Friday 23 May 2014

Morning Mumble (Very brief): In light of the "recommended" offer for MOG Mediterranean Oil & Gas plc by Rockhopper Exploration plc. & Blur Group (I was right)

Am I missing the obvious? As a holder and long on MOG, I should be ecstatic when quite frankly the recommendation is a disappointing factor in the value potential of MOG. The justifications of the alleged benefit and contingency for success in Malta is a a let down to holders whom bought into the value.

A cheap way to get its hands on some decent acreage. If the board think the best value including an all in of around $1.2 a barrel, then I advise parties to write  down the names and make sure they include the under performing recommendations. With cash around £8m plus perhaps some element from LOG for the defamatory comments, the price per barrel drops to a paltry $0.85 there's a zero there folks...I'll remind parties of MOG's own investor presentation. 


My view, which is no doubt wrong to the market is, if one wanted Falklands exposure I'd have kept the stock when it was high instead of selling! I dislike all elements of the Falklands its high cost and for me, one to avoid/short regularly. My last thought on MOG goes to the regulator whom perhaps needs to look at the trades late into the day on MOG!

Finally, to what I was commenting on last night! Albeit I missed out on a further 20+ points that's immaterial to what my trading gut was saying. Blur Group Proposed Placing and Open Offer. What a surprise, this sets the trend for a number of stocks, more importantly disenfranchisement will become wide so I will look to short further post the placing news. 

Atb Fraser

1 comment:

  1. Fraser- Hi- Just back in from the cricket ground and catching up. The RKH/MOG deal looks like a steal for RKH, no idea why MOG board have recommended at that price so it looks like RKH have found some work to do whilst waiting for the 2015 drills via FOGL and partners and then Premier Oil may have to stop kicking the Sea Lion can down the road... not holding either but I would be hacked off if I was long on MOG as well. Not much choice in the matter but the look of it unfortunately.

    Re OXS- so Evil Knievil joins the shareholder list- hope he has patience as we know full well that these cases never meet deadlines and then the Uzbeks will need persuading to pay up too. I would be really surprised if they get any cash before this
    time next year.

    http://www.shareprophets.advfn.com/views/5637/exclusive-evil-knievil-piles-into-oxus-gold-reckons-an-arbitration-win-soon

    Cheers. The Leggie

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