low ball offer and or dilution in terms of fundraisings means it’s beyond my tiny little brain to factor it.
For an update on Ben, I'm pleased to say he left a message, which I'm sure Ian will get round to publishing when he's back from this 'festival' which sounded more like an orgy to me but each to their own!
My thought for the weekend, is Morrison's, there are things a foot there being dismissed by the press that may or may not come to a full blown offer, however I believe 'Sir Ken's' percentage is immaterial to the end game and his consultation within the process I don't think has or was valued till he was asked to comment. Perhaps things have changed, but it’s certainly one to follow. The Net effect of any business assets being sold would avoid the need for some of the excessive capital demands of the longer term. Perhaps one of the financiers of it will take property (rental income) for their share? Who knows....
Evening all It will be interestingly to see what time of day its announced. If the afternoon i hope resumption of trading is left until Tuesday morning! Best of luck to us all. I thought i had seen a tempering of expectations on friday afternoon but alas no... It seems we can expect £1/£3/£5.15 or even £13 per share tmrw... LOL oh dear oh dear Thanks for the comments on ZOX to you both. Your probably right with ye tranche buying Fraser. The expected plant closure for maintenance is upon us in march so hopefully a squeeze down may occur along the way! Its certainly one of the companies im most eager to own for the coming 3-6months, to which there are not many! Congrats on your NWR short Fraser, the drops on Thursday and friday may suggest another bad RNS could be soon! Well done on EMED Leggie, hopefully the next week or so deliver you the gains the patience deserves with that one!! Not in MRW but read the following in the mail today- http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-2565666/Morrisons-stores-sell-raise-dividend-shareholders.html?ICO=most_read_module
Fraser and all
ReplyDeleteI still believe that many bb investors think this is the final case judgement here, which we know it isn't and the jurisdiction finding next Monday is so binary Ive taken some of my CHL cards off the table this am via a top slice. I do expect CHL to have the jurisdiction ruling go in their favour BUT when the bb investors find out it is just another step towards payment I can see a positive RNS bringing a negative share price movement.
How does everyone else see this? It would be interesting to know.
Cheers. The Leggie
Hi Leggie
ReplyDeleteI too have noticed some of the misunderstandings going on regarding Mondays announcement. I can see why you can see it as a cause for some concern. I do still see it rising on monday off the back of a positive result on the basis of it ticking the box in the process for churchill with drifting lower action after. There seems to be some reality kicking in that churchill are not receiving $1bn on monday now so many may jump out before close tonight. Unfortunately i wasnt in a position to sell when it was at 40 but i hope to see it revisit on monday. Personally my current satisfaction is based on feeling i committed enough to be happy with profits but feeling no stress regarding the chance of it tanking on monday like Rurulec. I hope others who perhaps over committed to RUR don't do the same again!
Still watching Zincox, hoping for a drift down before mid march. Do you think theres much chance of a small placing over the next few weeks? Can't help but feel like there might be one on the cards.
Regards
Oli
Oli
ReplyDeleteBeen out for the afternoon so just catching up now- CHL closed just below 30p, which is what I got for a parcel of shares in the morning, so Im not unhappy. The bulletin board chatter (I watch BBs but don't participate in ramps/deramps) that I saw made it clear that many piled in expected a get a lottery type cheque in the post in a weeks time and without any real clue what was being decided on Monday. I do believe that CHL should get a Yes re the jurisdiction ruling, based on what is in the public domain but the ROI may decide to play the long game and then we could be waiting until 2016 for the payment decision. I could well buy back in the stake I sold today on Monday afternoon, if Im right on the day traders running when they work out what is happening. Lets see.
Re ZOX- the £5m fund raise was only in 11/13 and I reckon that they are at breakeven now, plus half was for the second plant works and working capital was topped up so I wouldn't expect a further begging bowl until they have proven the S Korean plant is working well and the tech is completely understood (Q3 would be the earliest in my book) at which time it could be to help fund the Turkish plant build (I favour them over Thailand and Russia for a few reasons). Zinc seems to be past its worst days now and IFC will help re the second plant too.
Hope this helps- have fun on Monday :-))
Cheers. The Leggie
Good Afternoon/Morning,
ReplyDeleteApologies for my slowness I've been busy this week with little time to trade, some alcohol related technical issues may be to blame.
Re: CHL, I closed Ian and my longs, sadly Ian got more than I as I opened his account first! Like yourselves Oli and Leggie, there have been some messages left suggesting they believe it's a win day for CHL on the RNS. It's a positive but its certainly not cheque day without Indonesia bowing and offering a settlement on the news. The chances are slim.
Ian and I, plus a few others still have equity in the game but not current Spreadbets short or long. I elected to do very similar to Rurelec on this as generally my equity is small percentage of the initial positions.
With Zincox (ZOX.L) there may be some slippage Oli as time is a wonderful factor is a weakening share price whereby managers and investors often erode their original thoughts. This is one thing I use to consider shorts especially after bad trading statements and the like. However, Oli what do you expect from the SP, if it is significantly higher than the current SP then perhaps taking tranches is the way forward. One often should ignore the trading fee *(assuming its reasonable) to take positions. Or a decent terminal where there are significantly lower fees. 20 pence seems to be the level of support (at the moment).
Vedanta for those following the story, I believe will have an offer from A K Agarwal via Volcan Investments. This I believe presents as a significant risk just in their holding albeit it may offer some protection if they were to raise monies in the market but I suspect it’s likely the model is more suited to private ownership. Due to the combination/Multiples of risks I have now stopped trading Vedanta, the risks of a low ball offer and or dilution in terms of fundraisings means it’s beyond my tiny little brain to factor it.
For an update on Ben, I'm pleased to say he left a message, which I'm sure Ian will get round to publishing when he's back from this 'festival' which sounded more like an orgy to me but each to their own!
My thought for the weekend, is Morrison's, there are things a foot there being dismissed by the press that may or may not come to a full blown offer, however I believe 'Sir Ken's' percentage is immaterial to the end game and his consultation within the process I don't think has or was valued till he was asked to comment. Perhaps things have changed, but it’s certainly one to follow. The Net effect of any business assets being sold would avoid the need for some of the excessive capital demands of the longer term. Perhaps one of the financiers of it will take property (rental income) for their share? Who knows....
Have a good weekend! Atb Fraser
Evening all
ReplyDeleteIt will be interestingly to see what time of day its announced. If the afternoon i hope resumption of trading is left until Tuesday morning! Best of luck to us all. I thought i had seen a tempering of expectations on friday afternoon but alas no... It seems we can expect £1/£3/£5.15 or even £13 per share tmrw... LOL oh dear oh dear
Thanks for the comments on ZOX to you both. Your probably right with ye tranche buying Fraser. The expected plant closure for maintenance is upon us in march so hopefully a squeeze down may occur along the way! Its certainly one of the companies im most eager to own for the coming 3-6months, to which there are not many!
Congrats on your NWR short Fraser, the drops on Thursday and friday may suggest another bad RNS could be soon!
Well done on EMED Leggie, hopefully the next week or so deliver you the gains the patience deserves with that one!!
Not in MRW but read the following in the mail today- http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-2565666/Morrisons-stores-sell-raise-dividend-shareholders.html?ICO=most_read_module
Regards
Oli