Morning Mumble: Belatedly...Oil the tank is on et al

Good Morning Carnage. Oil was delightfully proving very fulfilling with the bets being on a significant reduction in supply (how wrong). Its ironic that the Ukraine may actually be intensified as a result of today's OPEC vote on production. Expect a more urgent call back to Austria in the next few months if the demand doesn't support an appreciating Oil price (February). 

The amount of futures/options (the bets) on the reduction caused categorical carnage on the market as they called it wrong and ran to the door. To quote myself from this mornings phone in about the OPEC which clearly has impacted oilers across the board...short the cash starved and those with outstanding assets may have some hope...risks are for $58/b (serious risks). The Indonesian President will be sighing with relief, what a perfect era to wean off a fuel subsidy.

Items worthy of a note from yesterday and bolting on nicely to the Rio seminar update today was the Rio Tinto Diavik Diamond Mine - development of the A21 pipe. For those followers of age, you'll note the A21 was the sweet spot that was the original target a few years back, but the plan changed. The costings are postive for a mine life extension of circa 5+ years, and the quality of the stones is surprisingly good. A good move for Rio keeping those returns coming in. Long live the independent Chinese Rio, Glencore have enough problems.

Don't get too excited about the Swiss vote with the expected outcome save for some random events or last minute changes is swinging favour of a no vote (48% 38% in favour). With the lack of Comex trades rolling over its amusing to see the market devoid of any opinion (not here). The gold price is the opinion (my view), so the market is saying its a no vote for 1500t's of gold over 5 years. Expect analysts to sit on the fence with limited suggestion on direction. Gold has some serious risks as a result of oil...

Something I missed a few days ago was Gem Diamonds (GEMD) unearths rare 40.23-carat ruby in Mozambique. No RNS has been forthcoming on this which is surprising as estimates range between $250K a carat and $1m cut (please note cut). Point out by Roger Bade this yesterday morning...

Monitise (MONI) holders will take some relief that they've got more cash to develop things with...the cash burn in total in MONI is staggering and far from proportionate to the returns. Monitise Enters New Strategic Partnerships with Santander, Telefónica and MasterCard to accelerate the growth in Mobile Money ecosystem. Small change to those involved, so holders would be wise to view today's news as a great opportunity to take some profit save some loss. 

Its not the intention to bore you with the potential of enabling financial transaction for the 'unbanked', but parties would be wise to read around the African opportunities (interoperability). Mobile money will make a market, it will create a market place, although it's more a case of when you'd be wisest to invest.

With the discounters in full swing it was with no surprise that Poundland's (PLND) Interim Results for the 26 weeks ended 28 September 2014 were well received. Being equity long on PLND, I took the monies off the table this morning at just above what was paid. Either I have got something wrong in terms of PLND's potential or the market is simply not valuing it the same way. Having held near 5 months, there are better places for the money currently than the potential of a steady walk to £4. 

For those with greater expectations of Gin, Distil PLC Blackwoods Gin approved by TTB. The disappointment being this was not well in advance of the Christmas market where sales could have been motivated and promotional activity more memorable (+improved cash flow). Not the wisest time to be long however these companies should be supported, not because you want to make a profit but a gift to gin drinkers. 

The company in my view needs circa £1.5M for expansion so if a certain reader hasn't found a home for just some of his Serco profits to get on the blower, there's worst places you could put it! Alternatively, pop out and support a British Company by buying a British drink (its actually from the Shetlands but before people black list me for train-spotting in the gin world!). If I see cases of cheaper alternatives arriving next week, one shall be sending the thank you with disappointment cards, Hendricks is of course acceptable. 

Couple of items to share Duncan Fox...

SABMiller: Sell

The Company has announced the creation of the largest Coca Cola bottler in Southern and Eastern Africa this morning. SAB, Gutsche Family Investments and Coca Cola Sabco will merge their businesses in two phases which will eventually leave SAB with 57% of the voting rights, GFI 31.7% and Coca Cola with 11.3%. The combined business will bottle 40% of all Coke's volumes in Africa and will serve 12 high growth countries. Clearly as the business develops it should benefit from the scale and growth within these 12 markets, but eventually add further geographies to develop the business (we assume). Clearly soft drinks was an important contributor to the Group's growth, it provided 7% growth at the Interim stage whilst Beer volumes really struggled, so the rationale for the deal is excellent. However, with the shares trading on a 2015 consensus PE of 22.3x, the shares are not cheap. In fact we believe that there is some take-out premium within this rating, ABI are certainly getting closer to being able to do a deal. Adding more ties with Coca Cola though do make a tie-up with ABI more troublesome as ABI bottles for PepsiCo, not impossible to unpick, but just adds further headaches for the ABI management. SAB is a great Company, well run but just too expensive given the current growth rates that they are achieving, so we will continue with the Sell recommendation.

Britvic: Sell

The Full Year results have been delivered today, there shouldn't be any surprises as nearly all of these numbers have already been released. However, it is clear that the numbers have been good due to an excellent performance by the UK Carbonate business with volume growth of 4.4% and pricing growth of 1.3%, other than that only the International business drove any value. All the other businesses are dull. What we need to remember about the year is that in eth UK Coca Cola reduced the size of the large bottles from 2ltr to 1.75ltr, effectively an 8.75% price increase. Whilst this was being implemented the promotional campaigns, marketing etc were poor/non-existent, so Pepsi had an easy time. To be fair to Britvic they executed their strategy very well for Pepsi to deliver the growth above, but we suspect life will not be as easy again. There are two issues that fly out at you from the outlook statement. Firstly Britvic are now ready to push Fruit Shoot in multi-packs in the US from the middle of 2015. This will create noise where analysts will speculate on how much this will mean for the Group. However, given that the International business represents just 5.6% of the overall business, we believe that the market is pinning too much hope on a small part of the overall business. The driver here has to be the UK Stills and Carbonates business, these businesses represent 67% of the total so if they stagnate or fall, there will be no/limited growth in the top line. Cost savings will continue to come through for another couple of years, but you shouldn't put a high PE on cost saving driven growth. With Britvic trading on a consensus PE of 14.8x (we are lower, so 15.1x), then you need some sales growth. We are not convinced that this will come as the business has concentrated on pricing recently, and we can see from many a company that getting pricing in the UK, Ireland and France is not easy at the moment. We keep our Sell recommendation.

Tesco: Buy

It is being reported in today's FT that a UK law firm (FT article) is trying to sign up investors to sue for their losses in the shares. Interesting, we assume the 'buyer beware' principal, and if we believe Tesco and the independent auditors that were brought in they didn't do anything illegal, but pushed that law to the limits. If anyone read the accounts they could have spotted that life didn't seem right, the cash flow wasn't following the supposed top line growth, and the explanation that this was just higher investment always seemed odd as you would assume that this should make a return. However, more time for the management to sort out stuff rather than drive the business which is bad news, but we are not sure how the lawyers will shape their argument.

Still working on SVT (Severn Trent) so hopefully over the weekend. With rumours of a gold placing being explored for a very small gold stock they should think themselves lucky there's no stock to borrow.

Re: the Australian Atlas Iron supporters club, if they can moderate their profanity I give an assurance I shall publish, until then...best of success "long & strong."

Atb Fraser

Morning Mumble: CHA Cha cha (No known links to Cuba) & congratulation to non-holders of CHA & Kefi.

Good Morning, what a wet one indeed but positive that we're getting normal weather cycles for those insuring and those wanting to fix their electricity.

CHA (Concha plc (CHA)) was raised recently but meant I was unable to comment, for transparency, there are no known contacts with the company or their associates. The company simply has limited cash and is over-valued on any metrics no matter which way you turn their P&L's. 

It did not take rocket science to work out it was a short, save for the chap that became aware of this and thought abusing yours truly would save the CHA share price. Most get fixated at the warrant price when placings are completed, it's a carrot sweetener in the event the company's share price appreciates if it does not then the placees have risked no further money. 

For those that don't know, "the company" is focused on the mobile, internet, sports, social media, digital and technology space (sound familiar?). With the recent placing its appalling the market was so slow to react to the obvious (the tank). CHA has all the warning signs over it, a quick perusal of recent holders shows how illiquid it is, coupled with CHA's statement about their share price movement, only adds to the interest. 

The caveats come waving at you with this stock, there most recent debacle being the loan to Churchill Media Limited (CML). You'll note in the RNS it states "secured against the assets of CML which comprise investments in a number of TMT and media businesses." It transpires that CHA are now pursuing their former legal advisers for the losses suffered as a result of the failure to register a valid security interest in the assets of Moshen aka CML. One would be wise not to ignore the Pixcom Ventures Limited loan either...There's likely to be some professional indemnity payout on the CML but this still does not validate a share pric above 1 pence. If you're holding long there, good luck!

For those that read Morning Mumble: Afren (AFR) & Hargreaves Lansdown (HL.) & Tesco's to name but a few... and still do not hold Anglesey Mining (AYM), you can give yourself another congratulatory pat on the back. What a dog Labrador Iron Mine was, if you're holding you can get all excited about an underground iron ore mine in Sweden. 

Grangesberg Iron (Sweden) couldn't even make a profit in the late 80's at prices of...(20-30$/t) but AYM feels the need to explore these operations, despite fuel being X times higher, in fact all costs being near 4 times higher. But don't take my word for it, today AYM delightfully update the market with a half yearly warning. The warning is my view...one will await the £14m circa impairment. So AYM now jump off the Ferrous Metals ban wagon and pin their hopes on ZINC (non-ferrous metals) in North Wales. Albeit there's "only" 40M shares available to borrow today...

Limited time to cover yesterday's half yearly by Severn Trent (SVT), will come back to this without a doubt though. Their suppliers were under significant pressure which bodes well for the bottom line for SVT. If anyone knows anyone at Mar City Homes, Shore Capital or Wh Ireland, it would be wise if they proofread their RNS's, unless of course they're a Scottish firm Hous Building! 

Back later...Oil having woes and gold trading (plus Kefi)

Atb Fraser

Belated Morning Mumble: Short sellers unmasked and Carnage in Iron Ore (perhaps later in the week) and lamp posting shorts.

The last week and a bit has been exceedingly busy with the benefit of 5+ hour lunches it was hardly a chore; finally delivering the Blue Nun bet (2 months late). We saw the publicising of Roble being unmasked (along with Fest, Blau and Fresco). You would be hard pushed to argue it did not create interest for the FT and as such served their purpose of news. Should the ultimate beneficiaries of any trade be named, in fact down to the clients? No, it wasn't illegal nor was there any compelling question over their actions or position.

There are plenty of funds out there doing the same but long, yet for 'some strange reason' these have not been exposed despite it being fairly easy to identify who is who; but not for all. There's without a doubt going to be an amendment to the regulations to discontinue this practice, for the shorters. We'll ignore those sovereign wealth funds with discreet arm's length companies producing high profits without a label but adhering to the legal requirements fully. For those privy to such information they would be wise not to bite the hand that feeds them (assuming everything is above board).

Does it really matter which fund is at the end of the position as long as the position is disclosed? Personally no its not a secretive trade. What concerns me is a) where and why that person thought it was beneficial to disclose information and why people feel the need to know the beneficiaries or does one have to list the all the holders in those trades as well (Ultimate beneficiaries)? The article puts no responsibility on the regulators to make companies more transparent about their financial position, revenue recognition, disclosures and more importantly to adhere to the principles of the regulated news (RNS).

QPP, like  various other companies had a lot of steam built in. Rule One is never invest in a company you don't understand the finances of, the product perhaps is a different story, but never where the financials are so complex it gives you a headache. The article may  have caused a fund to exit (cover) its position earlier than planned.

Tom Winnifrith (TW) has done and is doing a marvellous job and without a doubt enjoys the chase or kill. For TW's business model is rightly what pays the bills and certainly something people without more ego than IQ should pay attention to, at least to TW's modus operandi. Those people should include fund managers, private investors, shorters and long only fraternity. Its comedy to hear managers justification for such losses in companies including diverse portfolio etc...ultimately diversity will save a portfolio but never use it as an accuse for a poor or bad investment

Tiger Group operate an well-balanced model that funds should be encouraged to consider...perhaps in time this will change the face of investing. So many managers out there do not even comprehend the issues or impact of short positions. What next, a story on who lent the stock to Tiger? We can hope not...We'll leave it there on that, but suffice to say the unmasking was not a positive day for the markets or just maybe a certain person involved in the deal. Best of success in that...on the flip side, journalism rewarded their readers. (Off the soap box).

With the AIM M&A season now in full swing we've seen some rather purposeful announcements today (Sound Oil: SOU), that hopefully I'll return to, the holders should just might be rewarded. Perhaps even hold out for a small premium at Antrim, but allegedly the votes for the majority are in the bag. 

There's rumours of a certain company reducing production significantly on Iron Ore that could remove a vast amount of supply...watch the news for a potential spike, hopefully I'll be able to cover it later in the week.

So we have Serco Group (SRG) and now we have a tiddler,Oilex Ltd (OEX) lamp posting the shorts. Its a bizarre state of events when companies forewarn to the detriment of their shareholders and stability of the business. Pricing in Serco has had various darts thrown at the SP, the final one being 65 pence which doesn't seem unreasonable in light of trading conditions etc...there's a real risk of such a discounted rights issue to assure any underwriters of reduced risk it questions why anyone is holding. Cash off, risk off...need one say more about it.

It was a pleasure to be pointed in the direction of Fuller Smith & Turner (FSTA) by Dave (congrats), obvious but it did clearly spook shorters why it hadn't moved like Fullers' competitors. One won't cover the Beaufort upgrade (buy) today (more reiteration), but will state FSTA are obviously not impacted (yet) by the potential issues, but it rather caps any progress for the company. Personally it would be wise to consider the risks unknown if one holds long and await a recalibration of the industry, pending on your longer-term views. 

Positive developments on BT.A today, with the quad play coming truly in to play. Perhaps analysts/brokers would be wise to read the small print of the licenses BT acquired and see the potential of a tie up. An offering that will compete on a British level above what anyone is pitching currently. The if is affordability and pricing...

Atb Fraser

Morning Mumble: Majestic Wine's, the need for more than Christmas Cheer &...AGO (ASX: Atlas Iron) Any old iron for a tank. Free of Tie coming to an end...which leads nicely on to the MRW hospitality.

Good Morning, it's been a hectic few days I've been doing some paid work in the afternoon which means there's limited time for things in morning.

Those that follow Majestic Wine's (MJW) and read or commentate on FTML will know my views on Majestic Wine's. They had their interim results out on Monday which were as predicted down on profits, sales were up more than thought. Majestic's was in a very good position in terms of pricing perception, it sells wine in 210 stores. Quite why it's not selling more online or advertising its seasonal wine tastings to the wider public is surprising, but then perhaps some common-sense customer relationship management (its apparently new for MJW) may help.

MJW are expanding their focus especially on business sales with average spending per customer up to £130 from £127, which I suspect is in part to the price increases. If you factor in the average bottle price purchases of £8.02 (2013: £7.71) then MJW's average spend is falling behind the price, as it should have maintained an average order of £131. Picky perhaps, but if MJW do no evolve its a sitting duck with UK sales currently about perception...even for the wealthy folk out there!

The profits are down because of company investment but more importantly because of the UK Supermarket competition. They may escape the brunt of it, but the impact is starting to be shown as they have not added one active customer since their final results in March and EPS has fallen 10%. 

MJW acknowledge in the Chairman's Statement, "The retail environment in which we operate remains highly competitive, however, Majestic traded in line with our expectations and we increased market share over the period by 0.1% to 4.3%. Total Group revenues at £133.8m were up £3.6m on the previous first half and UK like for like sales grew 2.8%."

Although MJW is now looking at Multichannel sales and Customer Relationship Management (about time), the service offered won't be compelling for the masses and those being pinched (financially) or tempted by the offerings elsewhere will cull the individual purchases items in favour of their shopping basket as the competition hots up. 

There's no reason to get excited through 2015 as MJW openly admits "The 2015 financial year is one of investing to put in place the building blocks to deliver future growth and shareholder value and we are progressing to plan." So for those expecting no less, until there are visible changes in advertising (currently lacking in my view) and the odd dinner party host evidencing more buys from Majestic I see no reason to change my view save for the Christmas run. Admittedly, there's likely to be a pre-Christmas appreciation in the stock (hope) so the short positions will be set aside until Christmas eve (yes a brave one). 

Its surprising the amount of attention my shorts in Atlas Iron (ASX Listed: AGO) have been getting. The company has been making progress with cost cutting and expanding more in to Indian (Hopefully) but with the market pricing in iron ore at $50/t there's simply no room for error for AGO. Why people get angry about shorters is almost worthy of a book, perhaps I should start getting angry when people hold long stock...if I had time or the childish inclination I'd maybe consider it after a few drinks. With that in mind, the price takers (the producers) are going to be punished, iron ore fell to $70/t and bounces. 

So to keep those ASX holders happy, it was rude not to continue on the theme with Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. (ASX: FMG), where holders were warned of the support lines, $4, $3.50 and $3, next stop $2.25. Quite why one is holding now is a question they can have with themselves or their broker. Its not for me to give out financial advice...What was surprising was one of the most dire performers on ASX, BCI Iron (ASX: BCI) actually held up better than I expected. 

It was in a meeting in Bristol awhile back I was asked which iron ore companies to short, my response was laughed at when I said all of them...amazing how things turn out. Rio is being supported by hope more than fundamentals and BLT is giving the indicator of the direction of Rio, only time required. The commentary on FTML by Roddy about being a giver or take in price terms has been validated in an usually short space of time, Iron Ore Extends Bear Market as Miner Says ‘We Are Price Takers’ By Jasmine Ng and Phoebe Sedgman.

One hopes the Australian contingent have sobered up enough to read the Cairn (CNE) news on the deep karstified and fractured Lower Cretaceous shelf carbonates. Perhaps they have drunken/blind faith on the upper clastic target, which is set to be significantly better than the market has priced in. CNE have been punished, with a headwind of oil sector pricing issues not helping, it's surprising even allow for the Indian taxation issues, why this company is still independent. Perhaps VED (Vedanta), whom the market clearly ignore the level of debt and attributable equity can raise a few quid more in debt to take the rest of CNE.

Gold, yet another predictable short off a peek with some significant coverage by speculators both long and short; there's some chunky trades out there at the moment which is pulling the market (spooking). With wider speculation limited expect the theme to continue until the volumes return in consistent numbers. Without wanting to spoon-feed, traders would be wise to follow the move in base metals, very predictable given the climate, the lack of speculation and demand driven pricing. With oil having a significant impact on mining costs and the margin between production and sales narrowing as a result expect further declines in copper (circa 5-10%), aluminium (5%), lead and zinc (same) . Key to Nickel is the Chinese supply which may offer more support with supplies indicating a restock in China circa April 2015 and the Indonesia / Philippines debacle. 

By amazing coincidence after yesterday's ETI final results where the debt mountain is simply untenable (my view), yet more bad news for Enterprise Inn's (ETI). The debt is somewhat reliant on a tied lease model which has been scuppered and Enterprise Inn's, Response to House of Commons Amendment. In response, Simon Townsend, Chief Executive Officer, said, "This amendment, which was not supported by the Government, threatens to have serious unintended consequences for publicans and the industry at large." Government defeated in pubs vote. Short the landlord, long the tenant! Over the Punch Tavern's (PUB) for a knock out statement...(I know!!! Dire!).

For those outside of the UK, see below (Article copy and paste).

The government has been defeated in a Commons vote on the control that parent companies can exercise over pubs.

MPs voted 284 to 259 in favour of an amendment allowing landlords an independent rent review and to buy their beer on the open market.

So-called "tied pubs" are required to buy supplies - often at high prices - from the companies that own the pubs.

Campaigners said the "historic" vote would help "secure the future of the Great British pub".

The amendment to the Small Business, Enterprise and Employment Bill was put forward by Lib Dem Greg Mulholland.

Mr Mulholland, the chairman of the all-party Parliamentary Save the Pub group, described the "tie" arrangement made between a pub and its owner as an "archaic" and "extraordinary" system.

Market rentIt is thought to be the government's first defeat on one of its own bills since the 2010 election.

Ministers want to create a pubs code, aimed at helping pub landlords struggling to pay rent or beer costs.

It includes the right to request a rent review after five years.

But campaigners wanted the automatic right for pub landlords to exchange their tenancy for an independently-assessed market rent without any "tie".

In an attempt to head off a defeat on the amendment, which was signed by MPs of all parties, Business Minister Jo Swinson said the government would introduce new measures to allow pub landlords to apply for "market rent" rates from after two years, if a review found other measures in the bill had not helped them sufficiently.

'Gradual process'

But Mr Mulholland said this would be "business as usual".

He told MPs the new clause, which was backed by Labour, had been drafted by lawyers and publicans and would come in gradually, reducing the impact on the industry.

He added: "This is a reasonable gradual process that will simply bring back market forces into a sector that frankly has become grotesquely anti-competitive."

Tim Page, chief executive of the Campaign for Real Ale, said he was "delighted" that "after 10 years of our campaigning, MPs have today voted to introduce a market rent only option for licensees tied to the large pub companies - a move that will secure the future of the Great British pub".

The Federation of Small Businesses said it was "a historic day for tied publicans who look forward to a more open and competitive marketplace".

But the British Beer and Pub Association said the outcome was "hugely damaging".

Chief executive Brigid Simmonds said: "This change effectively breaks the 'beer tie', which has served Britain's unique pub industry well for nearly 400 years."

Something from Duncan Fox this morning got me thinking, Tesco: Buy

Late yesterday the Company announced that Tesco Personal Finance was offering a £2bn Euro note programme. We are not sure why the business has done a note via this route, but there has been some market speculation that Tesco may float off the Bank as a way of raising some capital to reduce the debt. 

For those analysts off on the early morning KGX to Bradford for the Morrison's (MRW) Analyst and Investor Presentation and Site Visit one would be wise to not overdo the hot toddy or go away misguided by any Christmas feel good factor!  There will be a MacDonald's Gold Star award for any analyst  attending work tomorrow before midday! 

Atb Fraser

Morning Mumble: Like oil the iron ore buyers are "limited" & nickel copper speculators are totally absent. Is condor set to sore (yes I know)?

Good Morning , very busy with an impromptu invite for breakfast with an infamous but discreet (yeah right) shorter yesterday which put back a number of items. It was a little out the blue, but a pleasure all the same to discuss the positives/negatives. Perhaps just a little higher up the food chain. Had one known they were readers it would have been wise to delay some items for personal benefit or charge a fee. 

The iron ore carnage is now having a major impact on the also-rans such as AMI. They were allegedly close to financing a concentrator deal now it looks like the debt-holders will be taking control of AMI then merging (my view) or viewed as a major haircut for shareholders.

Without a doubt there's better coverage regarding the oil than here, its sadly not my bag in terms of the companies, but the price is. Oil's woes are about to get worse, not only are companies now risking security of supply over the price but more so a number of companies are starting Christmas early. Its rumoured Vitol have seen a deterioration in demand and as such its fair to assume Glencore (GLEN) will have the same issues. 

GLEN have other issues that will be supported by their Copper and Nickel and production increasing in Chad. This will almost certainly offset the deterioration in prices to a large degree. With earnings on the decline, once the 'strategic' purchases are out the way, GLEN may see their biggest markets in decline  (save for a stimulus). The pressure for GLEN to do a deal is likely to have increased, RIO is looking more and more unlikely. 

It was with disappointment that when reading Gem Diamonds (GEMD) Interim Management Statement for Q3 2014, the prices have admittedly been a little under pressure (more recently) but the concern comes in many forms. Parties should have taken profits +£2 back in August, the trade was sell/short Petra Diamonds (PDL) back in July and long GEMD. The lack of clarity in dividend is still anyone's guess with the cautious statements about the industry, GEMD appear better set to ride the issues out so a hold for those with a longer term view than the end of a Friday. 

Fortescue Metals Group (ASX: FMG) is saved for now, heading back a smidge of $3 a share, with some sighs. FMG and Atlas Iron (AGO) are becoming the Eastenders version of Iron Ore. Quite why International Mining & Infrastructure Corporation plc (AIM: IMIC) is trading above the cash value is another question people can perhaps answer!

It was evidenced today that investors or the market have no idea about returns, Condor Gold La India Project Pre-Feasibility Study and Preliminary Economic Assessment. Perhaps we're being unreasonable to expect a rate of return for shareholders above 20%. To be fair Roger Bade's 25% measure is bloody good. 

Those that bought into the last placing (circa 90 pence & the short) could potentially get out with less of a loss. Financing is key to La India (D'oh) and Condor (CNR) PEA & PFS have just made that harder (my view). For a comparison, one would be wise to save a copy and compare with Amara Mining's by March 2015. 

Save for any upgrade and the requirement for 8,000m to 10,000m of drilling to assess the 300,000 oz gold in open pittable inferred resource Condor isn't a favourite! Both the inferred and artisanal reprocessing is a hopeful, but suffice to say, Condors figures may be positive, but they certainly are not enticing. One needs a good run on gold before the economics of La India stack up...perhaps they can find a J/V with a calculator.

Keep a watchful eye on the price of aluminium over the next few weeks...

Atb Fraser 

Morning Mumble (PM Edition): China investment growth near 13-year low Gabriel Wildau in Beijing

China investment growth near 13-year low Gabriel Wildau in Beijing surely this isn't behind the curve of what Li was discussing and here contradicting those Chinese Bulls. Cue the stimulus...base metals should benefit on the announcement. Will hopefully finish the post I started before a breakfast meeting. 

Atb Fraser

Morning Mumble: Very late, Iron Ore (you were warned), Sainsbury's (Christmas Card list) & the New Standby Help & Assistance Facility Terms (SHAFT)

Good Morning, The ASX had carnage all over it last night, the term correctly used by a number of brokers as well. Iron Ore has now become the short of the year, copper is also one to watch as the trading suggestions a blind ignorance of the global supply and demand (could also be read as manipulation.)

Atlas Iron (ASX: AGO) being absolutely punished as investors rightly price in the survival ratio of this company at $51/t. Its non-entity, they're doing very well against a headwind of total domination by the majors which are determined to over supply at any cost. So Atlas Iron, currently circa 21¢ a share, with most PI's pretty much willing to accept anything for their shares. Quite why parties have held on this long despite the news being so advanced of the drop is beyond me.

Fortescue Metals Group (ASX: FMG) is arguably struggling to hold its support lines at $3 a share (See various articles here Morning Mumble: London's Burning??? Any old iron! & the rules of 3 warnings (Tesco validating my view), all that glimmers certainly isn't gold (at the moment) & Morning Mumble: New Loans (yeah right)..Sky's the limit (boom boom) & the swallow cleared off! & Morning Mumble: Marks & Spencer (MKS) (the relief trade) & precious metals, where is the support!?!?). FMG has two days to make it back above $3 before further carnage to around $2.25 a share...one will have to wait and see. 

The economies of scale for the iron ore majors were in doubt awhile back, with freight costs dropping its highly likely all the savings will be achieved and long live the oversupply, expect some upwards guidance on cost reductions due to oil and shipping rates. Rio may be wise to acquire a few cheap vessels without capacity. The irony being the majors are punishing their own stock prices as well. Rio struggling to hold 3000 on lower volumes (less support) and the GLEN rumour (obvious) providing the technical support. Additionally BHP Billiton (BLT) not holding out much hope either...

This morning's delay was due to two pressing items, "the trade" Sainsbury's which is losing out in the price war by being reactionary marketing and the trade (which went correctly for once ha-ha) was to short on the news. As such SBRY made my Christmas list, I won't comment too much but if there was ever a negative in Interim Results for the 28 weeks to 27 September 2014 - Evolving to win. The perception of the customers is that SBRY has been late to react to competition. The LFL were better than I expected, significantly so in fact but the profit showing the economies of scale are losing their benefits. Expect a dividend cut in due course with what is looking more and more like a rights issue. Over to the Qataris with yet more flights to and from. My view, like Duncan's is sell SBRY.

Due to myself also signing up for alibaba.com for some items, it delayed my morning ritual of coffee, news, Asia, Oz and America (the latter always last), then on to trades, current trades and more coffee. Alibaba has some questionable adverts, is someone looking in to these at all, as rightly commentated by another chap some are a little dubious to say the least. 

We will let the analysts digest the significance of the Chinese American pollution pact which has implications of costs and planned development. Then again is it worth the paper it’s printed on...? Pig Iron and Nickel ironically suffering a supply contraction as a result of "pollution" measures (positives)...all saved from a fall and copper on the bounce for no reason whatsoever.

Now I've had some interesting dialogue about this and it would be interesting to know whether certain parties receive an arrangement fee for these types of deals? Whether these parties are retained to act in the best interest of the shareholders...Obviously, not being a graduate in all things AIM regulated (term to be loosened according to the amount of laxative representatives take) it does pose whether there's a conflict of interest in these types of facilities. You will note the absence of the terms of such a deal, save for clarity on margin etc...

No time for a number of oilers, or the gossip, or the "financing a house RNS" today...however we shall now, like a SEDA (Standby Equity Destruction Agreement), call these deals the Standby Help & Assistance Facility Terms (SHAFT), Angle PLC Further information re Director's share transfer which reads rather differently to the one announced a few weeks ago. ANGLE plc (AIM: AGL), the specialist medtech company, announces that it was notified on 20 October 2014 that Andrew Newland, Chief Executive of ANGLE. 

Atb Fraser

Morning Mumble: Afren (AFR) favourable weather & Taylor Wimpey (TW.) almost a copy & paste job! Anyone for Yellowcake...

Taylor Wimpey PLC InterimManagement Statement comes across exactly as thought. With such a predictable level of trading it was a credit to Pete Redfern, Chief Executive of TW. to find new terminology from normalisation and normal levels to moderated "but remained" positive. Over to Pete from the RNS, "We are encouraged that conditions have moderated but remained positive. Today we are operating in a UK housing market which is growing steadily and sustainably."

You'd be a fool not to like land especially in the UK where its limited for obvious reasons, building land and the land bank if sensibly optioned/bought is always going to be in demand. The problems will occur during the cuts. Its not rocket science to know the UK Government must balance their chequebook so more cuts on the way as the FT et al have all been covering Britainand the cuts: Election winner faces unfinished business. 

These cuts are likely to make people consider the value of their housing £. This doesn't mean there's an abyss for new home purchasers, more its likely to drive the existing housing stock sales (volume), not the prices. Expect some margin pressures on the house builders within the cycle, which all the house builders have been uncannily absent on commentating on. The market will price in the positives, because they aren't a negative...when should house developers be a premium or discount to NAV!?!? There is a common-sense answer.

The MOD is dealing with cuts (and potential cuts) and has some issues that its suppliers as they have always benefited from in terms of cost controls. This, I am reliably led to believe, delayed the Royal Navy’s new Type 26 frigate (do not fret I'm not getting in to boat spotting) where cost controls could not be agreed. So with one astute chap kindly pointing out that a recent discussion and visit to consider the French and Italian FREMM Frigate, is another bargaining tool being used against BAE in the negotiation process (expect news January 2015). 

Could the UK Government be giving Frenchies and I-ties the work...oh yes there's a real risk, oops possibility. It is however something Ministers are keen to see built on the Clyde in BAE's docks as an offset for the Scottish vote, more so if Labour get in. 

Afren (AFR) today announced that they had a decent weather window with an update on their NigerianOperations. In the news, AFR inform holders of the upside with spudding the Ameena East well on OML 115 and the Ebok Deep exploration tail targeting 50 mmbbls of gross unrisked resources. The deeper Qua Iboe and Biafra reservoirs is expected to commence in Q4 2014 following the completion of the third new producer at the NFB (North Fault Block). The cashflow for AFR is likely to improve significantly at the latter end of 2015. The sensible money would be post any Ameena East news...or to add.

Today's the day for Anglo Pacific (APF) to finally fez up about its write-down on the London Mining (LOND) with a £15M (GBP) impairment charge in Q3 Interim Management Statement (APF). For the savvy (quite a few readers here) they noted the connection with LOND and the lack of prospects for Isua license. What is surprising is despite the positives coming forward in terms of royalty, the royalty related income in the third quarter was a derisory of £0.5m. There's first production at and sales achieved at Maracás (Largo Resources) which APF expect a positive contribution to their balance sheet via royalty income during 2015. APF maintain their divi which is circa 7% and there's a reason for that. The jam of a high royalty transactions over producing bulk material and base metals is getting a little thin.

However Four Mile (The Uranium Mine in Oz operated by Quasar Resources (General Atomics Subsidiary) and Alliance Craton Explorer (ACE) isn't going as well with the threat of litigation already mucking things up. Production at Four Mile is expected to be 2.6Mlbs of uranium ore concentrate (2015), but as APF rightly point out royalty income deferred until 2016 due to Four Mile stockpiling production. 

With Four Mile production replacing that of their neighbouring Beverley plant (no royalty for APF) its surprising they're even bothering with production. If one is quick to assess Four Mile (& Partners) they need a Uranium price of +$41/lb (approx.) to even break-even. With stock piling being considered the best option, which questions the viability or perhaps evidences the issues within the JV.

Over to AllianceResources to upset the apple cart whom want the cashflow funding expansion. In September, Four Mile's cash costs per lb of UOC were $33.23per lb now circa $40.81per lb UOC (uranium ore concentrate(s)). Quite why Alliance Resources had not dealt with the sales issue within their contracts with the operator beggar’s belief, so voting against any budgets is immaterial to the outcome as they're the minority holder at 25%, the budgets will always be approved according to Quasar's requirements/demands (75% stake). 

There's rumours of a large seller (with relief) of yellowcake whom needed $39/lb well played...!

We welcome what will become a very illiquid stock almost from day one, Mortgage Advice Bureau (Holdings) plc. Please do not confuse this with the Citizen's Advice Bureau. 

No time to cover the trading in Gold and Silver today, but it would be wise to note the volume and slippage that occurred in Asia nor the Central Rand update (CRND). With the current cash costs, $150M is a hefy premium, alas they're saved thanks to the principles of a non-binding agreement. Amara Mining (AMA) or CRND, I know which I'd rather pony up $150M for!

Atb Fraser

Singing in the Rain: Utilities Sector, here it comes again!

There's rumblings from some gin drinkers back from Kuwait City and Canada (not at the name time) of some M&A activity in the Water/Utilities sector. With a shake up on the way by no later than 2017, its fair to say there's going to be opportunities akin to the Electricity / Gas markets. 

One would be wise to follow closely, with some clarity in the debt markets and the water sector having some visibility/resilience, This all comes post the  Queens speech (2013) (BBC) and Ofwat determinations (29 August 2014 draft determinations), the time is looking more than ripe. For those needing assistance with sleep I can recommend the Water market governance arrangements – a discussion document and other sources, in conjunction with the Ofwat docs. 

Over to LongRiver et al to finally decide what to offer, the final offer last time was 2200, so is one prepared to pay a 15% premium for the company? What say ye, 2285....or perhaps a new target, the Pru might have a spare 300M to throw in the kitty! Ignoring the likely write-downs at Kenmare (KMR). How long can negotiations go on for? 

It was a pleasure to note the Aussie contingent had sobered up enough to look in to the Chinese gold sales, but are they gold sales...I'm as confused as you are.

Atb Fraser

Morning Mumble: When news starts to smell...CNE (Cairn Energy)

Good Morning, a fabulous weekend with a Bonfire Bonanza which has no doubt upset all those dislike bangs and the festivities.

China October trade data shows signs of manipulation, hot money inflows - state newspaper. So it appears there's a difference between what China states is exported against what Hong Kong said it imported. Is there a common theme where covenants and capital controls are likely to be tested in due course with financial stress being felt across sectors. Will this only relate to Hong Kong is the question. Now you don't suppose the Chinese have a similar issue with their exports and invoicing as what they did with the copper and all other commodities that caused panic visits to various bonded warehouses. 

Additional reading on GS today, who's flogged their stake in ICBC, Goldman exits China's ICBC (Industrial and Commercial Bank of China). It looks like GS may be calling the top of the Chinese banking market. Clever management of their holdings?

Now as if by magic, Cairn Energy (CNE) today announce their Second oil discovery offshore Senegal, which they consider significant. There's gossip about the significance of the similarities between SNE-1 well (24km's away) and the FAN-1, for which being far from qualified in oil, I'll leave to gossip at the moment. The question is when will the Australian contingent sober up!

Serco's Strategy Review including the Contract & Balance Sheet Reviews; capital structure and funding; latest trading and outlook does not bode well for the stock, expect some punishment on the market today! Serco (SRP) had recovered of late, with a good run which without a doubt will be eroded today and then some! With a fully underwritten rights issue on the way, expect some tears from those holding long for hope. The question of why the rights issue is delayed...to evaluate the audited accounts? Give over...

Limited time to cover Lonmin's results with management contradicting the outlook, Gold (which spiked massively on jobs numbers the trade) and Uranium now  Kyushu Electric Power Co. to reopen as soon as early next year, With 48 reactors sitting idle and limited options, what other choices do Japan have? Perhaps the Abe and Xi were discussing power issues...I doubt it!

Atb Fraser

PM: Songbird (SBD)

The market being very slow to react to the news about the approach for Songbird. This saga has gone on long enough, and finally is coming to an end. The SP has been very slow to react...a positive for the longs. 

A quick profit all the same...for those tempted to stay in the word is £3.19 a share, which amazingly represents the last half yearly report..Adjusted NAV per share rose to £3.19 at 30 June 2014 from £2.90 at 31 December 2013, an increase of £0.29 or 10.0%. For those in long for Jan 2013, Dan S, JP and a few funds, congrats. 


Atb Fraser

Morning Mumble: MKS (The Denial or is it hope) & Morrisons (The trade)

Morning once again...Having gone long MKS (Marks & Spencer) purely on a technical level post 443 its surprising to be in profit . MKS I covered yesterday, technically speaking (and consensus with me currently) appearing as though MKS is being driven by a significant short squeeze. A risk of the negative game and something always to be considered where sentiment has been so negative for so long, in fact it should be number of your risks list, just below "margin" unless of course you like to operate at stress levels. 

With a similar occurrence happening today in MRW, I fail to see the positives in Morrison's turnaround story so far. There's a long way to go, the discounting is to get people back in the stores which is rather obvious really. The management, like Tesco, are getting back in touch with their customer. The Sun campaign, could be heralded a success on the basis of today's interim management statement, as they could have been worse.  

Sales declined with the total *excluding fuel were down by 3.6% (down 5.6% including fuel), and like-for-like* (LFL) sales were down 6.3% (8.0% including fuel). Online contributed 0.7% to LFL during the period. The relief is in the proactive management and buying is on the basis the management can add value at these levels, its more than likely. The net debt position is looking better than proposed £100m +ve. MRW now expect year-end net debt to be £2.3bn-£2.4bn, £100m better than initially guided and £400m-£500m lower year-on-year.

Its customary when volume and price appreciation in a stock happens to ascribe some form of justification other than certain parties being caught on the wrong side of the fence and buyers in the market. So with that in mind, its wise to reiterate the PE (Private Equity) story doing the rounds today. The key focus for PE being the online and debt levels, both of which positive and net debt is more than serviceable. The advantage with MRW is they haven't got a property portfolio with as many complex swaps and lease agreements as others [namely Tesco]. That's a quote from a chap reading whom has a very good understanding of PE requirements, + he's clearly is overpaid. 

Leggie, unlike poker and mugs (which we'll come to) one will honour the wine, despite it coming via a third party (:-)) rather than double the bet on PE interest. Albeit MRW has significant potential without a market listing. In fact, the attraction as an investment case could be stronger unlisted than listed, save for the PI holdings. 

Whilst typing this yet again its been wise to close further positions on MKS (the longs), one hopes the short only contingent can forgive me or get the car park ready for a second coming! The same for MRW...

Tate & Lyle's results were unsurprising really and when considering the dire state of sugar, one would be wise to consider corn, wheat and soya prices as well mirrored in part by phosphate/fertilisers and bumper harvest (as commented here). Palm Oil is recovering (more essential) thus deserves a premium. Carrying on from the FTML discussions, sucralose is still causing a sour taste (I know). One would be wise to keep a close eye on the Mexican US sugar debacle with High-Fructose Corn Syrup (HFCS) which has been going on near 13 years to the day. 

TATE's declines of Circa 37% are dire, (2013: 112M) today £66M. TATE would be wise to listen to the audio-cast by Chief Executive Javed Ahmed and Chief Financial Officer, Nick Hampton. Debt increases are welcome either albeit they're well financed. Over to the TATE for the summary, "Overview The Group’s results for the first half of the year were significantly held back by operational and supply chain disruption and an increasingly competitive market for SPLENDA® Sucralose." Or as Mr Ahmed calls the results "extremely disappointing." (Around 8 mins in). It's wise to listen to Mr Ahmed about labelling, texture sweetness and labelling. With the worst out the way TATE could be justifying a long...patience is best suited. How does TATE look in comparison to PureCircle...one for later, as I'm late for my R&R FTML. 

With delight, its nice to read the messages, its a shame people request they aren't not published as some are and have shown to be very valid especially with Sweett Grp and the like; they are known as the noisy whispering folk. The upset element will get published save for certain censorship items such as swearing and inappropriate references. 

Thanks goes to John C his concern that that my trading has sufficiently "funded my funeral." I would be wise to stick to Zebra crossings? Likewise, its safe to say he should stick to premium bonds with a vehement belief he'll make his £1.65 on POG (Petropavlovsk) where apparently I'll be laughing on the other side of my face. Sadly John C hasn't realised POG's debt position or their current position. So would he please look at the price of gold being $1,144.44/oz (no charge), their debt and the financing position of the debt/bondholders.

The top quote goes to a long only, shorters are scum comment about hoping I die of a death and go out of this world dead. Biology was never my strong point at school. I've edited both posts to avoid offence...

Atb Fraser

Morning Mumble: Gold (Au) loses its glitter but not its follower (Silver/Ag) & the sun is shining, honest.

At $1,144.49/Oz. down just under $1 (0.91¢) Au had its lowest fall for some time, but its buddy (silver/Ag) came a long for the ride losing even more as a percentage.  Now Hochschild (HOC's) All in Sustaining Costs for Ag are at 17.5$/Oz (a tad lower with the debt repayment my estimate is $17/oz.) its a wonder they have not sent their workers home and are buying it on the market to save a few $.

Now to save the face of a certain professional, I shall use this morning to point out the misunderstanding. Its asserted that HOC have saved $270M to improve the bottom line. There's no doubt as an investor/trader whatever term you need to use, savings made whilst maintaining production is always welcomed. Its akin to running a house at a lower cost as a basic example; this basic example is needed, because what is strange is this professional (and others) have failed to notice $22M of these savings are from suspension of the dividend. 

There's limited cuts available now save for stopping production and the immediate impact of paying down debt, one assumes they'll claim that as a $2+ an ounce saving, akin to not buying washing power or detergent one week when its needed for the washing. Over to HOC to keep us abreast of their savings. HOC holders won't mind if they save a few quid by stopping production. Ironically this should be considered if the 18 month average Ag drops below their all in sustaining costs. 

For those angry folk that were disappointed that yours truly hadn't headed to the nearest car park and hailed a victory to the longs as I learnt to fly, you were warned about HOC, like POG, like...and yet you choose to hug these shares in sheer desperation of a recovery. 150 pence was critical, 130 starting to tell the toll, 110 a sore lesson, sub £1 just silly, and circa 94-95 pence you really do need a mirror but there may be hope...not much but some. 

The Ag market is, like the Au, needing volumes. Something that was thought to be coming and disappeared as fast as it came, even with the Indian Wedding Season. The main reason to ditch ones positions and ride the direction.

HOC admittedly have reduced their net debt to circa $365.952m as they did repay some in October ($114.9 million) out of cash resources that at the interims was $225.550m now $110m. What's ironic is if HOCs Inmaculada plant can gets commissioned on time the peso could just be their friend and the holders, with potential for a relief rally. 

HOC, to their credit hedged 4,000,000 ounces of Ag at an average of $21.5/oz. Ag (Circa 20% of production (targeted 21m Oz. Ag)) and 33,000 ounces of Au at $1,338/ounce. This does assist but not much when the market is down at $15.31/oz (currently). 

Avocet Mining  (AVM) oblige us today with their third quarter results today, with everything reliant on the Carbon Blinding Circuit (CBC) to improve recoveries. Quite why a further Carbon in Leach (CIL) tank wasn't being considered before October is anyone's guess. The recoveries of 70% for Ag does not bode well and is reflected by the cash costs of $1,183/oz with guidance of $1200/Oz for the year. Quite why, when development is needed this company is unhedged is beyond sensibility, especially when considering AVM's cash costs, which are not disclosed as "all in sustaining." Should a company be unhedged in the current environment when requiring cashflow with the following (time for a picture folks):

Ignoring the fact their best cash cost period was Q1 2013, this company should have been hedged in Q4 2013 irrespective of the current cycle of gold. This is not hindsight, merely to ensure cashflow which is now "tight" at Inata. The only benefit in the short-term to holders being the lower oil/petroleum costs.





As such, this is one for the brave betting on some miracle of the CBC improving recoveries and AVM taking the post-it of their monitor with the live Ag price. 

Having got off the phone with Li, whose main concern is the over supply of Iron Ore and the lower take up of loans including China’s small lenders pull back as economy slows, he sent me the following link Li Keqiang chaired a State Council executive meeting to determine the strengthening of policies and measures to promote the further opening of imported coal resource tax reform. It also covers the promotion of import and importation requirements on businesses...worth a read; grab a translator.

As Amara Mining's (AMA) Directors acquire some shares (but small fry), yet again, it makes you wonder if their bet (and mine) is correct...time will tell...John McGloin, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer acquired a few shares. Staying with that theme, Randgold's 3rd Quarter Results are out, suffice to say it clearly states in the unwritten segment they need to acquire lower cost, high grade prospects to develop to avoid a deteriorating shareholder list and bottom line. 

Sadly or as some cheer, there is not enough time to consider the importance of yesterday's announcement by the Chinese Government to improve credit and support imports. Via Reuters China details measures to support imports as economy cools as the direct link disappeared to the article. With the Chinese economy normalising its with no surprise that in an effort to protect and adhere to growth the Chinese are proposing cutting by more than half the number of sectors restricted or off limits to foreign investors. Now who would have thought it! 

No time either for the Iron Ore stories overnight, but as it looks similar to my ramblings of past, you can read it here, Chinese traders tip iron ore to hit $US70. My final thought goes to a child I dropped off home yesterday that asked me...Fraser, you know, you know with Ebola can I have chocolate before Ebola. Answers to Lotti aged 5...

Atb Fraser

Morning Mumble: Marks & Spencer (MKS) (the relief trade) & precious metals, where is the support!?!?

Morning, today was busier than planned purely because of Marks and Spencer (MKS). Today's results were better than expected, albeit being short (they're a lot better than I expected). So on opening it was rude not to quadruple up. Merely on a technical basis, almost an admittance of being wrong but to cover those potential losses by trading on it. It could have been worse for the shorts and MKS had it not been for the covering early trading that enabled a temporary pause (trading opportunity) and to for me to reduce short losses. 

For those closing yesterday or going long, congrats. H/Y Results for 26 weeks ended 27th September 2014 show margin improvement and profit improvements, certainly without the significant declines that were expected. With guidance being upped the city long only investors will follow the positives (so they should). For myself it’s an opportunity to short on opportunity. Technically, 420/440 is significant, so MKS needs to stay above it...with Christmas and caution being given by the management the Food & Clothing giant may just improve its Food LFL over the festive period but clothing struggle to perform near the margin improvements that have been given today and revisions upwards (Discounting is already happening with other retailers.) 

In summary, food better than expected, online only 6% down (could have been worse) and clothing (at one point was ahead in womenswear) was still down. It's a very brave call to raise guidance but follow it with a sit on the fence with a statement...Despite some improvement in consumer confidence, market conditions continue to be challenging. As a result, we remain cautious about the outlook for the remainder of the year. However, we are confident that we are well set up for the key Christmas trading period. 

As was discussed yesterday in a conference call, with food prices being challenged (pricing and competition pressures) retail could benefit from the savings made in the food aisles of the big four. MKS has led a premium brand akin to Waitrose, so there's no reason why it shouldn't exponentially gain by people treating themselves to MKS instead of their standard fayre. 

To avoid disappointing, I remain negative on MKS, the share price rally does not validate the changes in the company but will trade the technical elements, currently long waiting the 440 level. There are glimmers of hope with the guidance revisions but the market is getting ahead of itself. There's pressure on to perform and this has been slow coming so far, history is an indicator of the future. 

Precious metals, with yet again a glimmer but disappearance of support. The targets, including mine (as mentioned the other day), are being revised due to the total lack of interest and support in the precious metals markets. Asia was absent of almost all support for gold and America wasn't fairing much better. Critically $1,146.80/oz. is no-man's land and the technical traders can subscribe no confidence to the price. Silver appears to be the lead with gold reducing its ratio, gold's ratio to silver is now approaching 74.6: 1. That must surely, without looking, be near the all-time high from 2009 (I should look but do not have the time). Technically something has to give, and gold, with this trade, one would be wise to keep an eye on any significant support for the long' in silver as this is likely to appreciate the most...Platinum Group Metals (PGM's) not exactly being loved with the Jo'burg physical on platinum being stressed (negatively).

Iron Ore, with the price being trashed and the economic data not looking so rosy, it was no surprise that the minor (I know) iron companies got trashed further. Atlas Iron (ASX: AGO) has been trashed, further than I imagined after that last update. Fortescue Metals (ASX: FMG) still having some safety but for how long? Over to GLEN for a piece of iron they do not really want but may have to. 

What are Centamin Egypt (CEY) playing at, their guidance not so long ago was maintained with 420K/oz.'s, less than a full calendar month ago. Today, there's a Sukari Update that advises a downwards revision in guidance due to lower monthly plant productivity during October and lower expected average grades for the fourth quarter from underground development ore. When should this update have come forth? Never mind, CEY kicked themselves two fold with the price of gold. If CEY's management have today only realised guidance and production will be lower, then who is hands on? Yes you could argue the % decrease until today did not require an update, but where there is a trend you'd be hard pushed to justify not updating earlier. 

Today's no news award goes to EMED, with an unsurprising extension (three months) to approve the Mining Permit for the Rio Tinto Copper Project, the Company confirms that it still expects to receive the final permitting before the end of the year. Now if there's a 3 month extension, the permit may come in time, but without removing ones socks 3 months takes us beyond the end of the year. Perhaps this update is due to the level of stale enquirers holding the stock. 

Not one comment on the wires of the lack of support for copper, off just over 4¢ a lb continuing the trend. It would appear someone is walking away with a health profit from some hefty trades. There's a few long faces over at the weald...after the last update would you have been a holder? As I type, in the left corner of my eye I note MKS is on the move positively again...nearing the 440 level (in between the top and bottom of this post I now have no position in MKS currently awaiting the 440 test).

Oil/Saudi Arabia if this momentum continues will not help many economies, stability in the oil price and gradual appreciation promotes growth. The declines in the short-term are a benefit to most economies but not the longer term. With oil under significant pressure the trading houses now have to realistically consider a lower hedge, those trading houses a head of the curve should benefit from this significantly (You're welcome). The bounce is expected (albeit short-lived) but it’s more a case of when. 

No time sadly to cover the JD Wetherspoon (JDW) like-for-like miss which the market is punishing...interim management statement.

Atb Fraser