A few people have asked about the risk issues with the International Arbitration Claim for Rurelec and the risk of non-payment. Firstly, it has to be acknowledged that any International Arbitration claim is enforceable in terms of seizing assets this doesn't mean there won't be any game playing by Bolivia. Please see the Argentina bond holders actions, to see how they're enforceable. Its not something Rurelec need but likewise, Bolivia's Bond market (capital raising for countries) will be stressed without a settlement and potentially cost more.
Its small scale compared to the Debt that Bolivia owe internationally, however this is underpinned by some significant growth within the country. Debt to GDP is a relatively low 33% at around $7B, so Rurelec's award and all the others 'are' affordable. Bolivia can afford to settle the $142m claimed (plus costs) so it's not the end of world. Likewise it's not like they don't have an asset to back this, it's not a 'whiplash' injury caused in the International Car park.
Three things expected out of the ruling:
1) Bolivia cannot be seen to agree with any ruling, it's a political game as well. The ruling party will have to appear 'the victim' within their country despite themselves causing the problem. They nationalised the asset, no one else...so I am sure we'll hear them squeal like a stuck pig! That doesn't mean they won't pay as they'll also leverage off "being seen to comply with International Law etc..." We'll pay but protest too much!
2) Any award above £50m won't be payable immediately, but will certainly underpin the SP, assuming it's above the current booked value of the claim.
3) I envisage there being some form of timescale agreed with Rurelec and Bolivia for the payment, albeit my money is on late payment. As Bolivia have agreed to transparency its more than likely they'll comply and remember the Panel does have the authority to order security for claims.
Bolivia will pay, after they had some election type profiteering of the 'hard done by Bolivian's protecting their own assets.
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