Good Morning,
Many thanks for the enquiries why there has not been
comments but it’s simply put, work is very busy with some work for those
entities looking to profit from shorters, the white knights. Fear not, there
were no cuts or bruises and thank you to certain parties for those mad enough
to allow the Ninja known as my daughter tearing up your office whilst in
meetings.
LGO Energy (LGO) had the appointment of a joint
broker on 5 January 2015, EMC:
LGO Energy. Although not much of a short its always nice to pick on these
eventualities that are more certain such as certain entities companies contradict contradicting their
"cashflow" forecasts and debt arrangements and whilst raising and raising,
and...You get the idea. Today, there is the issue of equity and oil
swap arrangement with BNP. Today's news makes it wise to close the
shorts on LGO.
The arrangement may be positive for LGO longer term,
but if one looks back at the placing etc. There are material risks investors
should not ignore including the "revenue per barrel of the Spanish
assets all those years ago". LGO is in the same basket as Victoria Oil
& Gas (VOG), where the management decisions come with certain risks that
can have a material impact on the value of a holding. Although the SP held up
better than envisaged with every man and his dog working out the obvious. (Link
relevant twice today EMC: JRG + LGO Placing (history repeating itself))
Had Anglo Pacific (APF) been proactive with
their investor relations they would have announced to the market that Largo
Resources (TSX: LGO) received
a non-binding indicative term sheet from its consortium of lenders (Largo
link). TSX: LGO are hoping, subject to committee approval, to defer its
debt amortization schedule and extend the maturities for its construction debt
facility and its export credit facilities for its Maracás Menchen Mine.
TSX: LGO give an update on the progress and the asset for
investors that like layman's terms. The market should now be accustomed to the
poor updates as shown with Isua Project in Greenland (EMC:
Isua). APF will obviously be busy hunting a transformational top
quality coal royalty to be bothered about something they paid $22M only 8/9
months ago. So for those holders unable to gain anything useful you read it
above in the Largo link.
BLT (BHP Billiton), with Andrew
Mackenzie (CEO) opening his 2015 Interim Results
Presentation by raising his arms to demonstrate how
comfortable he is with the results. The market is going to like the interims.
South32 (Known here as short32) demerger remains on track to be completed
in the first half of the 2015 calendar year.
Net debt was higher than EMC considered by circa $500M but
negligible in the grand scheme of things. Post a few items needed more urgently
its maybe wise to revisit BLT. Returns are lousy in % terms of capital applied,
but the market ignores such things, so like Rio, over to the bulls to assist
the sensible in making decent intraday gains. Copper (circa 11 mins in) within
BLT suffered the same woes as most of the industry with energy inc. water and
grades being lower. Despite lower prices BLT have done better than expect. Iron
Ore update (circa 13 mins in)...too much to cover in such a short time.
Just Retirement Group (JRG) being a trade EMC: JRG + LGO Placing (history repeating itself). Comedy on the OPEC Emergency beliefs at these prices,
investors and analysts should not read too much into "news" that contradict what statements have been made in the past.
Atb Fraser
Fraser- Hi- nice to see you are back on your feet again and the gin, gin and more gin cold remedy you have patented works... making you a target for Shire no doubt given their acquisitive nature.
ReplyDeleteRe BLT- perhaps a relief rally there, the number were pretty much as expected and the divi rise a statement of future confidence that the mkt has bought so far today. Their key markets haven't been well chosen- oil, copper, coal and petroleum have all seen major price cuts- so much for adding petrol as a diversifier guys. In the meantime profits rose well in the South 32 units... hmmm. Everyone seems to have been hit with lower copper grades... how does that work? ROCE 11%... hmmm. A bit of a curates egg at BLT.
Re BLVN- so they get their $170m in cash in 15 days and mkt cap is around $160m. So the rest (inc the retained Etinde stake) and the $80m in pre paid capex is worth minus $10m, which reflects the assumption that the company is going to blow the cash in hand on hookers and white powder (or more drilling/exploration). Perhaps a strategic purchase of a producing asset in the vicinity would be the best plan here. £1 a share for VOG would be a knockout bid for me- Any thoughts? Then again I can think of a few other cheap assets so BLVN need to spend that money wisely, keeping some back for their own development costs going forward.
Re CLP- Clear Leisure have been a car wreck several times- the old Brainspark has stumbled from disaster to calamity for years, with the poorest of mgmt. to rake off their cut, driving forward in the same style as the Costa Concordia skipper. They must have won a Bad Aim award most years. Having been on the junk watchlist forever, I bought for the first time last week when Westhouse presented a winding up order... that put the cat amongst the pigeons. That prompted a search of the assets cupboard and they found something worth E500k a few days ago and now update re their main asset, Mediapolis, which has raised a few quid too and has 5 suitors. Now CLP have a history of promising the Moon and delivering Skegness, so it was rude to not sell a few earlier but given the numbers here indicate a net 3.5p, I will hold the rest for the summer and see what they deliver.... I will probably add more if they settle below 1p again, as my calcs cant be that far out.
Cheers. The Leggie
Fraser- Not sure if you saw this but I guess they have been in play for some time...
ReplyDeletehttp://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/02/25/uk-gulf-keys-petr-m-a-idUKKBN0LT04220150225
Cheers. The Leggie