Well the Chinese and Asian buyers have been throwing caution
to the wind and reducing their positions selling significantly into a headwind
that broke the back of Iron Ore Crucial support level of $100.50 (Often missed).
Overnight it managed to hold its head above the $98.40 but by nail room only.
With $87/t the next bottom if support is not found, one could expect a few kicks
in the proverbial for the higher cost producers. One will look to Friday's
close to see the 'true' direction but suffice to say, those Chinese traders
will be 'toast' at anything below $94.50, will the Chinese Government step in?
I suspect so, with leverage running at silly levels.
With other commodities, Copper, Nickel (the highest p+ve% mover) and zinc all on the move positive one expects some profit taking again
on Nickel as it nears the magic $9lb/cire $20K/t. The doom-mongers will be
enjoying the predictable element and the impact across the miners more aligned
to Iron Ore, Rio and Vale are likely to be punished the most for obvious
reasons. For the muppet selection you can't get better timing of shorting Iron
Ore miners/commodities than now, unless you're two well-known trading houses
with an inability to smell the stark reality of common-sense. One can only
wonder why a Co's are long Iron Ore at $111, short nickel $7.30/lb...no one
needs hindsight for common-sense, so expect some significant coverage (volatility).
For those able to think on a Monday with such glorious
sunshine, with the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics (Digital Look Link) reporting eight
of the country's cities seeing a monthly decline in the average commercial house
price, compared to the four which saw a fall in March. Does these mean a need for stimulus
or realistic returns and consolidation. Main Chinese Bureau Site for those wanting an in-depth read...
Vale being the historic version of reactive in my view, its no surprise they are now closing their Thermal & Coking Coal operations in New South Wales: Vale to shut money-losing Integra coal mine in Australia (Reuters). One wonders if the Asian Consortium will grasp the opportunity to take the asset of their hands whilst its on care and maintenance, or better still cut their losses and await someone more foolhardy?
Atb Fraser
Fraser- Hi- a good FTML today with plenty of banter- not a massive amount of news today so its nice to have a break from the real world for FTML when I can.
ReplyDeleteRe China- Overnight reports linked to the house price slowdown have stated that the PBoC has "urged" local banks to ease their lending standards, which seems pretty desperate to me but the word ordered could have been used instead of urged if the past is a guide so I wouldn't bet too much on lower figures over the next few months here.
Re OXS- so the Paris hearing is out of the way now and so we are just waiting for the decision, the award (if positive) and costs awards. Im fully positioned here now, but the share price looks too low for this stage, albeit its a binary play. The other factor is compliance with any award, which as we are aware re RUR and others isn't clear cut and could take years for them to settle so perhaps Im not factoring them sufficiently into my numbers here. Im playing this via part of my SIPP and part of an old ISA, so it will come back tax free if its a win. I better put back the order for my superyacht a bit :-)) Your thoughts here would be welcome but Im firmly entrenched now and a loss will only hurt my pride, not my future plans in reality.
Cheers. The Leggie
Fraser- Hope you are having a good week- plenty of misvalued stocks out there at present for me to find positives and you to find negatives no doubt :-))
ReplyDeleteDid you get in on the HAWK play earlier- Tom W found that Running Foxes law suit and the grenade went off, allowing me to add at 9.3p as I know that RF and Nighthawk have had "issues" in the past and how litigious the yanks get. The robust RNS didn't come out until 3.30pmish but I guess a lot of stop losses would have been triggered today.
Re TRP- just a small play for me now, given the fairly binary nature but the volatility seems to be due to Rift derisking - they got 550m shares from the assets they injected into TRP v recently but only 50% is on a 12 month lock in so the recent holdings stmt of 374m may be nearer to 275m now or soon. It would be too much of a risk to go into dark with that level of shares if you didn't have to, surely.
Re SXX- 3 weeks of rises on the trot and a 4th on the way. I wont add any more until the July resubmission and may even trade some if they go above 15p between now and then. Are you looking at it in a similar fashion now?
Cheers. The Leggie