Morning Mumble: Glencore, no hindsight 20/20 required here. Hargreaves Services (HSP), APR Energy (No Change in View), Lonmin, could it? Unlikely but its nearly ripe! + Zoopla's support line...plus beware amateur trader shirts!

Good Morning,

Another one of those days, with cheerleading type newsflow, selective reading is advised. Whether it's Chinese missiles, American interest rate policy or the oil price bouncing along with the traders, the market is acting like a flight of starlings. Is anyone capable of forming their own opinions? It would appear the murmation need to consider their own position, with limited open contrarian views in the short-to-mid-term, the market will lack decent direction

Glencore (GLEN) have elected to show their confidence with Director/Management share purchases. Some could have been perhaps timed better. Steve Kalmin aka Scotty (EMC) 1,000,000 Shares at a price of 172.88p (GBP 1.729) per Share, John Mack, 50,000 Shares at a price of 162.85p (GBP 1.629) per Share and yesterday, Paul Grauer, 118,000 Shares at a price of 134.5p (GBP1.345) per Share. 

Rather immaterial when the selling of William Macaulay (EMC) is considered, to quote, "What this signifies in respect of GLEN's key market and likely performance is another matter (EMC).” Bryce went with Glencore sinks on equity issuance fears (FT).

Then again, Glencore can merely pull their levers for this and that to trade their way out? I doubt it's that simple. Quite how the hedging works is a mystery, but the lack of FX exposure suggests that to unwind the RMI (Readily Marketable Inventory) it will require significant capital/work.

If there's any accountants reading, it would be a pleasure to be educated on the carrying costs of said hedging, as it would appear GLEN have made significant gains. These now perhaps need reversing? Some very good analysis here in the comments section (FTML) (Bias). 

Positively, Hargreaves Services (HSP), after the director change today. Having been short on this company because of the woes of "coal. Now having had chance to review HSP (briefly) there appears to be an opportunity, one suspects for some form of leveraged buyout. With limited (£1M) net debt on the balance sheet, and set to be cash generative (even) at these prices, one has a suspicions the wheels will be in motion. 

There's been a number of questions regarding APR Energy. Simply I've not had time to cover all the items mentioned in their preliminary results for the year ended 31 May 2015. Are GE Capital the sellers? With net debt of near $604M, there's a need for cash. This is after allowing for some form of "heck you owe us a lot banking syndicate, here have some more." No change in view...(EMC). 

With Lonmin laying off a few more chaps, one wonders if the entity is “nearly” clean enough for a take-out. If ever the time was ripe, it's nearing that point, event risk warning on those shorts. Likewise, I’m informed that technically speaking, Zoopla has to break 230 pence.

The finally thought goes to an acknowledgement, which was gratefully received after a minor differing of views on all FTSE miners near 3+ years ago. The "beware amateur trader" shirt, no doubt at vast expense, will be modelled when I'm lacking sobriety. However, the pictures of a certain “professional” wearing similar is noted!

Remember, today is a Holiday in China, so can expect some sideways / positive trading of a fashion.

Atb Fraser