Morning Mumble: What a week, a quick recap!

Good Morning,

What a week, with most pre-election polls being a joke. Having thought that the UK would have ended up with a Labour SNP coalition, the UK should be pleased. A slim majority means that nothing too drastic is likely to happen (yet) but more so, Labour's financial record isn't put to the test again. Expect European issues to be a proverbial echo of will they won't they. 

There is a plus to this election, Ed Balls is out of politics (for now), whether you agree or not, its certainly my Christmas and I suspect one Sharon Shoesmith will be pleased with. So as a thank you for all Ed did whilst in Government and in opposition, Good Bye! (BBC).

Despite the dollar being in good form, the hedge funds and Chinese are betting on their own recovery, for most it'll be a positive. For Weatherly International (WTI), the price has to travel significantly before they're in the money. WTI's trading update is dire, and if they cannot get costs under control this placing will look expensive with cash costs per tonne of $7,763. For old money that's around $3.50/lb ish.

The bet is whether WTI can ramp up and reduce their costs, with guidance slipping back. The market may have some relief after their shining knight (Orion Mine Finance) didn't have them over a barrel and instead anted up (USD) $5.2 million at 2 pence. Why the cost overrun facility wasn't used is another question, perhaps an indicator of things to come! 

Laden with debt and debt payments due from November, what's the odds more cash is needed. WTI should now praying for a large bull run to near $3.75/lb or their costs reducing 20%, both are a challenge, with constrained production its not looking pretty. CEO out, COO in, over to Orion to dictate the show. 

On the 21st May those Glencore (GLEN) holders can look forward to receiving their Lonmin (LMI) stock (AGM approval). With a slight recovery in the price, as the shorts closed, it’s not looking pretty for LMI. With their discussions to reduce costs, it’s all too little too late. Simply put, LMI's figures don't stack up and after the last debacle where muppets gift-aided $817m (09 November 2012). Time now to pass the cap around again, or conduct some drastic cuts. If the latter doesn’t work, at least they’ve got a few more willing muppets in the form of post-Glencore holders. The time is now for more cash psychologically, a fully under-written gift-aider at 85 pence should entice most.

The cuts are 'perhaps' too little too late, those firms that bought into the rights issue had a choice, good money after bad? Will there be a recovery? No doubt, but simply put, the money may just be safer under the mattress! More so, if these cuts can be imposed/implemented without an impact on production then why wasn't it conducted earlier! LMI is one for the list of management to beware of when investing, if their names pop up elsewhere. LMI should be managed as a social enterprise by the Republic of South Africa. As such, they may be able to entice the IMF to waste some monies as well, perhaps even the Chinese version?

On a brighter note, Sirius Minerals (SXX) informed us the special committee date has been set for the 30th June (Put it in your diary now). Still in sector, Highfield Resources has its cap out for $106M to build move forward their Spanish licenses. Muga being central to the licenses in Spain is key, and initial indications are there's been a positive uptake in raising the cash, albeit that has the caveat of "at what price." One ASX trader suggests its a mere 5% discount to close...

Randgold Resources (RRS), Q1 Results were out, it’s very hard to justify the valuation, save for being protectionary on the basis of if one must invest in gold, then perhaps bigger is better?!?! RRS note the supply of gold is slowing (only marginally currently), which may actually assist the price and save some of the higher cost Co's that are just about surviving. 

RRS is a traders dream currently, although as it continues so do the risks of a break out, but not yet. RRS remain silent on acquisitions. A well-placed geologist bumped into some RRS personnel in another African nation...one wonders what they could have been doing there, perhaps their Satellite Navigation went wonky coming from Mali to Côte d’Ivoire?!

Atb Fraser

Morning Mumble: January dieting...Associated British Foods, Atlas Iron (wonders would...) and Oil. ALO forgot to tell the market about

Good Morning, with the market taking priority there will be no future apologies for the tardiness of updates nor urgency placed on any messages enquiring what time its going to posted. 

Morning Mumble: The diets begin in earnest... and the FT runs with Oil projects worth billions put on hold. The high impact drilling has always been questioned even at circa $100, quite why Premier Oil (PMO's) entered into Rockhopper’s Sea Lion on the economics is a question not of hindsight but of value for shareholders that shouldn't have been completed at this time. PMO's share price has gone only one way since Sea Lion Farm In, pre-the oil drop. 

PMO's all-in-costs from there trading and operations update will offer safety to a lot of oil investors. With some alleged low risk drilling (Falklands & Indonesia) and debt without the immediate concerns or RBL criteria, PMO is likely to have some potential upside. Personally, save for intra-day it’s difficult to justify any oil holding in the current market until the market has digested the changes. (See TLW). 

Tullow (TLW) today have come out with similar, giving clearer guidance on costs, albeit one would be wise to revisit their year-end accounts and work through the costs (limited time today). Tullow Oil plc - Trading Statement & Operational Update with write-off's of circa $1.2B and potentially more, one will wait to see what Tullow do next with murmurings in the market this morning. Over to Exxon Mobil (XOM) to acquire on the cheap with limited options for shareholders, the time to strike is "near." having cast their eye over this company before with the upside potential even in today's market. Do not expect the update to do much in the market, without some validated gossip of TLW losing its independence. 

With Game Digital (GMD) showing how margins and sales were impacted by Black Friday (Compete or Retreat), Home Retail Groups (HOME) update was with no hope of an improvement in comparison to GMD.

With Associated British Food (ABF) trading update today endorse repeated debates for divesting the food divisions, declining margins (as expected). The Sugar alone EMC Food Prices would impact and the EMC Duncan Fox ABF summing things up nicely. The company's trading outlook promoting (read as selling) the company nicely:

Trading outlook

This year we expect Primark's expansion to continue and Grocery, Ingredients and Agriculture to make further progress in operating profit on the back of their very positive performance last year. With the fall in EU sugar prices and weakness in the world sugar price, we expect a further large reduction in profit from AB Sugar, but this will put much of the effect of the structural changes in EU prices, seen over the last three years, behind us. We expect a decline in adjusted operating profit for the group but the impact on earnings will be mitigated by much lower tax and interest charges. Sterling's strength against most of our major trading currencies will also have a negative effect and we now expect a marginal decline in adjusted earnings per share for the group for the full year.

It will be interesting to see how my view on the not to short from November pans out! With my belief previous news being totally validated. (Disc: Long) Bold is mine. The market is now ignoring the Sugar and Ingredients divisions, so will look solely at the positives of Primark's performance the star in the group and making valuations difficult for traders. Closing on the news for the myopic trading and banking profits (myself). With little upside on the current SP, it’s wise not to carry profits much past the news. Under review for the short, now January 2015 has arrived.

It would of course be rude not to mention Atlas Iron (ASX: AGO), some of the dedicated have correctly spotted the shorting opportunity post-Christmas. As always, comments on AGO will be published if there are no obscenities and relevant. It is with pleasure that two significantly underwater holders decided to short post the Christmas nonsense appreciation, and have actually banked a break-even on their investment. Having held for their near 3 years from AU$3 they have actually broken even on shorts...have they been converted. Kudos! One hopes lessons have been learnt.

With Crude Oil finding support (and copper), it’s no wonder there's some hope for the obvious leveraged candidates. Brent and WTI both trading near par at $47.40/bbl (approx.). So today, the warning was on the door, the flags were waving, LGO Energy (LGO) conducts a placing to raise £1 million raised for Goudron, and Cedros update. Surely not, EMC LGO & Copper Coverage (Fumes) (Diet begins in earnest) seeing the writing on the wall, today I close my short and await the "constant" news flow again. LGO's Nomad and Brokers will obvious assure us no one knew about the placing and it wasn't broadcast far and wide and there was no selling down to fund the placement. Strangely no matter what they say, LGO has yet again performed predictably. Whatever happened to LGO's credit facility? 

Staying with the LGO theme, Alecto Minerals (ALO) placing, congratulations to whomever got this away...judging by past performance. Who'd have thought it with the importance of ALO's Completion of Analysis of Historic Drilling Results at Kerboulé Gold Project, Burkina Faso. Can anyone identify what regulatory news is contained within the 6 January 2015 announcement. The company today announces a placing to maintain working capital (read as sustenance) whilst discussions progress on potential joint ventures. ALO could have saved some RNS costs and updated the market on the Burkina Faso issues both with Government (CNT (no joke) and disturbances stopping operations for the Karma Mine operated by True Gold. Obviously other companies would be wise to update the market accordingly, after all gold is highly portable, such as Avocet (AVM) and Amara Mining (AMA), whom I'm led to believe operate not far away or have licenses near. Centamin Egypt (CEY) really need to bring the cosh out and put ALO out its misery...no premium share based takeover. The shareholders would immediately benefit. 

The final thoughts without reading too much into it the third quarter results of Mothercare (MTC) is why do they have shops? Investors should be considering graphite within the lithium squeeze, no cryptic messages just common-sense. Its always pleasing when investors re-read announcements and come back to reality, ZIOC (ZIOC EMC 30th September 2015 with ZOIC typo). (Disc: no positions short now.) Sirius Minerals (SXX) disappoints today with an update harbour facilities application. Perhaps the company can consider the difference between approvals and applications. This decisions is surprising seeing as there is the potential within the process to modify the application. Impatience will punish...

Atb Fraser.